Market Sentiment

QCP Capital: Bitcoin finds weak support at $80,000 and will closely monitor any dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that it has been exactly one month since the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, and the market frenzy that once dominated Wall Street and Main Street, along with the narrative of American exceptionalism, has faded. Market sentiment has clearly shifted, and the pressing question now is: "How much longer will this pain last?"The latest victims of the market downturn include some of the largest macro hedge funds, which were forced to stop losses during this month's plunge. Millennium reported losses of $900 million from just two teams, while Brevan Howard's flagship fund has dropped 5% year-to-date, prompting it to impose stricter risk limits on traders. For these traders, the music has not completely stopped, but it is undoubtedly slowing down.The biggest near-term risk is the upcoming April 2 deadline, when Trump is expected to announce a new round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most direct resistance facing risk assets. Tonight's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, QCP Capital will closely monitor any dovish shifts, particularly regarding changes in growth and inflation expectations. Given that the impact of tariffs takes months to ripple through the economy, the Fed is expected to remain in "wait-and-see" mode. While the tariff decision on April 2 has already been hinted at, it remains a key uncertainty.

Santiment: Cautious market sentiment may continue to dominate before a significant increase in trading activity

ChainCatcher news, according to Santiment analysis, since peaking on February 27, the trading volume across the cryptocurrency market has been steadily declining. After further declines in market capitalization over the past two weeks, trader behavior shows a mix of fatigue, despair, and capitulation.The report analyzes that when the trading volume of major cryptocurrencies continues to decline, even during slight price recoveries (as seen on Wednesday), it usually indicates that trader enthusiasm is waning. In this scenario, traders become cautious, suggesting they may not believe the current price increase will be sustained. Essentially, the decrease in trading activity reflects uncertainty, as fewer traders are confident that buying at current price levels will yield profits.The weakening trading volume during a mild price rebound could be an early warning sign of diminishing market momentum. Without strong buying participation, price gains may quickly lose momentum due to a lack of sufficient support to maintain an upward trend, which could lead to any rebound being temporary, with prices susceptible to decline again.To show a healthier and more sustainable recovery, bulls typically hope to see both price increases and trading volume rising simultaneously. Cautious market sentiment may continue to dominate until there is a significant increase in trading activity.
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