ChainCatcher 消息，10x Research 发布研报，10x 表示其在去年 12 月 20 日曾警告，比特币可能因全球流动性收紧和美联储加息等宏观经济因素而承压，尤其是在 MicroStrategy 被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数后，市场情绪趋于谨慎。 昨日，比特币价格突破了关键的 95,000 USDT 支撑位，并且跌破了 92,000 USDT，引发了大规模的清算，达到 4.67 亿美元。技术面上，比特币形成了钻石顶形态，预示着价格可能下探至 73,000 USDT 左右的区间，符合此前夏季的震荡范围。 短期内，市场可能还会面临进一步的调整，尤其是在短期持币者已经出现亏损的情况下。然而，根据历史走势，比特币价格通常在下行至约 73,000 USDT 时会迎来反弹。虽然长期前景依然看好，但投资者应关注 2025 年美联储的政策变化，尤其是 3 月的可能转向。

ChainCatcher 消息，据金十报道，在美国银行 2 月份进行的外汇和利率情绪调查中，大多数受访者（58%）认为，如果美国 PCE 通胀年率超过 3%，可能会促使美联储加息。PCE 指标是美联储首选的通胀指标。 调查还显示，12%的受访者认为，5 年期/5 年期通胀盈亏平衡（基于市场的通胀预期）若高于 3%，将可能成为加息的触发因素。

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff has suggested that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates instead of lowering them, even if it leads to a market crash. He acknowledged that this approach could result in a collapse of the stock and real estate markets, leading to a hard landing and triggering a recession, emphasizing the potential severity of these market consequences.Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff recently shared his views on the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy, market rebounds, and the possibility of upcoming interest rate cuts on his podcast and social media platform X. Peter Schiff pointed out that decades of Federal Reserve policy have made an economic recession inevitable. He suggested that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates but should raise them, even if it triggers a market crash, which he believes is a "necessary collapse" to correct the economy.He stated, "The right thing to do is to raise interest rates further and let everything take its course. Of course, the stock market will crash. The real estate market will crash. We will have a hard landing. The economy will go into recession." Despite these views, the gold enthusiast acknowledged that market sentiment is increasingly confident about an imminent interest rate cut, possibly even before the September meeting. This expectation has already begun to influence market psychology.

ChainCatcher news, BTC Markets cryptocurrency analyst Rachael Lucas stated that the unusual flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs seems to be influenced by investors' uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, especially with a significant economic report expected to be released in the U.S. on May 31. If U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations, and personal income and spending trends rise, it may dampen investor optimism about the Fed potentially cutting rates in September. A more hawkish Fed could negatively impact the demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin and related ETFs.

ChainCatcher news, BTC Markets cryptocurrency analyst Rachael Lucas stated that the unusual flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs seems to be influenced by investors' uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, especially with a significant economic report expected to be released in the U.S. on May 31. If U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations and personal income and spending trends rise, it could dampen investor optimism about the Fed potentially cutting rates in September. A more hawkish Fed may negatively impact the demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin and related ETFs.

ChainCatcher message, according to Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 20th and announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5%.Based on economic outlook expectations, 9 of the 19 Federal Open Market Committee members believe that the federal funds rate could drop to between 4.5% and 4.75% by the end of the year. This means that, at a pace of 25 basis points per rate cut, the Fed may implement three rate cuts this year, consistent with the forecast made last December.

ChainCatcher news, market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continue to increase. Rate futures linked to the Federal Reserve's meeting dates show that the market is pricing in 6 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of next year, totaling 150 basis points.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 98.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 4.7%.The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged until February next year is 89.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at 10.3%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 0.3%.By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 21.5%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 70.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 0.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 100%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0%.In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting at 03:00 Beijing time on November 22.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% this week is 98.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0.0%. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged until December is 74.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 24.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 0.0%.The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for the U.S. on November 2 at 2:00 PM.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate hikes in July, raising the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level since 2001, in line with market expectations. According to the Federal Reserve FOMC statement, the Fed will continue to assess more information and consider further tightening monetary policy to curb inflation.Powell stated that when determining when to cut rates, both the level and the rate of decline of inflation need to be considered. He personally believes that there will be no rate cuts this year, and whether to cut rates will depend on the Fed's confidence in inflation returning to target. Subsequently, Powell added that if the Fed sees reliable relief in inflation, there would be no need for tightening measures. If inflation is seen to be steadily declining, the Fed could lower rates to neutral levels and then at some point below neutral levels. It is expected that inflation will not return to 2% until around 2025, but rate hikes could stop before inflation reaches 2%.Additionally, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after the July rate decision announcement, the market expects a 79.1% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at 5.25%-5.50% in September, a 20.3% probability of raising rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.50%-5.75%, and a 0.6% probability of raising rates by 50 basis points to a range of 5.75%-6.00%. (source link)