Analysis: Bitcoin's price range of $60,000 to $70,000 is a deep bear market zone, with 50% of the chips likely to be at a loss

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage) is used to observe the levels of market optimism and panic, with the 7-day average now below 70%. Historical experience shows that the first drop in past cycles from bull to bear typically reaches this position, followed by a rebound after extreme sentiment is suppressed. Whenever PSIP is below 50%, it marks a deep bear moment in the larger cycle, and it is also the most cost-effective and worthwhile price range to buy.

Currently, the BTC price remains at $92,000, and UPPD data shows that 6.7 million BTC are in a state of unrealized loss, accounting for 33% of the total circulation. Assuming that low-position chips are no longer sold, when the price drops to $59,000, 9.744 million BTC will become trapped chips, at which point PSIP will be around 50%. Since PSIP is continuously dynamic, using it as a static value assessment only represents a rough range. Based on experience, if BTC enters the $60,000 to $70,000 range, PSIP will likely drop below 50%, indicating the onset of a deep bear phase.