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SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, with historical warnings indicating volatility after the inclusion; TeraWulf's Q1 HPC leasing revenue first exceeded the annual high-margin mining revenue of $630 million

According to BBX data, yesterday marked a milestone for the global largest IPO completion index, with a historic turning point in the valuation logic of AI transformation in mining companies. The core dynamics are as follows:SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) reported on July 7 that the company was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first in history to have the largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The last two largest new constituents added—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a phase decline after inclusion, rather than starting a new round of increases"; analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 complete "forced buying" at the time of inclusion, and if there are no new fundamental catalysts afterward, stock prices often pull back after technical buying subsides. Specific risks currently facing SpaceX include: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (mainly due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate of $62 per share, indicating about a 70% implied downside from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, held in Coinbase Prime), the inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will trigger a larger scale of SPCX holdings by passive funds, further bridging the gap between traditional index investors and indirect exposure to Bitcoin assets.TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) according to the latest analysis, the company's high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026 reached $21 million, accounting for about 62% of the total revenue of $34 million, surpassing Bitcoin mining revenue for the first time—this marks TeraWulf's first historic revenue structure reversal after transitioning to an AI/HPC infrastructure company, with a 117% increase from the $9.7 million HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company has currently signed over 522 megawatts of AI/HPC leases with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annual high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million; the energy structure consists of nuclear power + hydropower, with an average electricity cost of about $0.035 per kilowatt-hour, one of the lowest among similar mining companies. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid access capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price ranges, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods raising from $23 to $37, Clear Street from $26 to $38, Jefferies initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of $37, and BTIG raising at the same time. The company's stock price has increased by approximately 88% year-to-date in 2026, leading the gains in the mining sector.

Data: Bitcoin miners' profit margins continue to be under pressure, with revenue falling below production costs

Bitcoin miner revenue has continued to decline over the past year, with the current 7-day moving average daily income at approximately $30 million, significantly lower than last summer's level of over $50 million. Among this, transaction fees have dropped to less than $250,000 per day, almost negligible compared to block subsidies.Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin is around $62,500, below JPMorgan's estimated production cost of about $78,000. This state of being below production costs has persisted for five months, the longest duration in this cycle. Historically, production costs are often seen as a soft bottom area for Bitcoin prices. Currently, it is estimated that about 20% of miners are in a loss position at the current price, and the pressure is beginning to reflect at the network level.Over the past six months, the sensitivity of mining difficulty to Bitcoin prices has risen to 0.62, indicating that high-cost miners are increasingly inclined to turn off their mining machines based on price fluctuations rather than continue mining at a loss. In the second week of June, Bitcoin mining difficulty decreased by 10%, marking the second occurrence of a similar magnitude adjustment this year. A comparable adjustment also occurred in the previous quarter, with both instances happening during periods when prices remained below production costs, indicating that pressure on the miner side is deepening.

Policy Simulation Report "Europe 2031" Warning: Europe Faces Marginalization Risks in the AI Era

The recently released policy simulation report "Europe 2031" points out that, constrained by a shortage of computing power and reliance on external models, Europe may face the risk of economic and political marginalization in the global AI competition if it does not make significant strategic adjustments. The report notes that Europe currently accounts for only 5% of global AI computing power, lacking leverage in technological competition, and its advocated "technological sovereignty" may be difficult to achieve due to insufficient funding and lagging policies, even facing the risk of losing autonomous control over core technology companies (such as ASML).To address the aforementioned challenges, the report proposes a series of countermeasures. It suggests that Europe should mobilize public and private capital on a large scale, focusing investments on foundational computing infrastructure such as energy, semiconductors, and data centers; and form a technology alliance with countries like the UK and Japan to integrate supply chain advantages for international negotiation leverage. Additionally, the report calls for Europe to advance labor market reforms to adapt to the proliferation of AI and tighten scrutiny of foreign investment in local manufacturing to consolidate its existing advantages in industrial AI and robotics.
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