QCP Capital

QCP Capital: It is expected that Bitcoin will consolidate in the range of $92,000 to $95,000 during the U.S. market closure today

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin rebounded to $95,200 last night after successfully testing the key support level of $92,500. However, following the news that the U.S. government plans to sell seized Silk Road Bitcoins, the outlook for Bitcoin turned bearish in the Asian early session today.Cryptocurrency prices continue to be affected by macroeconomic headwinds, with last night's release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes showing a more hawkish stance. The Fed stated that it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts due to rising inflation risks. The ADP employment report released yesterday also added to macro uncertainty, showing a slowdown in private sector hiring and wage growth. This stands in stark contrast to the stronger job market depicted by Tuesday's JOLTS job openings data.In the options market, the curves for all maturities steepened, with the 3-6 month spread widening by 1.5 volatility points, and the 6-12 month spread rising above 1 volatility point. Trading desks continue to observe that near-term volatility is under pressure, with at-the-money options expiring on January 17 dropping by 3 volatility points compared to last night.QCP expects that during today's U.S. market holiday, Bitcoin will consolidate in the $92,000-$95,000 range. If it breaks below $92,000, it may further test the $90,000 round number.

QCP Capital: Bitcoin remains firmly driven by market sentiment, with little impact from this week's Federal Reserve meeting

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated today that earlier in the Asian session, Bitcoin surged past $106,500, reaching another milestone. In the past 12 hours, the total amount of short liquidations reached approximately $151 million, driving this rally, as the weekend market lacked liquidity and traders became overly complacent (the funding rate on Deribit briefly turned negative), leading to a squeeze on short positions in the market. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reached an all-time high during this wave, further highlighting Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" and solidifying its position as a more popular store of value than traditional gold.The inclusion of MicroStrategy in the Nasdaq 100 index further boosted market sentiment. Michael Saylor hinted that even if the spot price exceeds $100,000, the company may continue to purchase Bitcoin. This inclusion could attract passive capital into MicroStrategy's stock, thereby indirectly making it easier for the company to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. This week's Federal Reserve meeting seems to be merely background noise for Bitcoin, as its movements remain firmly driven by market sentiment. Although the likelihood is low, if the Federal Reserve and Powell take an extremely dovish stance, it could still provide support for further increases in Bitcoin.

QCP Capital: Macroeconomic market volatility has eased, and Bitcoin still needs key catalysts to break through $100,000

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Bitcoin recently faced $1.5 billion in long liquidations, with the price plummeting by 3,000 points before rebounding at the critical support level of $95,000, currently consolidating in the $97,000-$98,000 range. This round of correction has also affected many altcoins.In terms of institutional entry, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for 8 and 11 consecutive days, respectively. Mining company Riot Platforms announced it would follow MicroStrategy's strategy, planning to issue $500 million in zero-coupon convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin, a plan that has already garnered strong market demand. Notably, Microsoft shareholders will vote today on incorporating Bitcoin into the balance sheet. Although the board recommends against it, approval could lead to an unexpected surge. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Amazon shareholders are also pushing for Bitcoin to be used as a reserve asset.QCP points out that with the political situation stabilizing in France and South Korea, and China's commitment to launching economic stimulus policies, macro market volatility has eased. Bitcoin and Ethereum's short-term volatility remains high and leans towards put options. Analysts believe that a breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold for Bitcoin still requires key catalysts.
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