ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that the risk of a U.S. economic recession has now fallen below 50%. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, previously anticipated for September.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, during an interview with NBC, U.S. President Trump downplayed concerns about the possibility of an economic recession, stating that the U.S. is in a transitional period. He is not worried about a recession occurring during his term, but he does not rule out that possibility. When further questioned about whether he would take responsibility for the impact of his tariff policy on the economy, Trump stated that he would ultimately be responsible for everything.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the probability of the United States falling into recession in 2025 is 40%, up from the previous estimate of 27% in October last year.The global inflation rate is expected to reach 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with significant upward adjustments in inflation expectations for developed economies.The overall inflation rate in the United States will "rise significantly" by 1 percentage point, which is not solely due to tariffs. The depreciation of the dollar is orderly and has not caused fragmentation or turmoil in the currency market. The Federal Reserve will have to be "very vigilant" about the impact of unanchored inflation expectations on wages.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Index for March recorded -0.7%, the largest decline since October 2023.The Leading Economic Index is a forward-looking indicator system used to predict changes in economic cycles, published by The Conference Board, and includes 10 economic variables that reflect future economic trends over the next 3-6 months through comprehensive data. When the index declines consecutively, it may indicate a risk of economic recession; conversely, it suggests signals of expansion.

ChainCatcher news, according to official website data, the probability of predicting "the U.S. economy entering a recession by 2025" on Polymarket is 58%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 (previously forecasted at 2.2% and 2.0% in March). The probability of the U.S. entering an economic recession in the next year is 45%, the highest level since December 2023.The inflation expectations for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 have also seen the largest upward adjustment since March 2023.

ChainCatcher news reports that the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of this prediction market has reached $2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026.Data shows that the probability in this prediction market has been steadily increasing since early March, climbing from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces a recession in 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the prediction will be deemed "yes."

ChainCatcher news indicates that during the early trading session, the Japanese yen strengthened against the currencies of 10 G7 countries and Asian currencies. Ray Attrill, an analyst at the National Australia Bank, commented that the U.S. will announce a 90-day suspension of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff rate, which "does not help alleviate concerns about the U.S. potentially falling into recession." "With risk aversion returning, there is no support for the dollar." Attrill added that the yen and Swiss franc appear to be the "only true safe havens" in the forex market.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC citing The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Trump privately acknowledged that his comprehensive and high tariff plan announced last week could lead to an economic recession, but he is more focused on avoiding an economic depression.U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that the collapse of the bond market prompted Trump to adjust trade policies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that the probability of an economic recession reflected by stocks closely related to the U.S. economy has surged to nearly 80%.At the same time, despite potential increased funding pressure, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan's market-based economic recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has been severely impacted in the recent sell-off, currently reflects a recession probability of 79%. Other asset classes are also issuing warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a recession probability of 62%, basic metals indicate a probability of 68%, and the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond corresponds to a probability of 54%. In contrast, the probability of an economic recession reflected by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, while this probability was zero last November.

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in an interview with Bloomberg that we will see "more signs of economic slowdown" in the coming months. Several corporate executives contacted indicated that "we are likely already in a recession."In addition, Larry Fink also expressed concerns that if "all proposed tariffs are ultimately implemented," it would further raise inflation.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, Trump's tariff plan is much more aggressive than the market expected, triggering strong investor concerns about a full-blown trade war leading to an economic recession. On Thursday, all three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Nasdaq dropping 5.97%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020; the S&P 500 fell 4.84%, and the Dow Jones dropped 3.98%, both the largest single-day declines since June 2020. Major tech stocks plummeted, as tariffs are expected to impact the supply chain, with Apple falling over 9%. The market capitalization of the "Magnificent 7" evaporated by about $1 trillion in a single day, reaching its lowest point since early August last year.The cryptocurrency market also saw a widespread decline. Bitcoin fell from a high of $88,000 before the tariff announcement to nearly $81,000, a significant drop, but still relatively strong compared to tech stocks. Various sectors of the market experienced widespread losses, with the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization dropping nearly 8%. The crypto fear and greed index, which had recovered in March, fell back into the "extreme fear" range.The foreign exchange and commodity markets were also affected, with the dollar index falling 1.61% to its lowest level since October 2024, erasing all gains since Trump's election; the outlook for slowing global economic growth caused oil prices to plummet nearly 7%, marking the largest single-day decline since July 2022. Spot gold prices fluctuated narrowly, remaining basically flat compared to the previous trading day.Trump's tariffs have caused a bloodbath in the financial markets, and the non-farm payroll report for March is set to be released tonight. Before the potential impact of import tariffs on the data, the labor market is expected to remain stable. The market is closely watching Powell's speech, and according to the CME FedWatch tool, traders' pessimism about the U.S. economic outlook has significantly increased the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the number of expected rate cuts this year rising from two a month ago to four.

