United States

4E: U.S. September CPI exceeds expectations but labor market slows, probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November increases

ChainCatcher news, the CPI report on Thursday showed that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations across the board, hindering the process of inflation retreat. Another piece of data indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in over a year. The market is increasingly focused on the impact of a slowing labor market, with traders betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 83.3%, while the probability of pausing the rate cut stands at 16.7%.According to 4E monitoring, after the data was released, U.S. stocks opened lower, attempted to turn positive at midday, and then collectively closed lower again. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.05%. The cryptocurrency market mostly declined, with Bitcoin once again falling below the $60,000 mark, quoted at $60,533 before publication. Non-U.S. currencies showed mixed results, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut heating up, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index; oil prices surged over 3.5% after two days of decline, influenced by tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane "Milton"; expectations for a rate cut provided support for gold prices, with spot gold rising over 0.9% at one point, ending a six-day decline, while spot silver rose over 2.2%, ending a three-day decline.The CPI increase in September exceeded expectations, intensifying discussions in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts. However, the series of statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that employment is the dominant factor in current policy, and the employment data for October will be crucial in determining the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's easing. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

QCP Capital: Remains optimistic about Bitcoin's strong performance in October, with this week's CPI data being crucial

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that despite a turbulent start to the month, Bitcoin's upward trend in October seems to be back on track. Currently, the Bitcoin price is comparable to last Monday's level. QCP notes that the "Uptober" narrative, along with strong non-farm payroll data, has helped Bitcoin find strong support around the $60,000 mark. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary is also bringing more mainstream attention to the cryptocurrency, and meme tokens related to Len Sassaman are starting to gain traction.Despite a poor start last week, options flow still points to a bullish fourth quarter, with investors continuing to buy the $75,000/$95,000 call spread expiring in December. Considering the potential for future interest rate cuts and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, QCP remains optimistic about October's strong performance. This Thursday's U.S. CPI data will be the market focus. Recently, U.S. wage and employment data has been strong, and the market will closely watch for any signs of rising inflation. The Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted from 50 basis points to 25 basis points within a week, and this week's data may determine whether further adjustments to rate cut expectations will be made.
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovators