qcp

Báo cáo thị trường hàng tuần do QCP Capital phát hành cho thấy, sau phát biểu của Chủ tịch Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Warsh tại Jackson Hole, xác suất tăng lãi suất vào tháng 9 đã tăng từ 35% lên 70%, BTC giảm khoảng 2.5% trong một ngày, ETF ghi nhận dòng vốn ròng ra 202 triệu USD sau 9 ngày liên tiếp có dòng vốn ròng vào. Tuy nhiên, sau đó đồng đô la không thể duy trì mức giá diều hâu, DXY giảm xuống dưới 99.5, vàng, bạc và BTC đều phục hồi.Về phía Bộ Tài chính, vào ngày 9 tháng 9 sẽ khởi động hoạt động hỗ trợ thanh khoản dài hạn đầu tiên, nâng giới hạn mua lên ít nhất 4 tỷ USD (trước đó là 2 tỷ USD). Lợi suất đấu giá trái phiếu chính phủ kỳ hạn 30 năm vào tháng 8 ghi nhận 5.216%, là mức cao nhất kể từ năm 2001, thị trường sẽ theo dõi chặt chẽ xem hoạt động này có thể cải thiện hiệu quả thanh khoản dài hạn hay không.Về mặt lạm phát, chỉ số PCE tháng 7 báo cáo 3.7% (cốt lõi 3.3%), CPI báo cáo 3.4% (cốt lõi 2.5%), giá dầu Brent tăng khoảng 10% trong tuần do các cuộc tấn công ở Eo biển Hormuz và sự kiện bất khả kháng LNG của Qatar, áp lực lạm phát vẫn tiếp tục. Waller cho biết nếu dữ liệu trong hai tuần tới tiếp tục xu hướng hiện tại, sẽ ủng hộ việc tạm dừng tăng lãi suất, cộng thêm dữ liệu việc làm ADP chỉ đạt 38,000 (là mức yếu nhất kể từ tháng 1), xác suất tăng lãi suất vào tháng 9 đã giảm xuống còn 45--50%.

Tin tức từ ChainCatcher, theo thông tin từ QCP, chỉ số niềm tin tiêu dùng của Đại học Michigan ở Mỹ trong tháng 8 đã giảm xuống 51, doanh số bán lẻ tháng 7 giảm 0,6% so với tháng trước, cộng với dữ liệu việc làm yếu trước đó, kỳ vọng của thị trường về việc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang thắt chặt chính sách trong ngắn hạn đã giảm.Hợp đồng tương lai quỹ liên bang cho thấy xác suất tăng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản vào tháng 9 khoảng 30%.

ChainCatcher tin tức, theo báo cáo của QCP Capital, đã 12 ngày kể từ khi Mỹ và Iran ký biên bản ghi nhớ, hai bên lại xảy ra xung đột quân sự vào cuối tuần và đều cáo buộc vi phạm thỏa thuận ngừng bắn 60 ngày, triển vọng cho vòng đàm phán thứ hai đang chịu áp lực. Giá dầu vẫn duy trì quanh mức 70 USD, nhưng nếu nguồn cung phục hồi chậm hơn dự kiến, giá dầu vẫn có rủi ro tăng.Về thị trường tiền điện tử, độ biến động ngụ ý của BTC và ETH tiếp tục tăng cao, nhu cầu đối với quyền chọn bán BTC 55,000-58,000 USD đáo hạn vào tháng 7 tăng lên, quỹ ETF giao ngay tiếp tục rút ròng, lo ngại liên quan đến chiến lược và áp lực từ thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ làm giảm tâm lý thị trường. Tuy nhiên, thị trường cũng xuất hiện giao dịch mua lớn đối với quyền chọn mua BTC 64,000 USD đáo hạn vào ngày 17. Trong tuần này, thị trường sẽ chú ý đến bài phát biểu của Chủ tịch Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Kevin Warsh tại diễn đàn ECB, cũng như PMI sản xuất ISM và dữ liệu việc làm phi nông nghiệp của Mỹ, trong bối cảnh thanh khoản thấp trước kỳ nghỉ, dự kiến thị trường vẫn sẽ duy trì biến động cao.

