The New York Times: Predicting the first batch of professional players in the market, who are already earning millions a year

Original Title: Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions.

Original Author: Benjamin Wallace, The New York Times

Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

BlockBeats Note: With the rise and popularity of prediction markets, a new breed of professional players has emerged: they navigate between probabilities and odds, making a living by predicting the future. In the hands of these professional traders, everything from geopolitical shifts to the wording of a politician's speech is transformed into profits in their accounts.

Recently, The New York Times interviewed several full-time traders who make a living from prediction markets, revealing how they convert vast amounts of information into real wealth. The birth of this profession marks the beginning of a new phase where "cognition is currency," and a group of sharp young individuals has taken the lead, attempting to dissect every fragment of the future using data and logic. Below is the original content:

26-year-old Joel Holsinger quit his job as a corporate accountant and has been fully engaged in prediction market trading for just two months, steadily moving towards his first profit goal of $100,000. It was the Tuesday before Thanksgiving last year, just before noon, and President Trump was about to hold his annual turkey pardon ceremony.

At that time, Joel Holsinger wagered $700 on whether Trump would say two specific words. The two leading prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, both launched "mention markets" betting products, allowing users to bet on whether the president would say a dozen words and phrases, including "hottest," "big beautiful bill," "radical left/far left," and "rigged election/stolen election."

He bought 500 shares of the "stuffing" no contract at 86 cents and another 500 shares of the "cheaper" no contract at 70 cents. These betting choices were almost entirely based on his research into the frequency of word usage in Trump's past speeches.

Joel Holsinger stated that Trump would almost certainly discuss topics related to affordability, but he has always preferred to use "lower" instead of "cheaper"; since last August, Trump has not used the word "cheaper," and in previous turkey pardon speeches, he has never mentioned "stuffing."

Even so, Joel Holsinger remained extremely cautious with his betting amounts. "The sample size is only four times," he referred to Trump's four Thanksgiving speeches during his first term, "I wouldn't do anything crazy."

On the Kalshi platform, which Joel Holsinger prefers, the odds for Trump not saying "stuffing" had dropped to 81 cents, while the market's expectation that he would say the word continued to rise.

"Does anyone have an exclusive advantage on this 'stuffing' bet?" Joel Holsinger asked into his headset. He was dressed in sweatpants and a T-shirt, sitting cross-legged in an office chair in a four-story walk-up apartment in South Williamsburg, Brooklyn, live-streaming to over 1,000 viewers who tuned in to hear the commentary of the blogger known as PredictionMarketTrader. He and his fiancée had recently moved here from Los Angeles, and there were still Home Depot boxes piled in the corner of the room.

The highlight he was eagerly anticipating was which of the two turkeys would receive the ceremonial pardon, Gobble or Waddle? Joel Holsinger bet $2,500 on Gobble.

He hadn't originally planned to place a bet, feeling that it was a shot in the dark and had not found any clues that would give him a betting advantage. He had even told his audience, "I really don't see any bullish reasons for Waddle," and "There are many supporters for Gobble, but I might just be trapped in an information bubble."

But just 30 minutes earlier, his friend discovered a new video from the Associated Press that seemed to confirm Gobble as the winner: during a White House press conference, a voiceover stated that although "both turkeys will receive pardons," Gobble "will be the official Thanksgiving turkey of the United States."

Such subtle differences in phrasing would go unnoticed by the average person, but for traders, it was invaluable information. The settlement criteria for betting projects on leading platforms are often buried in the fine print, scrutinizing words to the extreme. Other traders seemed not to have noticed this video, and the yes contract for Gobble was still selling for about 82 cents. Joel Holsinger immediately bought 2,475 shares; if he was right, he could earn about $425.

In the live broadcast from the Rose Garden, a turkey appeared on camera, its flesh wobbling at the beak, looking comical. "Is that turkey on stage Gobble?" Joel Holsinger asked loudly, facilitating discussion among the viewers in the live chat, "Can someone find a photo to compare?"

Trump's speech meandered, mentioning many of the words traders had bet on, including "affordable," "Walmart," and "egg."