ChainCatcher news, International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesperson Julie Kozack stated on Thursday that the organization is continuing to assess the impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff plan (including the new 25% auto tariff), but its baseline forecast does not anticipate an economic recession in the United States.When asked about Trump's tariff plan at the IMF's regular press conference, Kozack said that tariffs imposed on goods from Canada and Mexico, if sustained, would have a "significant adverse impact" on the economic outlook of those countries, but she declined to provide specific details. She stated that the IMF is continuing to evaluate the impact of the various tariff measures announced by Trump on other regions.

ChainCatcher news, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi stated that he believes the risk of an economic recession is "uncomfortably high" as the market reacts to Trump's tariff agenda.Zandi said, "The risk of recession is uncomfortably high and is rising." "I think the probability is less than 50%, but it really depends on the president and what he does here." Zandi mentioned that if Trump continues to push his tariff plan, including reciprocal tariffs on other countries, and these tariffs last for three to five months, it would be enough to "push the economy into recession." "It would be a very strange recession, right?" "I mean, it's a designed recession," Zandi remarked.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Avenue Capital Group co-founder and billionaire Marc Lasry stated that the uncertainty of Donald Trump's policies, especially regarding tariffs, is hindering investors who want to take advantage of market opportunities."When the market doesn't know what to do, that's a problem," the 65-year-old Lasry said on Friday at a credit opportunities seminar at New York University. "In such a situation, an economy cannot escape; it will only lead to everything slowing down, potentially pushing the economy into a recession."

ChainCatcher news, K33 analysts stated that despite a widespread sell-off in the market due to concerns about an economic recession, President Trump's "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" executive order is still a "big deal." Additionally, analysts expect U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to clarify budget-neutral Bitcoin acquisition measures before May 5.

ChainCatcher news, Alec Kersman, Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated that due to the implementation of tariff measures by the United States, the likelihood of the U.S. falling into an economic recession this year has increased, estimating the probability at 35%. This probability is higher than the 15% assessed by Pimco last December.Nevertheless, Pimco's fundamental forecast for the U.S. economy is growth of 1% to 1.5%, although this is a "significant decline" from previous expectations. Kamal Bhatia, President and CEO of Principal Asset Management, stated that such trade policies will promote domestic consumption, helping the U.S. economy grow above expectations. Consumer spending on goods and services accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Bhatia noted that the increase in domestic spending triggered by tariffs is "highly likely" to drive U.S. GDP to "perform better than expected."

ChainCatcher news, economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised the risk of an economic recession this year from 30% in early 2025 to 40%.The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts wrote, "Due to extreme policies in the U.S., we believe the risk of the U.S. falling into recession this year is significant."Previous news, Morgan Stanley economists downgraded their economic growth expectations last week and raised their inflation expectations. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news, Trump's remarks over the weekend about the U.S. economy facing a "transformation period" weakened investors' confidence in a policy shift amid the backdrop of a market crash, exacerbating economic concerns.According to 4E monitoring, on Monday, all three major U.S. stock indices plummeted, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7%, marking a new closing low since September last year; the Dow Jones dropped 2.08%, erasing gains since the U.S. elections in November; the Nasdaq fell 4%, recording the largest daily drop since September 2022. Major tech stocks all declined, with Tesla closing down over 15%, the largest drop since September 2020, and its stock price halved from its historical high. The combined market value of the seven major tech companies evaporated by over $830 billion on Monday, setting a record for the highest single-day market value loss.The "Black Monday" in U.S. stocks crashed the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin hitting a low of $76,600, the lowest in nearly four months, essentially returning to the level when Trump won the election last year. At the time of writing, it has slightly rebounded to $79,125, with a 24-hour decline of about 3.5%. Mainstream altcoins, including ETH and SOL, were also severely affected, with Ethereum dropping below $1,800, marking the lowest since October 2023.In the foreign exchange market, risk aversion pushed the dollar index up slightly, while the oil market faced pressure, with international oil prices falling by 1.5%. Affected by profit-taking and a weakening stock market, spot gold dropped by 0.7%.In the past two months, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy has intensified market fears of a U.S. economic recession. An increasing number of viewpoints suggest that to achieve long-term goals of tariffs and reducing government size, Trump may tolerate short-term economic and market difficulties. Currently, the Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period ahead of the March 19 FOMC meeting, and the market cannot gain new policy guidance from officials' statements.