Potential valuation of 8.5 billion dollars, how attractive is the JUP airdrop?

Written by: @mrink0, Delphi Digital

Compiled by: Luccy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: On January 30, Meow, co-founder of Jupiter, updated the JUP tokenomics on its social platform. The initial circulating supply of JUP will be 1.35 billion tokens, of which 1 billion will be used for airdrops, 250 million for launchpool, 50 million for CEX market making, and 50 million for on-chain LP demand. The token will officially open for trading at 10 AM EST on January 31. Additionally, the parameters for the JUP Launch Pool are: initial: 0.4, maximum: 0.7, curve 1.6, 250 million tokens. Meow stated that this represents that about half of the tokens will be available in the range of 0.4-0.5, so based on the final demand and orders, early users may have sufficient supply.

Delphi Digital researcher @mrink0 analyzed the value and price of the JUP airdrop allocation, and BlockBeats translated the summary report as follows:

The JUP airdrop is about to begin.

At 10 AM EST on January 31, Jupiter Exchange will conduct the airdrop.

@mrink0 timely released a detailed report containing all the important information about JUP. Here is a brief summary:

Jupiter: The Giant

Jupiter is the leading DEX aggregator on Solana. It serves as the quasi-front end of Solana DeFi, accounting for over 75% of the trading volume.

Today, Jupiter is a giant, offering five products: swapping, perpetual contracts, dollar-cost averaging, bridging, and limit orders. With an average weekly trading volume exceeding $3.5 billion, Jupiter has begun to surpass Uniswap.

After becoming one of the most popular protocols in the crypto space, Jupiter is ready to launch its native token JUP, backed by strong PMF and an emerging bull market.

Core Metrics

Speculation about the airdrop allocation value and JUP price is rampant. To shed some light on this discussion, let’s dive into the key numbers:

• Maximum supply of 10 billion
• 50% team, 50% community
• 4 rounds of airdrops (possibly once every January)
• 20% team allocation (with a 1-year lock-up period and a 2-year unlocking period)
• 20% strategic reserve allocation

Initial circulating supply of 1.35 billion:

• 1 billion for the first round of airdrops
• 250 million for the launch pool
• 50 million provided to centralized exchange market makers as loans
• 50 million for any urgent liquidity provision needs

@mrink0 previously worked at a CEX, responsible for running worst-case sell pressure models before each listing to ensure sufficient liquidity on the books. Any liquidity tokens traded at a positive cost basis are viewed as potential sell pressure.

Opening Price of JUP

JUP has already been trading on some pre-markets, such as Aevo. On Aevo, its price is currently $0.67, roughly ranging from $0.40 to $0.70, with a historical high of $0.85.

For reference in pre-market trading, here is the basic information sheet for JUP:

Thus, the market cap and FDV of JUP will be as follows:

Assuming the trading price of JUP reaches $1, its market cap will reach $1.35 billion, making it one of the top 60 tokens on CMC. Its implied FDV will reach $10 billion. Based on this metric, it will become the 18th most valuable asset among all crypto assets.

For arguments surrounding bullish and bearish scenarios regarding JUP, please refer to the full report.