"Now, let's grant a pardon to Gobble. By the way, Waddle is absent, but that's okay; we'll just pretend it's here…" Trump said.

Joel Holsinger's eyes widened instantly. He made a profit betting on Gobble's victory and earned another $250 betting that Trump would not say "stuffing" and "cheaper," as the president indeed did not mention either word.

However, at the end of the 55-minute live stream, Joel Holsinger felt a deep sense of regret, wishing he had been more confident and increased his bets.

"I’m too addicted to the internet; I don’t even recognize my own neighborhood anymore. I probably spend 16 hours a day on the computer. I should get out more," Holsinger said.

"At least we predicted correctly and got in early. But ultimately, we got in too early; I really should have increased my position. But everyone, this week is off to a good start; we’ve already made $1,300 from Sunday until now."

Will This Be a Signature Profession of the 2020s?

Before 2020, the only platform available for making a living by predicting current events was New Zealand's PredictIt, which set a maximum individual bet limit of $850 and restricted the number of traders participating in a single market. However, with the rise of Kalshi and Polymarket in the U.S., everything changed.

Now, thousands of real-time betting questions are available online around the clock, and anyone can choose a side to bet on: Will Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resign by the end of July? Will the U.S. confirm the existence of aliens?

Prediction markets have entered the cultural mainstream. CNN has partnered with Kalshi, and Google Finance has integrated real-time data from Kalshi and Polymarket. During CBS's Golden Globe live broadcast this month, Polymarket's real-time betting odds were displayed before the awards, and the company's founder and CEO Shayne Coplan attended the ceremony.

The industry has also received a political tailwind. In 2024, Polymarket traders bet over $3.6 billion on the election results between Trump and Harris. By the end of the election voting, prediction markets favored Trump, while average polling showed Harris with a slight lead. Trump's second administration has a friendly attitude towards the industry; his son Donald Trump Jr. is both an advisor and investor in Kalshi and Polymarket. Last November, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Polymarket to operate legally in the U.S. Other investment and betting platforms, such as Robinhood and FanDuel, have also entered the prediction market space.

Making a living by betting on prediction markets may become one of the signature professions of this era, akin to Wall Street traders in the 1980s, internet entrepreneurs in the 1990s, and influencer bloggers in the 2010s. The various social and cultural backgrounds that have birthed this profession have previously sparked countless in-depth discussions: an increasing number of young men are addicted to screens and online communities; traditional career paths are collapsing, giving rise to high-risk speculative investments that aim for big wins; in a post-trust, post-expert era, people are more willing to believe in mathematical probabilities and collective wisdom; everything is increasingly exhibiting "casino-like" characteristics. The emergence of full-time prediction market traders may be the convergence point of all these trends.

A successful prediction market trader, who goes by the pseudonym Domer and requested not to disclose his real name, candidly stated that television commentators can speak freely without facing consequences, while prediction markets involve "betting real money on commentary analysis," as the trading results directly affect financial gains and losses. Like Domer, many traders prefer to operate anonymously to avoid scrutiny from the IRS or to prevent disgruntled opponents from seeking revenge after losing money. As Domer put it: "If I made $2.5 million last year, that means someone lost $2.5 million."

"We are exploring better ways to predict what might happen in the future, and that is crucial," Domer continued.

Prediction markets clearly hold immense appeal for potential insider traders. Last December, an anonymous Polymarket user made over $1 million in 24 hours, partly because he placed an extremely contrarian bet that singer D4vd would become the most searched person on Google last year. This month, a mysterious account accurately predicted when Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would step down, earning over $400,000. Domer believes that the probability of this big player being an insider regarding the Nicolás Maduro event is between 85% and 90%, while the probability for the big player betting on the Google trending event being an insider is as high as 98% to 99%. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.

Most users on the two leading platforms are losing money, and betting on sports events has become a new option for a group of young men. Many of them are unemployed and burdened with student loans or credit card debt, yet they are making bets with slim chances of winning on user-friendly, gamified platforms. Individuals can bet on prediction markets once they turn 18, while most sports betting platforms in the U.S. require users to be at least 21. Additionally, since Polymarket and Kalshi have received federal approval, gamblers can even place bets on events in states where sports betting is prohibited.

