Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin typically performs weakly in Q3, with an average return of 6%

ChainCatcher news, according to the Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, having risen nearly 50% from the April low of $74,600. Recent price fluctuations have narrowed, reflecting a cooling of on-chain and derivatives market activity, with spot trading volume decreasing, buying pressure weakening, and open interest falling by over 7%, indicating that the market is transitioning from a strong uptrend to a consolidation phase. The realized price for short-term holders is approximately $98,700, which has recently served as a key support level attracting buying interest.

Looking ahead, historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return of 6%. Price volatility is expected to further decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range.

On the macroeconomic front, U.S. consumer spending is slowing while inflation remains high, with personal income and spending both declining in May, and core inflation rising to 2.7%. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term has diminished, with policy focus still on balancing price stability and economic growth risks.