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BTC $81,406.50 +1.31%
ETH $2,666.98 +3.19%
BNB $777.83 +3.50%
XRP $1.42 +2.93%
SOL $111.72 +2.86%
TRX $0.3429 +0.90%
DOGE $0.0887 +3.25%
ADA $0.2323 +4.74%
BCH $255.00 +3.76%
LINK $12.66 +4.73%
HYPE $93.10 +2.41%
AAVE $138.76 +0.49%
SUI $0.9393 +13.78%
XLM $0.1993 +4.22%
ZEC $1,523.49 +4.21%
AAPL $334.59 +0.15%
AMZN $255.48 +0.76%
GOOGL $351.89 +0.23%
MSFT $495.01 +0.16%
META $675.60 +0.94%
NVDA $223.37 +1.15%
TSLA $366.40 +0.80%
SNDK $1,804.32 +2.22%
INTC $112.83 +3.13%
SPCX $154.07 +1.13%
MU $1,027.29 +2.47%
AMD $570.58 +3.23%

数据:BTC 触及关键支撑位,波动率降低但防御性仓位仍占主导

2026-06-19 17:41:01

ChainCatcher 消息,glassnode 发文表示,比特币(BTC)在重新测试 2 月低点后回落至重要支撑区域。期权市场数据显示,尽管价格接近关键水平,但隐含波动率已从近期高点明显回落,1 周隐含波动率从约 60% 降至 35%,整体波动率曲线同步下移,市场对未来不确定性的定价明显降温。

同时,25Δ偏度也从抛售期间的极端水平回落,短期限保护需求有所正常化,显示恐慌性对冲情绪正在减弱。不过,结构性防御仓位仍占主导。数据显示,短期限期权仍偏向下行保护,近一周看空期权成交占比约 28%,显著高于看多期权买入比例(24.1%)。

同时,1 个月隐含波动率已低于实际波动率,市场出现“隐含波动率低估现实波动”的情况。在 62,000 美元附近存在显著短 Gamma 集中区(约 18 亿美元规模),若价格进一步下探可能加速波动放大,而在 60,000 美元附近则存在一定长 Gamma 缓冲区。整体来看,尽管波动率降温,但市场仍处于偏防御的仓位结构之中。

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