"We are creating a generation that will abandon financial prudence, and a wave of personal bankruptcies is bound to come, along with a more severe mental health crisis," commented the CEO of a private lending platform recently. An academic study published last month found that convenient sports betting channels are associated with significant declines in personal credit scores, rising bankruptcy rates, increased debt, and higher rates of loan defaults.

Those who call themselves "trading experts" are mostly quick-reacting men who are willing to take risks, possess quantitative analysis skills, and have above-average information processing abilities. Today, the trading volume and liquidity in prediction markets are substantial enough that top traders like Domer can earn millions annually by identifying inefficiencies in the prediction market that provide advantages. Full-time traders report that the number of full-time practitioners in the industry is between "50 and several hundred." Analysis shows that less than 0.04% of accounts on Polymarket account for 70% of the profits.

High-volume, high-profit betting projects often attract the same group of trading experts. A recent example is: Will Zelensky wear a suit before July last year? The settlement process for this bet was quite tricky, as the outfit Zelensky wore at the NATO summit in June appeared to be a suit but did not conform to standard suit styles. Who will win the Romanian presidential election? In this bet, many trading experts bet on the right-wing candidate, who ultimately lost, resulting in losses for this group of experts, proving that their collective judgment was unreliable.

Ukrainian President Zelensky arrives at a formal dinner before the NATO summit in The Hague.

"This is the biggest loss I've ever had in my life," said a trading expert who goes by the name Iabvek. This trader, stationed in Arizona, lost $350,000 in the Romanian election bet. He requested not to disclose his real name, partly out of fear of being extorted. However, he also revealed that since November 2024, he has made $2.5 million. His trading career began with a $20 bet in high school when he used his mother's account to bet on Liz Cheney's victory in the 2016 Wyoming House election due to his underage status.

Finding Niche Markets

Every trading expert has their own winning strategy. Many of them could have thrived on Wall Street but find prediction markets more appealing. Some delve into legislative processes, others specialize in climate models, and some read niche industry newsletters. Iabvek stated that the number of professional traders in the industry is still relatively small, and one can still profit in the market with simple statistical models.

In exclusive Discord communities, many trading experts exchange information, such as insider tips on "safe bets." This is their term for low-risk, low-return bets, which, while not as guaranteed as U.S. Treasury bonds, are considered "sure bets" in prediction markets. Last year, when all 12 singles from Taylor Swift's new album topped the charts, many trading experts profited from this bet. "All the experts I know said this was the safest bet of the year," said 34-year-old Long Island trader Jonathan Zubkoff.

Jonathan Zubkoff's trading career began with a $100 bet, and he claims to have made $1.03 million in profits in 2025. He once called a congressional office as a voter to inquire whether a certain congressman would attend a particular vote. During the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election, Iabvek personally traveled to California, knocking on "thousands of doors" for field research, ultimately concluding that polls underestimated Governor Gavin Newsom's support. When Elon Musk hosted Saturday Night Live in 2021, the platform launched a bet on whether he would say "DOGE," and according to two trading experts, some traders were stationed outside Rockefeller Center, gathering information from audience members watching the rehearsal.

Some trading experts win through exceptional analytical skills. In January last year, trader Caleb Davies began betting against the trend, wagering that Bad Bunny would defeat the heavily favored Taylor Swift to become Spotify's most popular artist of the year. Caleb Davies is still working full-time in information technology; he discovered that in October 2023, Bad Bunny released an album but ultimately lost to Taylor Swift for the top spot; however, in January last year, Bad Bunny had released a new album, giving him more time to accumulate streams. As he predicted, on December 3, Spotify confirmed Bad Bunny won the title, and Caleb Davies earned over $20,000.

Bad Bunny performing in Puerto Rico last summer.

Some focus on specific areas. In addition to betting on political and weather events, Jonathan Zubkoff has built what he calls a "Bloomberg terminal for Rotten Tomatoes"—a custom data dashboard that integrates entertainment news sources and other relevant information. With this tool, he consistently predicts the weekly Rotten Tomatoes scores for movies accurately. He stated that even if someone were to replicate this dashboard, "I would bet that my speed in processing relevant information is definitely faster than others."

