Macroeconomic Research and Trends

The cryptocurrency industry may gradually shift from the hype of native altcoins to real asset tokenization, on-chain machine economy, and a more mature industrialization phase.

The prices in this window are determined by emotions, amplified by leverage, driven by war narratives—rather than by crude oil supply and demand.

The Trump administration's "equity-for-subsidy" strategy has significantly boosted individual stocks like Intel and MP Materials, but the surge has mostly been a brief spike followed by a rapid decline. As the midterm elections approach, if the Democrats regain Congress, they will initiate congressional hearings that could severely impact the stock prices and brands of related companies; meanwhile, shareholder lawsuits are questioning the legality of the Chip Act's authorization, and a victory in these lawsuits could shake the entire stock portfolio.

The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" summarizes that the Fed may not have finished its fight against inflation. The key point of Waller's speech is that financial conditions are not restrictive, and inflation improvement is still insufficient. He did not provide a specific policy path or clarify whether he supports a rate hike in September. The short end of the U.S. Treasury market suggests a rate hike, while the long end remains more calm. Wall Street has not reached a consensus on a mandatory rate hike in September. Barclays and Societe Generale expect rate hikes in September and December this year. Industry insiders believe that Waller suggests the market should be prepared for a rate hike, but investors want GPS, and he only provides a compass. He still deliberately refuses forward guidance, saying a lot but providing no substantial content.

Overall, Waller's speech at Jackson Hole this time released a relatively clear cautious hawkish signal.

Bank of America believes that under the backdrop of the Treasury increasing the repurchase of long-term bonds and the dollar being under pressure, if Waller can clearly signal anti-inflation measures and the possibility of restarting interest rate hikes when necessary, it will help stabilize the market and flatten the yield curve; conversely, if he avoids policy statements, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries may test the high of 5.5%, and the dollar will also face a new round of downward pressure.

If investors are truly concerned about the continuously expanding fiscal deficit in the United States over the next few years, then merely repurchasing tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars in government bonds is unlikely to change the long-term equilibrium.

Bessenet's expansion of long-term bond repurchases has failed to effectively suppress U.S. Treasury yields, instead giving rise to "currency devaluation trades" in gold and Bitcoin. Market focus has shifted to Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech at Jackson Hole—if he cannot provide clear signals regarding the inflation path, the sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries may intensify. A 5% yield on the 30-year bond is a key threshold, and Waller's statements will be the most important variable this week.

Waller will deliver his keynote speech for the first time at Jackson Hole on August 28, Eastern Time, but it has not yet been decided whether he will discuss the macroeconomic "big picture" or directly provide guidance for the policy path from September to December. This uncertainty means that the market's sensitivity to changes in wording may significantly increase. During the conference, about five Federal Reserve officials are expected to give media interviews, and attention should be focused on the continuous statements of these officials. Goldman Sachs believes that Jackson Hole has historically amplified foreign exchange volatility, but the dollar does not have a stable one-way direction.

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