Polymarket shows a 60% probability of the U.S. entering a recession in 2025

ChainCatcher news reports that the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of this prediction market has reached $2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026.

Data shows that the probability in this prediction market has been steadily increasing since early March, climbing from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces a recession in 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the prediction will be deemed "yes."