For trading experts, last year was a fruitful year, and this year's prospects are even more promising. The various uncertainties brought by Trump mean the market is filled with unpredictability, which also means there are more topics to bet on. There is a group of political fanatics who, like Taylor Swift's fans, will bet on their idols no matter what. The attention on prediction markets has also exploded; according to blockchain media The Block, Polymarket's monthly active traders reached 491,000 last month, a record high. A large influx of new funds has entered the market, including gamblers from other fields like sports betting and ordinary people who enjoy placing bets.

Stepping Out of the Internet, Still Profiting

Since January 2022, Domer has made $2.6 million solely on the Polymarket platform. Twenty years ago, freshly graduated from college, he made a living as a full-time online poker player but became frustrated with the illogical ups and downs of poker games. "If you play optimally for 40 hours straight and still lose money, you start to question life." You never know if your opponents are bluffing, making it impossible to analyze the reasons for failure.

Once, while waiting for a poker game to finish, he idly pondered what else he could bet on and discovered the Intrade platform in Ireland, where he could bet on Oscar awards. He believed film critic Roger Ebert had great insight, as Ebert had stated that "Crash" should and would defeat "Brokeback Mountain" to win the Oscar for Best Picture in 2006. Domer bet $10 on "Crash" to win and ultimately made $80. "This opened up a whole new world for me: I could bet like this."

In 2008, when Senator John McCain planned to announce his vice-presidential pick in Dayton, Ohio, Domer and a friend tracked all flights to nearby airports. When they saw a flight arriving from Alaska, they immediately placed a large bet that Sarah Palin would be the pick, reaping substantial rewards. Around that time, Domer gave up poker and fully committed to prediction market trading, as he found this job less stressful and more logical.

Now, Domer has over 1,000 unsettled bets at any given time, involving risk capital exceeding $2 million. He once wagered nearly $260,000 that Pope Leo would not become Time magazine's Person of the Year, which turned out to be his most profitable bet in 2025.

A trader named Domer in a park near downtown Greenville, South Carolina.

As the market continues to expand, competition becomes increasingly fierce, and trading is becoming more time-consuming. Domer's trading station is equipped with four monitors and a television, and he often orders Uber Eats. During the Israeli elections, his schedule completely followed Israel's time rhythm.

In 2017, Domer met his current wife, who at the time could not have imagined that she would marry someone living this kind of life. At that time, the mainstream betting platforms were still Betfair and PredictIt, with fewer events to bet on, less competition, and less capital involved; Kalshi and Polymarket had not even been established. "Imagine marrying someone like me, with my phone constantly buzzing with notifications and distractions. We're sitting down for dinner, and I might suddenly say, 'I need to go upstairs; Eric Adams just tweeted,'" he mentioned, referring to former New York Mayor Eric Adams.

He continued, "The 2024 election year is going to be chaotic. I told her, 'Just wait until July; we’ll go to Ireland and Basel, and it will be so much fun,'" referring to a city in Switzerland, "that I've always wanted to visit."

But at the end of June last year, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. performed poorly in a debate, triggering what Domer called "the biggest political betting event in history": Will Biden withdraw from the race? "I placed a significant bet on this matter." Ironically, in the weeks leading up to Biden's potential withdrawal, Domer was overseas "stepping out of the internet and experiencing reality," not deeply involved in the betting frenzy over "Will Biden withdraw," but instead holding most of his positions firmly, ultimately netting over $1 million.

Trader Joel Holsinger, who successfully bet on the turkey pardon event, looks up to Domer as a role model and harbors the same dream. This month, Joel Holsinger's total profits surpassed $144,000, and he began contemplating his next goal, perhaps $500,000.

He wants to take on greater risks in trading: "My win rate shouldn't be this high; it means I've missed many opportunities to act."

Fueled by citrus-flavored Zyn nicotine pouches and Celsius functional drinks, Joel Holsinger is fully committed to seizing the current opportunities. "Right now, I have only one thought: to go all out and take a shot."