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leverage

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Article
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JPMorgan warned that AI stocks are hard to replicate the rebound in July, and leverage risks are rising

J.P. Morgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that the AI stock sell-off in October may be difficult to replicate the rapid rebound seen in July. Compared to before, the current market's willingness to buy on dips has weakened, short positions are insufficient to provide potential short-covering buying, corporate buyback funds are also decreasing, and at the same time, leveraged exposure in ETFs is being rebuilt, which may further amplify market volatility. J.P. Morgan believes that, based on investor positioning and capital flows, AI infrastructure stocks do not yet appear to be in an oversold state.This round of sell-off has spread from South Korean memory chip stocks to the U.S. semiconductor sector. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have both seen their stock prices drop by nearly one-third over the past month, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 10% over the last five trading days. Additionally, the combined $40 billion stock buyback plan previously announced by the two companies was completed ahead of schedule in mid-October, which may have caused the market to lose some of the buying support brought by corporate buybacks.Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that if the U.S. halts data center construction, the economy could fall into recession. He stated that a significant portion of U.S. economic growth is related to capital expenditures in AI infrastructure. As market concerns deepen regarding the return on AI investments and corporate profitability, price adjustments in the AI supply chain could also impact data center construction, energy infrastructure, and related employment sectors.

IMF: The market size of tokenized RWA is approximately 65 billion USD, which may become a new channel for leverage accumulation and liquidity risk

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the October "Global Financial Stability Report," which for the first time discusses the tokenized market in a dedicated chapter. The report shows that as of the end of July, the public market size of tokenized Real World Assets (RWA), excluding repos and stablecoins, is approximately $65 billion, with credit accounting for about $30.4 billion, money market funds about $17.5 billion, and stocks about $2.3 billion. The average daily trading volume of tokenized repos over 30 days reached $303 billion.The report states that the issuance of tokenized stocks is highly concentrated, with Ondo Finance and Backed Finance (xStocks) together accounting for over 70%. More than 50% of trades occur outside regular trading hours for U.S. stocks, with about 80% of trade sizes being less than one share, volatility being about 1.5 times that of traditional markets, and liquidity being significantly lower.The IMF believes that while the scale of tokenized assets is small, it may bring efficiency improvements in multiple areas, but it could also create new channels for leverage accumulation and liquidity and maturity mismatches, exacerbating technological and infrastructure risks, with current systemic risks remaining limited. The IMF also pointed out that in the absence of interoperable central bank currencies, stablecoins and tokenized deposits may become the main settlement tools in the tokenized capital market, leading to issuer credit risk and concentration risk.
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