# Introduction

Donald Trump, in the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, has adopted the slogan of "President Supporting Innovation and Bitcoin," proposing a series of disruptive cryptocurrency policy commitments that completely reverse his anti-crypto stance during his first term. He has repeatedly emphasized the goal of making the U.S. the "global cryptocurrency capital" and has put forward multiple policy proposals to support the development of cryptocurrencies.
This shift is not only a political strategy to attract votes from the crypto industry but also reflects the strategic consideration of the U.S. regarding the global status of the dollar—strengthening dollar hegemony through cryptocurrencies. This article systematically reviews Trump's cryptocurrency policy commitments, analyzes the progress and resistance in their implementation, and looks ahead to the impact of his domestic and foreign policies on the crypto market.

# Overview of Trump's Cryptocurrency Policy Commitments

1. Summary of Trump's Top Ten Cryptocurrency Policy Commitments

During the 2024 campaign, Trump proposed a series of policy commitments aimed at supporting and promoting cryptocurrencies, primarily focused on the following ten core directions:
1) Establishing a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Trump proposed to include Bitcoin in the U.S. sovereign reserve assets, using Bitcoin confiscated by the federal government through law enforcement actions as an initial reserve and legislating annual procurement targets. He believes that by establishing a Bitcoin reserve, the U.S. can dominate the global digital economy while providing new avenues for national wealth appreciation.
2) Dismissing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler: Trump criticized the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's "enforcement-style regulation" as stifling innovation and promised to remove him from office on his first day. He advocates appointing regulators who are friendly to cryptocurrencies to promote industry development.
3) Stopping the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Trump believes that CBDCs could pose a threat to individual freedom and has committed to permanently banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar, asserting that privately issued cryptocurrencies should play a larger role in the financial system rather than government-led digital currencies.
4) Supporting the development of stablecoins: Trump plans to establish a loose regulatory framework that allows stablecoins to access the Federal Reserve payment system, promoting their use as international trade settlement tools. He believes that stablecoins can enhance the efficiency of payment systems and reduce cross-border transaction costs.
5) Building a Bitcoin mining powerhouse: Through tax incentives, energy subsidies, and support for technological research and development, Trump hopes to attract global mining companies to the U.S., enhancing America's competitiveness in Bitcoin mining. This not only helps create jobs but also elevates the U.S. position in the global cryptocurrency ecosystem.
6) Defending self-custody rights: Trump advocates for legislation that guarantees users the right to control their private keys, opposing restrictions on transactions from self-custody wallets, asserting that individuals should have the right to manage their digital assets without government or institutional interference.
7) Repealing SAB 121 accounting rules: Trump believes that current accounting rules are unfair to crypto companies and hinder their development, planning to alleviate the burden on crypto companies' balance sheets to enhance industry competitiveness.
8) Terminating "Operation Choke Point 2.0": Trump promises to halt regulatory agencies' restrictions on banking services for crypto companies, ensuring that crypto firms can access financial services fairly.
9) Pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road: Trump stated he would consider pardoning Ross Ulbricht to symbolically support the libertarian values of the crypto community.
10) Establishing a Cryptocurrency Presidential Advisory Committee: Trump plans to create a dedicated advisory committee to develop a transparent regulatory framework, promoting the integration of the crypto industry with traditional finance. The government should collaborate with industry experts to formulate policies that benefit innovation and protect investors.

2. Reasons for Trump's Shift in Position

Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone a significant transformation from "high-profile skepticism" to "active embrace," driven by several underlying reasons:

1) Economic Strategic Considerations: Consolidating Dollar Dominance

The U.S. has enjoyed the benefits of the dollar as the world's primary reserve and settlement currency for years, but globally, the trend of de-dollarization and diversified settlement is accelerating. The stablecoins introduced by the crypto industry (most of which are pegged to the dollar) provide a new pathway for maintaining the dollar's status as the "global currency." The binding of stablecoins to U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar reserves can continue and amplify dollar hegemony in international financial markets.

2) Political Maneuvering: Attracting Voter and Capital Support

With the explosive growth of the crypto industry in recent years, the number and scale of individuals holding digital assets have significantly increased, especially among young voters and tech professionals, where crypto thinking has gradually become a "new trend." During the 2024 election cycle, political donations to candidates from both parties exceeded $200 million. Trump has keenly recognized the importance of this emerging force. Additionally, the funding and technological strength of these crypto companies can provide greater resource backing for Trump's campaign.

3) Personal and Business Interests: Promoting Trump Family Interests

Beyond the political and national strategic factors, the Trump family has potential interests in the crypto world itself. The Trump family-supported WLFI project has begun purchasing and holding Bitcoin and other digital assets such as ETH, WBTC, ONDO, TRX, LINK, AAVE, and ENA. They have also launched a token related to their image or brand, "Trump Coin" ($TRUMP), which briefly surpassed a market cap of $15 billion.