Tin tức từ ChainCatcher, QCP Capital đã phát hành báo cáo mới nhất cho biết, lợi suất trái phiếu Nhật Bản đã giảm, làm giảm bớt lo ngại của thị trường về việc đóng vị thế giao dịch chênh lệch tỷ giá yên và dòng vốn quay trở lại, dẫn đến Bitcoin phục hồi lên khoảng 64.000 USD.

Tin tức từ ChainCatcher, báo cáo thị trường mới nhất của QCP chỉ ra rằng, sau khi Strategy công bố tăng cường dự trữ tiền mặt và mua thêm 520 đồng bitcoin, giá bitcoin đã vượt qua 65.000 USD, tâm lý thị trường ngắn hạn đã cải thiện.Trong khi đó, thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ xuất hiện sự luân chuyển rõ rệt, Nasdaq yếu đi trong khi cổ phiếu nhỏ mạnh lên, phản ánh rằng khẩu vị rủi ro chưa hoàn toàn suy yếu.

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

According to QCP analysis, this week is packed with macro events, and the market focus is on three main lines: first, Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing this week, with topics covering tariffs, rare earth supply chains, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is concerned about whether substantial progress can be made in trade; second, the April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released successively. If inflation stabilizes, real yields are expected to decline, historically providing support for the crypto market; conversely, it will strengthen tightening expectations; third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the CLARITY Act, and legislative progress may further drive institutional funds into the market.Currently, despite BTC facing ETF fund outflows last week, it has still maintained the $80,000 level. Crypto volatility remains at a low for the year, with the VIX around 18. In the short term, BTC is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with $84,000 as a key resistance level.

QCP released a market observation stating that as geopolitical benefits fade, macro uncertainty is once again dominating market sentiment, leading both traditional markets and the crypto market to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. The report points out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and Powell's statements may become key variables in the short term; if hawkish signals are released, it could put pressure on liquidity-driven assets.QCP also noted that Bitcoin has maintained a range-bound fluctuation after rising in April, with current positions being light and volatility compressed, reflecting that the market as a whole is in a stage of waiting for directional choice.

QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

QCP stated that BTC rebounded from an overnight low near $75,000 to around $78,000, but this rise seems more like a correction after a calming of risk sentiment rather than a new phase for the market.The report pointed out that Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran has reduced expectations for short-term escalation of conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Iran's position is still unclear. Meanwhile, oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, creating a coexistence of inflationary pressure and slowing growth. QCP also noted that BTC's open interest has significantly rebounded, and the funding rate remains negative, indicating that shorts are still increasing their positions during the rise; the options market overall is still pricing for volatility rather than a continuation of trends.

QCP's latest market view states that as controversies surrounding the Iran-related ceasefire agreement resurface, the market's pricing for a de-escalation of the situation has quickly reversed. U.S. crude oil rebounded 8% after a drop last Friday, while crypto assets weakened in tandem, with BTC falling to $74,000 and ETH dipping to around $2,300.QCP pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to engage in a second round of negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, but it remains uncertain whether Iran will participate. Despite the pullback in spot prices, implied volatility is still close to this year's lows, indicating that the market is more inclined to price the duration of the conflict rather than its intensity. The market is also paying attention to Kevin Warsh, who will testify tomorrow on interest rates and the economic outlook before the Senate Banking Committee.

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to QCP Market analysis, after Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz passed, the planned actions were postponed, giving the market a temporary respite in risk appetite.BTC briefly fell below $70,000 over the weekend, but performed better than previous safe-haven sell-offs. QCP believes that, against the backdrop of U.S. debt exceeding $39 trillion, rising stagflation pressures, and increasing discussions on de-dollarization, BTC may be gradually breaking away from the "high beta risk asset" pricing framework.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

The government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 20.5 BTC (approximately 1.52 million USD) to QCP Capital; another 1.02 BTC (approximately 75,900 USD) was transferred to a new wallet address.

According to Arkham data, at 19:39, 100.14 WBTC (worth approximately 7.35 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 0x6086...) to QCP Capital.