accumulation

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the accumulation of Bitcoin whales (wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins, excluding exchanges and mining pools) and dolphins (wallets holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins, primarily dominated by ETFs and corporate treasury companies) has stagnated, with demand continuing to weaken. The year-on-year contraction rate of whale balances is the fastest this year, while the annual growth rate of dolphin balances, although still positive, has significantly slowed, and the monthly growth rates for both are approaching zero, indicating that the structural demand engine is in a state of ongoing slowdown.Although the supply of long-term holders has reached a record 15,800,000 Bitcoins, this is not a bullish signal, as short-term demand is too weak to absorb the tokens of long-term holders. The supply of short-term holders has decreased from 6,400,000 Bitcoins in December 2025 to about 4,200,000 Bitcoins, of which approximately 900,000 Bitcoins came from Coinbase exchange reserves that have been passively converted to long-term holdings due to holding periods exceeding 155 days. Moreno reiterated that the current market conditions are similar to the bear market pattern of March 2022.

According to monitoring by BitcoinTreasuries.NET, Strive's preferred stock SATA reached a record high daily Bitcoin accumulation yesterday, totaling 402 bitcoins, which accounts for 51% of its total Bitcoin accumulation over the previous week, marking the largest single-day accumulation since its IPO.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the address that built a position of 3845 ETH at $2074 yesterday has added another 967.01 ETH. Since yesterday, a new round of accumulation has gathered 4812.03 ETH, with a total value of $10 million and an average acquisition price of $2078.91, currently showing an unrealized profit of $114,000.

Delphi Digital published a report stating that the variable rate Series A perpetual preferred stock STRC of Strategy has an authorized issuance limit of approximately $28.3 billion. If this value is reached without expanding the limit, the accumulation rate of Bitcoin by Strategy may slow down.On Monday, Strategy purchased 535 Bitcoins for $43 million, with most of the funds raised through the sale of Class A common stock MSTR. Currently, Strategy's market net asset value is 1.25 times. Researchers pointed out that when mNAV is low, Strategy uses STRC as the main accumulation tool, and if mNAV expands, it may acquire Bitcoin through the sale of MSTR. Strategy has a cash reserve of $2.25 billion, and the next significant cash obligation will mature in September 2027.

Delphi Digital stated on platform X that Strategy has raised funds over the years by issuing stock at a premium and cheap convertible bonds.Today, this window has essentially closed. Common stock issuance is constrained by the market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV), the issuance of new convertible debt has been suspended, and STRC has become the primary financing channel. The 11.5% yield is the cost at a lower tier of the capital structure.The repayment order of STRC is behind convertible bonds and preferred stock, so holders are compensated for taking on the impairment risks that the debt layer avoids. Strategy is paying this spread to continue accumulating Bitcoin in the current environment while buying time for the repayment of large debts maturing in 2028.

Strategy's STRC Bitcoin accumulation has begun, and sufficient funds have been raised to purchase 17 BTC.

According to The Block, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated in an interview that even if the company occasionally sells a small amount of Bitcoin, it will quickly replenish it at a ratio of buying back 10 to 20 coins for every 1 sold, emphasizing that it should become a net accumulator of Bitcoin, holding more Bitcoin at the end of each year than at the beginning.Last week, Strategy mentioned in its earnings call that it would consider using its Bitcoin holdings to fund dividends for the STRC perpetual preferred stock plan, no longer viewing it as completely untouchable reserves.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel stated that Bitcoin's net flow has shifted from positive to negative since early March, peaking at a strong outflow of -300,000 BTC on March 25, and as of today, it remains in a net outflow state of -98,000 BTC.During the same period, the BTC reserves on trading platforms decreased from 2.786 million to 2.681 million, declining for seven consecutive weeks, with a total reduction of over 105,000 BTC. There was no panic inflow during the price correction in April, indicating that tokens continue to be held by long-term holders. The current pattern is interpreted as a synchronized accumulation signal, and there is a need to be cautious of the potential risk of net flow returning to positive territory.

According to Cryptoquant, the Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI), composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing a historically key pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) stated that the BCMI index has fallen to the range of 0.2 to 0.3. While it does not guarantee an immediate "V-shaped" reversal, this area historically corresponds to deeply undervalued levels for BTC.Through data backtracking, BCMI confirms that the current pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023; however, the 90-day moving average (white line) is still trending downward. From a conservative perspective, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten, which will signal the exhaustion of selling pressure. Additionally, analyst Woominkyu believes the market is entering a "value accumulation zone," where the downside potential is shrinking compared to the long-term upside potential. However, it is still necessary to wait for price stabilization to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin has experienced a net outflow from CEX almost every day for the past two months, indicating a trend of accumulation among investors.This type of structural outflow is often seen as a positive signal of reduced selling pressure, especially during the current price consolidation phase, which may indicate that the selling power is exhausted, while also suggesting that Bitcoin is being transferred from CEX to long-term holding wallets.