Regardless, if Trump vigorously promotes loose crypto policies during the campaign, it will undoubtedly indirectly enhance the value of his family's assets and create a broader stage for future business endeavors.

# Analysis of Progress and Resistance in Trump's Cryptocurrency Policy Commitments

1. Implemented Measures

1) Leadership Changes in Regulatory Agencies: Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the SEC, voluntarily resigned on January 20, 2025, and Trump appointed pro-crypto Paul Atkins to succeed him, pushing the SEC towards "guidance-based regulation." Additionally, Trump plans to nominate Brian Quintenz, the policy director at a16z and former CFTC commissioner, to serve as CFTC chairman.
2) Signing of Cryptocurrency Executive Order: On January 24, 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a cross-departmental task force to coordinate the development of a federal regulatory framework and banning CBDC development.
3) Repeal of SAB 121: The SEC rescinded this accounting rule in January 2025, alleviating financial pressure on crypto custody platforms.
4) State-level Bitcoin Reserve Pilot Programs: Several states in the U.S. have proposed or passed bills to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves, allowing state treasuries to allocate part of their budgets to Bitcoin.

2. Policies in Progress

1) National Bitcoin Reserve Bill: Senator Cynthia Lummis submitted the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act," proposing to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years, but it requires congressional budget approval and faces bipartisan skepticism regarding volatility risks.
2) Stablecoin Regulatory Framework: The Treasury Department, in collaboration with issuers, has launched the "Payment Stablecoin Regulatory Standards Initiative," aiming to establish an international payment framework within five years, but traditional banks will likely oppose the impact of stablecoins on existing payment networks.
3) Mining Support Policies: The "Bitcoin Energy and Technology Innovation Act" has entered the legislative process, proposing tax incentives for green mining, but there are still disputes over grid capacity and funding sources for subsidies.

3. Major Resistance and Uncertainties

1) Legislative Delays: Federal-level policies regarding Bitcoin reserves and mining subsidies require congressional approval, with the Republican Party holding only a slim majority in the Senate, and Democratic lawmakers criticizing them as "fiscal recklessness."
2) Judicial Challenges: Pardoning Ulbricht may provoke public backlash (he was sentenced to life imprisonment for drug trafficking and money laundering), and the legal process is complex.
3) Market Volatility Risks: If the national Bitcoin reserve plan is implemented on a large scale, it may exacerbate fiscal deficits due to BTC price fluctuations. The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, an increase of $139 billion from the previous fiscal year.
4) International Coordination Challenges: The opposition to CBDCs conflicts with the EU's MiCA regulations and China's promotion of the digital yuan, which may lead to a fragmented cross-border payment system.

# Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Legislation in U.S. States

Source: https://legiscan.com/

As of February 11, at least 27 states in the U.S. have participated in the Bitcoin reserve legislative race, aiming to diversify investments to combat inflation and enhance fiscal resilience.

1. States That Have Passed or Are Close to Approval

1) Utah: The Utah House of Representatives passed HB230 on January 28, 2025, allowing 5% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, high-market-cap cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins. The bill is currently under review by the Senate, and if passed, Utah will become the first state in the U.S. to officially establish a Bitcoin reserve.
2) Arizona: Senate Bill SB1025 has passed the Senate Finance Committee and is awaiting a vote in the House. If approved, Arizona may follow Utah in establishing a reserve.
3) Pennsylvania: In November 2024, Pennsylvania was one of the early states to propose a bill allowing the state treasury to use 10% (approximately $1 billion) of its general fund to purchase Bitcoin.

2. States with Bills Under Review

1) Texas: A bill proposed in December 2024 allows residents to donate to a state Bitcoin fund, requiring Bitcoin to be cold-stored for at least five years and prohibiting out-of-state transactions. The bill has not yet entered the final voting stage.
2) Ohio: Two bills (including Bill 57) have been proposed to establish a Bitcoin reserve fund and authorize the treasurer to purchase Bitcoin, currently in the legislative framework discussion stage.
3) Maryland: House Bill 1389 plans to use seized illegal gambling funds to purchase Bitcoin, expected to take effect in October 2025.
4) Kentucky: House Bill 376 allows state funds to invest in digital assets with a market cap exceeding $750 billion (currently only Bitcoin qualifies), with an investment cap of 10%.
5) Other States: Similar bills have been proposed in 15 other states, including Florida, Alabama, New Hampshire, and South Dakota, but most are still in the early legislative stages.

3. States Where Bills Have Failed or Been Blocked

1) North Dakota: House Bill 1184 was defeated due to a higher number of opposing votes (32 in favor, 57 against).
2) Wyoming: The bill did not pass the legislative process, with specific reasons not disclosed.

