Glassnode: Short-term Bitcoin investors have been in a state of unrealized losses since November 2025

Glassnode released data on social platforms indicating that the STH-NUPL metric (which measures the ratio of new investors' unrealized profits and losses relative to the market cap of short-term holders) shows that new investors remain in a state of net unrealized losses. To bring this group back to a net profit state, it seems that a Bitcoin price rebound to around $98,000 is the minimum threshold.

According to ChainCatcher, based on historical patterns of bear markets and significant corrections, the continuous decline during a bear market may lead these short-term holders (STH, new investors) to gradually hand over their chips (realizing losses through selling) while in floating losses.

During the 2018 bear market, the STH-NUPL plummeted to around -0.6, with a large number of short-term players cutting losses, resulting in significant losses, ultimately clearing a lot of speculative bubbles, and the market began a new bull run after hitting the bottom. In the 2022 bear market (after the FTX collapse), the STH realized loss peak reached a record high, and after the weak hands were cleared out, the price bottomed around $16,000, subsequently starting a bull market.