qcp

Рынок еженедельного отчета, опубликованного QCP Capital, показывает, что после выступления председателя Федеральной резервной системы Уорша в Джексон-Холле, вероятность повышения процентной ставки в сентябре на некоторое время возросла с 35% до 70%. BTC упал примерно на 2.5% за день, а после девяти дней чистого притока ETF зафиксировал чистый отток в 202 миллиона долларов. Однако затем доллар не смог удержать ястребиное ценообразование, DXY вернулся ниже 99.5, золото, серебро и BTC восстановили свои позиции.С точки зрения Министерства финансов, 9 сентября начнется первая операция по поддержке ликвидности на длинном конце, лимит на покупку будет увеличен до как минимум 4 миллиардов долларов (ранее 2 миллиарда долларов). 30-летние облигации, размещенные 8 августа, показали доходность 5.216%, что является самым высоким показателем с 2001 года, и рынок будет внимательно следить за тем, сможет ли эта операция эффективно улучшить ликвидность на длинном конце.Что касается инфляции, то в июле PCE составил 3.7% (основной 3.3%), CPI составил 3.4% (основной 2.5%). Цены на нефть марки Brent выросли примерно на 10% за неделю из-за атак в Ормузском проливе и форс-мажорных обстоятельств с LNG из Катара, инфляционное давление продолжается. Уоллер заявил, что если данные за следующие две недели продолжат текущую тенденцию, это будет поддерживать приостановку повышения процентных ставок. Вдобавок к этому, данные по занятости ADP составили всего 38 тысяч (самый слабый показатель с января), вероятность повышения процентной ставки в сентябре уже снизилась до 45-50%.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, согласно данным QCP, индекс потребительской уверенности Мичиганского университета в США в августе снизился до 51, розничные продажи в июле снизились на 0,6% по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем, в сочетании с ранее ослабевшими данными по занятости, ожидания рынка по поводу краткосрочного ужесточения политики Федеральной резервной системы снизились.Фьючерсы на федеральные фонды показывают вероятность повышения ставки на 25 базисных пунктов в сентябре около 30%.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, по данным QCP Capital, прошло 12 дней с момента подписания меморандума между США и Иран, и в выходные стороны вновь столкнулись в военных действиях, взаимно обвиняя друг друга в нарушении 60-дневного соглашения о прекращении огня, что создает давление на перспективы второго раунда переговоров. Цены на нефть по-прежнему держатся около 70 долларов, но если восстановление поставок будет медленнее, чем ожидалось, существует риск роста цен на нефть.Что касается крипторынка, подразумеваемая волатильность BTC и ETH продолжает расти, спрос на пут-опционы BTC с истечением в июле по цене 55,000-58,000 долларов увеличивается, в то время как спотовые ETF продолжают испытывать чистый отток, беспокойства по поводу стратегии и давление со стороны американских акций негативно сказываются на рыночных настроениях. Тем не менее, на рынке также наблюдается крупная покупка колл-опционов BTC по цене 64,000 долларов с истечением 17 числа. На этой неделе рынок будет следить за речью председателя ФРС Кевина Уорша на форуме ЕЦБ, а также за индексом PMI в производственном секторе ISM и данными по занятости в США. В условиях низкой ликвидности перед праздниками ожидается, что волатильность на рынке останется высокой.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, QCP Capital опубликовала последний отчет, в котором говорится, что доходность японских государственных облигаций снизилась, что облегчило опасения рынка по поводу закрытия арбитражных сделок с иеной и обратного потока капитала, что привело к росту Bitcoin до уровня около 64 000 долларов.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, последний рыночный отчет QCP указывает, что биткойн преодолел 65 000 долларов после того, как Strategy объявила о увеличении наличных резервов и покупке 520 биткойнов, что улучшило рыночные настроения в краткосрочной перспективе.В то же время на американском фондовом рынке наблюдается явная ротация: Nasdaq ослабевает, а акции малой капитализации укрепляются, что отражает, что склонность к риску не ослабла в целом.

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

According to QCP analysis, this week is packed with macro events, and the market focus is on three main lines: first, Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing this week, with topics covering tariffs, rare earth supply chains, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is concerned about whether substantial progress can be made in trade; second, the April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released successively. If inflation stabilizes, real yields are expected to decline, historically providing support for the crypto market; conversely, it will strengthen tightening expectations; third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the CLARITY Act, and legislative progress may further drive institutional funds into the market.Currently, despite BTC facing ETF fund outflows last week, it has still maintained the $80,000 level. Crypto volatility remains at a low for the year, with the VIX around 18. In the short term, BTC is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with $84,000 as a key resistance level.

QCP released a market observation stating that as geopolitical benefits fade, macro uncertainty is once again dominating market sentiment, leading both traditional markets and the crypto market to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. The report points out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and Powell's statements may become key variables in the short term; if hawkish signals are released, it could put pressure on liquidity-driven assets.QCP also noted that Bitcoin has maintained a range-bound fluctuation after rising in April, with current positions being light and volatility compressed, reflecting that the market as a whole is in a stage of waiting for directional choice.

QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

QCP stated that BTC rebounded from an overnight low near $75,000 to around $78,000, but this rise seems more like a correction after a calming of risk sentiment rather than a new phase for the market.The report pointed out that Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran has reduced expectations for short-term escalation of conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Iran's position is still unclear. Meanwhile, oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, creating a coexistence of inflationary pressure and slowing growth. QCP also noted that BTC's open interest has significantly rebounded, and the funding rate remains negative, indicating that shorts are still increasing their positions during the rise; the options market overall is still pricing for volatility rather than a continuation of trends.

QCP's latest market view states that as controversies surrounding the Iran-related ceasefire agreement resurface, the market's pricing for a de-escalation of the situation has quickly reversed. U.S. crude oil rebounded 8% after a drop last Friday, while crypto assets weakened in tandem, with BTC falling to $74,000 and ETH dipping to around $2,300.QCP pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to engage in a second round of negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, but it remains uncertain whether Iran will participate. Despite the pullback in spot prices, implied volatility is still close to this year's lows, indicating that the market is more inclined to price the duration of the conflict rather than its intensity. The market is also paying attention to Kevin Warsh, who will testify tomorrow on interest rates and the economic outlook before the Senate Banking Committee.

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to QCP Market analysis, after Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz passed, the planned actions were postponed, giving the market a temporary respite in risk appetite.BTC briefly fell below $70,000 over the weekend, but performed better than previous safe-haven sell-offs. QCP believes that, against the backdrop of U.S. debt exceeding $39 trillion, rising stagflation pressures, and increasing discussions on de-dollarization, BTC may be gradually breaking away from the "high beta risk asset" pricing framework.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

The government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 20.5 BTC (approximately 1.52 million USD) to QCP Capital; another 1.02 BTC (approximately 75,900 USD) was transferred to a new wallet address.

According to Arkham data, at 19:39, 100.14 WBTC (worth approximately 7.35 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 0x6086...) to QCP Capital.