QCP: The Japanese bond market is fluctuating amid escalating tariff conflicts between the US and Europe, with the market shifting to a risk-averse mode, causing Bitcoin to come under pressure and decline
QCP pointed out in the latest daily market analysis that global market risk appetite has significantly cooled over the past week. The impact of the Japanese bond market, combined with geopolitical tensions, has driven funds towards defensive positions. U.S. stocks briefly fell more than 2%, and the global bond market faced pressure simultaneously.The report states that Japan has become the core of current market anxiety. After a long period of ultra-low interest rates, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to about 2.29%, reaching a new high since 1999, exposing severe fiscal vulnerabilities. Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with total debt around 1,342 trillion yen. It is expected that by 2026, debt interest payments will account for about a quarter of fiscal expenditures. The rising yields are triggering widespread doubts about the sustainability of Japan's public finances and are having spillover effects on the global bond market.Meanwhile, U.S.-European relations have once again become tense. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing U.S. control over Greenland, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1. The European Union has quickly stated that it will take countermeasures, and the bilateral trade relationship faces further escalation risks. In 2024, the scale of U.S.-European bilateral goods trade is estimated to be around $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of escalating conflicts cannot be ignored. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in July this year.Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has continued to face pressure after falling below $90,000. Although it briefly rebounded above $97,000, the momentum has not recovered. QCP noted that BTC currently resembles a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool, being highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical issues, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may continue to respond passively, with the focus of funds shifting towards capital preservation rather than risk betting.