Delphi Digital analyzes the marginal changes in the Bitcoin financing model strategy, with STRC becoming a key expansion engine but risks rising simultaneously

The cryptocurrency research institution Delphi Digital released the latest report "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," which systematically analyzes the Bitcoin (BTC) funding expansion mechanism of Strategy, pointing out that its financing structure is transitioning from "low-cost accumulation" to the "diminishing marginal efficiency" stage. The report shows that in the current asset accumulation system centered around Bitcoin, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy's continuous purchase of BTC. Initially, it relied on a significant premium in MSTR's stock price (mNAV far exceeding BTC's net value) to achieve a positive cycle of "issuance leads to accumulation," but as the valuation has fallen back to about 1.24 times the EV-based mNAV, the BTC per share enhancement effect from common stock issuance is nearing breakeven.

At the same time, while convertible bond tools have played an important role historically, they have accumulated about $8.2 billion in principal and will face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term sustainability of the financing structure under pressure. STRC provides a continuous financing source for Strategy by offering approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividends to income-oriented investors, to maintain the pace of BTC purchases. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations, meaning that each round of financing increases BTC assets while simultaneously accumulating future dividend burdens.

The report emphasizes key risk scenarios: if BTC prices remain stagnant and MSTR's premium fails to recover, then the "STRC financing purchase gain" may be gradually offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations." Although the company's approximately $2.25 billion cash reserves can cover about $1 billion in redemption pressure in 2027, larger-scale debt and dividend structures in 2028 still need to be addressed. Additionally, the current authorized issuance limit of about $28.3 billion for STRC becomes a critical constraint point. Once the limit is reached, the ability to purchase new BTC may slow down, but existing dividend obligations will continue to exist, thus altering the overall BTC per share dynamic growth path.