investor sentiment

Viewpoint: Bitcoin is undergoing a "shakeout" rather than the beginning of a bear market, and the four-year cycle remains a key factor

ChainCatcher news indicates that the current price of Bitcoin has dropped 22% from the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration. Although investor sentiment has repeatedly fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has not yet ended, and this drop may be a "shakeout"—a sharp decline triggered by long positions being liquidated, followed by a rapid rebound.Bitfinex analysts point out that "multiple key technical indicators have turned bearish, raising speculation about an early end to the bull market. However, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin remains a key factor; history shows that pullbacks during bull market cycles are normal, and this is more likely a shakeout rather than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom for Bitcoin may align with the U.S. stock market (especially the S&P 500), with $72,000 to $73,000 still being a critical support range, but global bond yields and stock market trends will dominate Bitcoin's next moves. The risks of a trade war have been partially priced in, but long-term economic pressures may suppress sentiment." Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stated, "Although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has fallen to a historical low of 8%, the halving event remains crucial for long-term price trends. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, and since then, Bitcoin has accumulated over a 31% increase. Although the ETF purchases driven by institutional adoption over the past year have become a major force, the halving effect will continue to influence the market."

QCP Capital: Remains optimistic about Bitcoin's strong performance in October, with this week's CPI data being crucial

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that despite a turbulent start to the month, Bitcoin's upward trend in October seems to be back on track. Currently, the Bitcoin price is comparable to last Monday's level. QCP notes that the "Uptober" narrative, along with strong non-farm payroll data, has helped Bitcoin find strong support around the $60,000 mark. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary is also bringing more mainstream attention to the cryptocurrency, and meme tokens related to Len Sassaman are starting to gain traction.Despite a poor start last week, options flow still points to a bullish fourth quarter, with investors continuing to buy the $75,000/$95,000 call spread expiring in December. Considering the potential for future interest rate cuts and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, QCP remains optimistic about October's strong performance. This Thursday's U.S. CPI data will be the market focus. Recently, U.S. wage and employment data has been strong, and the market will closely watch for any signs of rising inflation. The Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted from 50 basis points to 25 basis points within a week, and this week's data may determine whether further adjustments to rate cut expectations will be made.
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