According to CryptoQuant data, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has dropped to an 8-year low, indicating a decrease in speculative activity and a potential long-term accumulation phase.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the Global Easing Breadth Index, which covers 41 central banks, has recently turned significantly negative, indicating that institutional funds represented by ETFs are more forward-looking or may have already positioned themselves for a potential future monetary policy easing cycle.This week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded the largest single-day net inflow since late February, and the market generally believes that institutional investors view the current price range as an opportunity for allocation and accumulation. However, the overall market remains in a range-bound and structurally weak state. Analysts believe that current organic demand is weak, corporate Bitcoin allocation is slowing, and the options market has seen a significant increase in volatility after prices fell below $68,000, with traders more inclined to increase downside protection.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has dropped 52% since its peak in October 2025, with a 3-day SMA crossover signal appearing on February 27 (the death cross of both the 50-period and 200-period SMA), which has now lasted for 30 days. Historical patterns suggest that the final accumulation window of this cycle may occur within the next 3-6 days.Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the crossover of the 50 and 200 SMA marks an absolute bottom and a golden buying opportunity. Past cycles indicate that a final drop of 40-52% occurs 23-33 days after the crossover, completing the bear market washout. The potential washout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market will begin.

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor did not release the usual orange dot Bitcoin tracking post this Sunday, marking the first time in 13 weeks, leading the market to speculate that the company may have paused its weekly Bitcoin purchase plan. Saylor instead promoted the company's perpetual preferred stock STRC, emphasizing its 30-day volatility is lower than all components of the S&P 500, and offering an annual yield of 11.5%.Since December last year, Strategy has accumulated approximately 90,831 Bitcoins, currently holding a total of 762,099 Bitcoins at an average price of about $75,694. The company has also recently launched a $42 billion stock issuance plan, gradually shifting its focus towards preferred stock financing. Monday's 8-K filing will reveal whether the company has truly paused its Bitcoin purchases.

According to Coinglass data, recently, Strategy and on-chain whales have significantly accelerated their accumulation of Bitcoin.The balance of Bitcoin in CEX wallets has reached a nearly two-year low, totaling 2,463,300 coins. In the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of 8,323.72 Bitcoins from CEX. Over the past 30 days, the net outflow has reached 32,190.17 coins.

According to SoSoValue data, as of 8 AM Eastern Time on March 23, 2026, the total net purchase of Bitcoin by global listed companies (excluding mining companies) for the week was $95.78 million, a decrease of 93.90% compared to last week.Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced on March 23 that it invested $76.6 million (a decrease of 95.12% compared to last week's purchase amount) to increase its holdings by 1,031 Bitcoins at a price of $74,326, bringing its total holdings to 762,099 Bitcoins.The Japanese listed company Metaplanet did not purchase any Bitcoin last week, marking ten consecutive weeks without purchases.In addition, four other companies purchased Bitcoin last week. The American asset management company Strive announced on March 19 that it purchased 317 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 13,628 Bitcoins, without disclosing the specific purchase amount; the Japanese food brand DayDayCook announced on March 19 that it spent $16 million to purchase 200 Bitcoins at a price of $79,969, bringing its total holdings to 2,383 Bitcoins; the British Bitcoin company BHODL announced on March 20 that it invested $71,289 to purchase 1 Bitcoin; the French Bitcoin asset company Capital B announced that it invested $3.11 million to purchase 44 Bitcoins at a price of $70,712.4, bringing its total holdings to 2,888 Bitcoins.Capital B also announced the completion of a warrant issuance to raise approximately €3 million for the purpose of purchasing Bitcoin.As of the time of publication, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the listed companies worldwide (excluding mining companies) is 1,023,332 Bitcoins, an increase of 0.03% compared to last week, with a current market value of approximately $7.248 billion, accounting for 5.1% of the circulating market value of Bitcoin.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has stabilized above the $70,000 mark ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with market momentum showing a clear rebound.Although the price has not yet broken through the current range high, the recent net inflow of funds into spot ETFs over four consecutive trading days and ongoing spot buying indicate that institutional investors are continuously accumulating within the range. The market is transitioning from a previously liquidation-driven volatility phase to a more robust "absorption" structure.On-chain and derivatives data also show an improvement in market structure, with funding rates remaining neutral and open interest gradually rising. Data indicates that around $72,500 had previously accumulated the highest short liquidation positions of approximately $2.4 billion. Once the price breaks through key resistance, it may trigger further upward momentum. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices up, the market generally believes that inflationary pressures may rise further in the coming months, which will continue to affect the liquidity environment of global financial markets, including crypto assets.

According to Cointlegraph, Santiment's on-chain data shows that wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC control 68.17% of the total Bitcoin supply (up from 68.07% seven days ago), indicating a recent accumulation rebound, which is seen as a "positive reversal" and a bullish signal.A week ago, whales sold about 66% of their holdings when the price broke above $74,000. Small wallets (0.01 BTC) continue to accumulate, especially buying when the price falls below $70,000. Santiment warns that the combination of "retail buying + whale selling" has historically often indicated that the correction is not yet over.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The last time the seller risk ratio showed active selling pressure signals was in December 2024 (around $107,000), after which the signal has remained off. Currently, the model shows accumulation signals, while the selling pressure on the network has decreased to about 6 times lower than the average level of this cycle. The indicator continues to decline and has replicated the levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin prices were around $16,000-$20,000.The current cycle has gone through a distribution phase and has re-entered the accumulation phase, which is still ongoing. The 180-day rolling average has dropped to 1,913, a level that historically corresponds to bear market phases, but at that time, the corresponding price was only $16,000-$20,000, while the current price is in the $67,000-$72,000 range. The current market state is neutral with a slight accumulation bias. The main risk is: if there is a lack of price catalysts, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation, in which case the rolling average SRR indicator will continue to decline."