4. Federal-Level Developments

Senator Cynthia Lummis's proposed "U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act" suggests purchasing 1 million Bitcoins (5% of total supply) within five years and recommends using gold reserves or asset seizure funds to support the plan. Although the Federal Reserve maintains a conservative stance, the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration may accelerate the federal legislative process.

Source: https://polymarket.com/

# Impact of Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies on the Crypto Market

1. Tariff Policies and Trade War Risks

On February 1, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China and a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico (with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products). This policy is seen as a continuation of Trump's "protectionist" trade policies, aimed at protecting domestic industries and increasing fiscal revenue.
1) Short-term Market Volatility: Following the announcement of Trump's tariff policy, there was a strong risk-averse sentiment in the market, with the cryptocurrency market reacting quickly; Bitcoin's price fell over 6% within 24 hours, briefly dropping below $94,000, while Ethereum saw a larger decline of 27%, with prices falling to around $2,100. The market liquidation amount exceeded $2 billion.
2) Long-term Dollar Liquidity Contraction: If a trade war escalates and triggers a sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds (currently at $36 trillion), the crypto market may face pressure alongside risk assets.

2. Bitcoin Reserve Collateralization and High Volatility Risks

The Trump administration proposed to include Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserve assets (SBR), planning to purchase Bitcoin through the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to enhance economic resilience. The current U.S. government holds 207,000 Bitcoins (valued at approximately $10.4 billion); if the policy is implemented, Bitcoin's "digital gold" attributes may be strengthened, driving its valuation higher. However, the feasibility of this path is questionable. If Bitcoin is used as collateral for U.S. Treasury bonds, international creditors must recognize its value stability, while Bitcoin's high volatility may undermine its credibility as collateral.

3. Stablecoin Circulation Mechanism Concept and Compliance Risks

Trump's team hinted at reinforcing dollar inflow through a closed loop of "dollar—stablecoin—U.S. Treasury bonds." Currently, 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, with 80% of reserve assets invested in U.S. Treasury bonds, forming a cycle of "stablecoins purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds—U.S. Treasury bonds supporting dollar credit—dollars flowing back to the U.S." If this mechanism is scaled, it may deeply bind the crypto market to the dollar system while alleviating debt pressure. However, this mechanism relies on the regulatory compliance of stablecoins; if the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" promoted by Trump's new policies is passed, it may clarify the classification and regulatory framework for stablecoins, providing a policy basis for this closed loop.

4. Payment System Fragmentation Under U.S.-China Tech Competition

China is accelerating the promotion of the digital yuan (DCEP), expanding its influence in cross-border payments through digital yuan pilot programs, while the Trump administration firmly opposes CBDCs, instead supporting private stablecoins to maintain the dollar's dominance in payments. This "CBDC vs. Stablecoin" system confrontation may reshape the global financial landscape.

# Outlook and Conclusion: Opportunities and Risks Coexist

Trump's new crypto policies undoubtedly bring significant changes to the U.S. crypto industry, emphasizing a "strategic embrace" of the crypto market and somewhat altering the U.S. government's regulatory attitude towards crypto assets. However, the actual effects of the policies and future developments still face numerous challenges.
Historical data shows that Trump's commitment fulfillment rate is only 31%. This low fulfillment rate necessitates that the crypto industry approach Trump's new policies with caution, especially regarding his policy commitments. The success of Trump's new crypto policies still depends on resolving three core contradictions.
1) Balancing Innovation and Risk: Trump's new policies emphasize loose regulatory measures, attempting to provide space for innovation in crypto technology through deregulation. However, excessive looseness may lead to risks similar to past collapses, thus requiring the establishment of a more dynamic regulatory mechanism to find a balance between innovation and risk, avoiding excessive regulation that stifles technological development while ensuring market stability.
2) Conflict Between Political Commitments and Legislative Realities: The grand vision of the Trump administration, such as Bitcoin reserves, needs to overcome bipartisan political differences and fiscal constraints. In the U.S. political environment, the divergence of opinions between the two parties may significantly impact the advancement of crypto policies. The implementation of policies will face more political maneuvering, which also means that the crypto market will encounter greater policy uncertainties.
3) The Game Between Dollar Hegemony and Decentralization Ideals: While private stablecoins can consolidate the dollar's position, this approach conflicts with the decentralization ideals of the crypto industry. Decentralization has always been a core value in the crypto industry; however, Trump's policies may further integrate the dollar into the crypto market, and this contradiction may challenge the "anti-censorship" spirit of the crypto industry.

Overall, Trump's crypto policies present unprecedented opportunities for the U.S. and global crypto industries, but the implementation of these policies and market reactions remain full of uncertainties. For investors, it is essential to be wary of the reversibility of policies and the risks of market bubbles. The future of the crypto market relies on solidifying the technological foundation, such as Layer 2 scaling technologies, ZK proofs, and a more robust compliance framework. These technologies and compliance measures will help the market navigate cyclical fluctuations and usher in a true era of "crypto civilization."