Bitwise CEO: The four-year cycle will be broken due to "reflexivity," and 2026 remains undefined

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated that the following are his observations of what happens in a four-year cycle:

• General perception: People believe in the four-year cycle, so 2026 will be a year of decline for Bitcoin;
• First-order effect: As a result, people will start selling in 2025 to avoid the down year;
• Second-order effect: Sellers in 2025 cause 2025 to become a down year, thus breaking the four-year cycle;
• Third-order effect: 2026 remains undefined, but the four-year cycle has been broken.

Recently, Hunter Horsley mentioned: "The four-year cycle is a thing of the past. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. I believe we have likely experienced nearly six months of a bear market and are about to emerge from it. The current development environment for cryptocurrencies has never been more favorable."