ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, after the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March dropped from 14.5% to 8.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose from 85.5% to 91.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the non-farm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in November, revised up by 49,000 from 212,000; the non-farm payroll employment in December was revised up by 51,000 from 256,000 to 307,000. After the revisions, the total increase in employment for November and December is 100,000 higher than before the revisions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded 143,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 170,000, marking a new low since October of last year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, based on the expectations of major investment banks, the forecast range for non-farm payrolls is between 60,000 and 250,000, with most expectations concentrated in the range of 140,000 to 200,000, and the market consensus is an increase of 170,000;The market consensus for the unemployment rate is 4.1% (accounting for 68%), followed by 4.2% (accounting for 24%), 4.0% (accounting for 6%), and 4.3% and 4.5% (accounting for 1% each);The market consensus for the year-on-year average hourly wage growth rate is 3.8% (accounting for 49%), followed by 3.7% and 3.9% (accounting for 28% and 14% respectively);The market consensus for the month-on-month average hourly wage growth rate is 0.3% (accounting for 75%), followed by 0.4% (accounting for 21%).When the data falls within a less expected range, its impact on the market is greater.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data at 21:30 tonight, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 14.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 3.7%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 32.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 63.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the financial website Forexlive indicates that the January non-farm payrolls are likely to show better-than-expected numbers. Another factor to keep in mind is the wildfires in California in January, which may cause temporary impacts.

ChainCatcher News, the United States will release the January non-farm payroll report tonight at 21:30 Beijing time. Economists generally predict an increase of 170,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 4.1%.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data reached 256,000, far exceeding the expected 164,000, indicating signs of an overheating economy. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, coupled with concerns about inflation that may arise from the potential reactivation of tariff policies from the Trump era.Despite macro pressures and ongoing Silk Road FUD, Bitcoin and Ethereum support levels have temporarily stabilized at $91,000 and $3,100, respectively. The volatility in the options market has gently declined, maintaining a slight bearish bias only before Trump's inauguration. This week, PPI, CPI, and unemployment data will be released sequentially. Against the backdrop of a continuously warming U.S. economy, this week will be a critical period to test the inflation hedging function of cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Gregory Faranello, head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, stated that this is a very reliable report that supports the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to skip this month's meeting and possibly more.At the transition between two administrations, this is also an important figure. The focus now shifts to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong job market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payrolls were released, spot gold fell short-term by 13 dollars, currently reported at 2667 dollars/ounce; the dollar index DXY rose more than 50 points in the short term, currently reported at 109.72.

ChainCatcher news, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for December increased by 256,000, expected 160,000, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 212,000, reaching a new high since March 2024.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, based on the expectations of major investment banks, the forecast range for non-farm payrolls is 120,000 to 200,000, with most expectations concentrated between 140,000 and 185,000. The market consensus is 160,000; the market consensus for the unemployment rate is 4.2% (65% share), followed by 4.3% (30% share), 4.1% (3% share), and 4.4% (2% share). The less common the expected range is, the greater the impact on the market when the data falls within it.

ChainCatcher message, the U.S. December non-farm payroll report will be released at 21:30 Beijing time tonight.The U.S. December unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment for December is expected to be 160,000.

ChainCatcher news, Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst expects that the non-farm payrolls in December will only add 120,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. This will remind the market that the labor market has not yet stabilized and continues to weaken. However, she believes that once some of the current instability factors fade, companies will continue to increase their workforce, even at a gradual pace. The overall situation will remain stable, without drastic changes. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, showing little change. Employment in sectors such as healthcare, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance is on the rise. Retail jobs decreased. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, expected to be 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," before the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 72.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27.9%.

ChainCatcher message, according to Jinshi reports, economists expect that the November non-farm payroll report will show that the U.S. created 200,000 jobs in November, while only 12,000 jobs were added in October due to distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Compared to the 4.1% unemployment rate in October, the unemployment rate in November may slightly rise to 4.2%. Meanwhile, after a 4.0% increase in October, average hourly wages are expected to grow by 3.9% in November. Powell stated at an event this week that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates, as the economy is still growing, the job market is stable, and inflation remains above the 2% target.TD Securities analysts, in anticipation of the November non-farm report, indicated that as the impact of the two hurricanes gradually fades, 75,000 jobs are expected to return to the average in November. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1% to 4.2%, while the month-on-month wage growth may decrease to 0.2% after a significant increase of 0.4% in October.

ChainCatcher news, BNP Paribas analyst Andrew Hespie stated that U.S. employment in November may rebound, but the non-farm payroll report may be ambiguous enough to merely support the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in December. The forecast for new jobs is expected to reach 225,000, higher than the consensus estimate of 214,000 in a Wall Street Journal survey.Hespie expects the 12,000 new jobs figure suppressed in October due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike to be revised. Uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections may also have somewhat restrained hiring activity in October. Hespie added that adverse weather may have limited the labor force participation rate in October, and the rebound in November could see the unemployment rate rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, ING analyst Chris Turner stated in a report that the market remains cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release in November, with the dollar holding steady.Weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data could disrupt the recent strengthening trend of the dollar since Trump's election victory, although it is unlikely that the dollar will appreciate again for a long time. U.S. employment numbers are expected to rebound after a weak month last time. A growth of fewer than 200,000 jobs may be considered a "bad number," while more than 300,000 is seen as a "good number." ING suggests treating any dollar decline as a buying opportunity. (Jin Shi)