StepN & Axie Old and New Kings Data Analysis: Will StepN Challenge the GameFi Throne?

Author: H.Forest

Undoubtedly, Stepn has become the hottest application in the cryptocurrency market in the first quarter of 2022, with its Twitter followers recently surpassing 200,000. As the leader in Move to Earn, Stepn's game mechanics share many similarities with Axie, such as a dual-token system, breeding system, and energy system. However, it is unfortunate that Axie, as the leader of Gamefi in 2021, has now fallen into the awkward situation of insufficient new users and severe inflation.

Both Stepn and Axie were incubated by Binance Launchpad, receiving the same level of resource support. Given Stepn's current popularity, it is highly likely to ascend to the Gamefi throne in 2022. Stepn not only learns from Axie's past experiences to optimize its token economic model, such as increasing token consumption scenarios and pay-to-win scenarios, implementing strict anti-cheating mechanisms, and creating an interesting invitation code generation mechanism (Note: Users can generate one invitation code for every 50 minutes of exercise); it also addresses the long-standing "last mile" problem in society through a Web 3.0 approach. For example, my Crypto degen colleagues have stopped driving luxury cars and now take the subway to work daily just to complete the last mile from the subway station to the office using Stepn. The design mechanism of Stepn is derived from Axie. Can we deduce the future trajectory of Stepn by reviewing Axie's data? And determine which stage Stepn is currently in its lifecycle?

1. Selection of Observation Dimensions

Recently, Stepn's Twitter followers surpassed 200,000, so let's start from this point; using the consistent attention received by Axie and Stepn on Twitter as a reference point, let's look at Axie's data during the same period:

Stepn: On April 8, 2022, Twitter followers surpassed 200,000 (as of the publication date, April 22, 2022, the follower count is approximately 300,000).

Axie: On July 15, 2021, Twitter followers surpassed 200,000 (as of the publication date, April 22, 2022, the follower count is approximately 950,000).

2. Comparison of Various Data Dimensions

We take the date when Twitter followers reached 200,000 as a time node: we selected the data from Stepn on April 8, 2022, and Axie on July 15, 2021, and compared them from the perspectives of circulating market value, IEO return rate, daily active users, protocol revenue, on-chain data, user distribution, and user income.

2.1 Comparison of Circulating Market Value

Axie: On July 15, 2021, Axie's circulating market value reached $1.4 billion (with a total circulation of $6.2 billion at that time). The token price was $23, and Axie's hard cap on Binance Launchpad was approximately $3 million, with an IEO price of $0.1, resulting in an IEO return rate of 23,000%.

Stepn: On April 8, 2022, Stepn's circulating market value was $1.3 billion (with a total circulation of $13.2 billion at that time), the token price was $2.2, and Stepn's hard cap on Binance Launchpad was $4.2 million, with a token price of $0.01, resulting in an IEO return rate of 22,000%.

2.2 Comparison of Daily Active Users

Axie Daily Active User Data:

Axie's daily active users rapidly grew from May, increasing from 100,000 in May to 1.95 million in October, nearly a 20-fold increase, taking about 5-6 months to reach its peak.

Stepn Daily Active User Data:

According to recent data released by the founder, Stepn currently has daily active users ranging from 200,000 to 300,000, which is comparable to Axie's daily active users in June and July.

2.3 Comparison of Protocol Revenue

Axie: According to Tokenterminal data, on July 15, 2021, Axie's protocol revenue was $8.2 million. However, it should be noted that Axie's protocol revenue consists of two parts: a 4.25% NFT market transaction fee + breeding fees. Since Stepn does not charge breeding fees, we need to calculate Axie's protocol revenue based on the NFT market transaction volume.

From the NFT transaction history data shown below, Axie's NFT market transaction volume on July 15, 2021, was $30.6 million, with a fee of 4.25% * $30.6 million = $1.3 million.

Stepn: On April 8, 2022, Stepn's daily protocol revenue was approximately $1.03 million (but its protocol charges 6% of the market transaction volume).

Note: As of April 14, Stepn's protocol revenue reached $1.9 million.

Comparison of 20W Twitter follower data

2.4 Comparison of NFT Market Transaction Volume

Stepn: The official statement indicates that in the first quarter of 2022, Stepn earned 198,635.62 SOL (approximately $26,815,807.35) through in-app NFT market transaction royalties (4%) and fees (2%), with the total transaction volume calculated to be approximately 3,310,593.67 SOL (approximately $446 million).

Axie: According to Cryptoslam data

Stepn's transaction volume in the first quarter is about 70% of Axie's transaction volume in July. Axie's market transaction volume remained above $500 million from July to November, peaking at nearly $850 million in August.

2.5 Comparison of On-Chain Data

On April 8, the number of GST holders in Stepn was 130,000. Considering that Stepn has set up game accounts, all user upgrades and minting operations are conducted within these accounts, the actual number of GST holders is much higher than 130,000. However, due to the inability to obtain accurate data, we can only compare the growth rates of the two. As shown in the figure above, the growth rate of GST addresses has remained above 5% for several consecutive days.

On July 15, 2021, the number of SLP holding addresses was 285,000.

The growth rate of SLP addresses has remained above 4% for several consecutive days. Both have experienced rapid growth in the number of holding addresses.

Note: Currently, Stepn uses an invitation code mechanism, where users can generate one invitation code for every 50 minutes of exercise.

2.6 Comparison of User Distribution

Stepn's download rankings in various countries' App Stores (Fitness category):

According to third-party data, on March 26, 2022, Stepn ranked outside the top 100 in the App Stores of Canada, Germany, Australia, the UK, the Netherlands, and other countries.

As of April 17, 2022, Stepn's download rankings in various countries' App Stores had entered the Top 50, and even the Top 10, with the highest ranking in Japan at 5th; France ranked 9th. Of course, due to policy reasons, a significant portion of the downloads may actually come from Chinese users, but it still reflects the popularity of Stepn in developed countries to some extent.

In contrast, Axie's users are mainly concentrated in economically underdeveloped regions such as the Philippines and Venezuela; users join primarily to earn income to sustain their livelihoods, rather than being attracted by the game itself, making the severe inflation of the game token inevitable.

2.7 Comparison of User Income

Public data shows that the per capita GDP in the Philippines over the past three years is approximately $3,500.

Japan's per capita GDP over the past three years is approximately $40,000, nearly ten times that of the Philippines.

From the distribution of user groups and the comparison of per capita GDP income, Stepn's user base appears to have more economic strength to spend, with the fitness penetration rate in developed countries being around 15%-20%, representing a large group. If these users with real needs turn to use Stepn, then Stepn has the opportunity to become a traffic entry point connecting the traditional world and the crypto world.

3. Conclusion

By comparing the above data, we can see that Stepn and Axie have striking similarities in various dimensions of data. The only difference lies in the distribution of user groups; Stepn's user base is relatively higher quality compared to Axie's. This means that Stepn and Axie are fundamentally different, as Stepn's users have a genuine need for exercise. Users find that their needs are met while earning rewards, so as Stepn's product iterations become more refined, user stickiness will also see greater enhancement. The challenge Stepn faces in the future is: Can the cultivation cycle of user habits be faster than the decline cycle of returns? If the return rates revert to the mean, and a large number of users still maintain their love for Stepn, then this application has the potential to become a groundbreaking work in web3.