Kalshi launches a $1 billion "Perfect Prediction" challenge

Kalshi announced the launch of a $1 billion "Perfect Prediction" challenge, where a successful prediction of all 63 games in the 2026 NCAA basketball tournament can win a $1 billion prize. Given that no one has ever completed this prediction (with a probability of 1 in 9.2 trillion), the highest scoring prediction will receive a guaranteed prize of $1 million, and an additional $1 million will be donated to charities and scholarship programs.

It is reported that in 2014, Buffett initiated a similar challenge, offering a $1 billion prize for correctly guessing the outcomes of all the games, but due to the difficulty, no one has ever won.