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SOL $92.35 -5.41%
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DOGE $0.0738 -4.90%
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HYPE $80.40 -6.96%
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SUI $0.8805 -5.64%
XLM $0.1598 -5.64%
ZEC $1,260.08 -6.36%
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GOOGL $285.73 -2.81%
MSFT $544.94 -1.69%
META $601.27 -4.88%
NVDA $189.36 -8.02%
TSLA $350.24 -9.34%
SNDK $893.40 -18.71%
INTC $53.99 -8.95%
SPCX $125.39 -9.26%
MU $713.57 -15.01%
AMD $429.62 -14.26%

数据:BTC 触及关键支撑位,波动率降低但防御性仓位仍占主导

2026-06-19 17:41:01

ChainCatcher 消息,glassnode 发文表示,比特币(BTC)在重新测试 2 月低点后回落至重要支撑区域。期权市场数据显示,尽管价格接近关键水平,但隐含波动率已从近期高点明显回落,1 周隐含波动率从约 60% 降至 35%,整体波动率曲线同步下移,市场对未来不确定性的定价明显降温。

同时,25Δ偏度也从抛售期间的极端水平回落,短期限保护需求有所正常化,显示恐慌性对冲情绪正在减弱。不过,结构性防御仓位仍占主导。数据显示,短期限期权仍偏向下行保护,近一周看空期权成交占比约 28%,显著高于看多期权买入比例(24.1%)。

同时,1 个月隐含波动率已低于实际波动率,市场出现“隐含波动率低估现实波动”的情况。在 62,000 美元附近存在显著短 Gamma 集中区(约 18 亿美元规模),若价格进一步下探可能加速波动放大,而在 60,000 美元附近则存在一定长 Gamma 缓冲区。整体来看,尽管波动率降温,但市场仍处于偏防御的仓位结构之中。

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