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etf

Analysis: Bitcoin faces key resistance levels, with continuous outflows from ETFs and increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve causing the market to remain cautious

Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macro uncertainties. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term.Kraken's chief economist Thomas Perfumo stated that the current market is more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the "division" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself, especially against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of Kevin Warsh potentially taking over, leading to a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is still "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000.Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakthrough. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has rarely shown severe divisions, which the market interprets as an increase in uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Institutions such as Bitget Wallet and 21Shares pointed out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer term" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, leading the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.In terms of capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million flowing out on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still have inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling.Meanwhile, while CME positions and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there has not yet been a strong signal of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs; if sentiment improves, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the current market remains characterized by low volatility and low confidence. Overall, Bitcoin is caught between an improving support structure and weak demand, with continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels.

21Shares executives: Bitcoin may hit $100,000 this year, institutions are accelerating their entry

According to CoinDesk, 21Shares Chief Investment Officer Adrian Fritz stated that the spot Bitcoin ETF continues to attract inflows, reinforcing Bitcoin's core position in institutional asset allocation, even as prices remain fluctuating below $80,000. Adrian Fritz pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated nearly $2 billion in funds, with sources including retail investors, institutions, and hedge fund arbitrage and options strategy trading.As traditional asset management institutions like Morgan Stanley accelerate their layouts, crypto assets are being more widely incorporated into multi-asset portfolio allocations. Bitcoin's current daily trading volume has exceeded $50 billion, and liquidity levels are approaching those of large tech stocks like Nvidia. The ETF mechanism simultaneously provides liquidity in both primary and secondary markets, gradually giving it "institutional-grade asset" attributes.Although the market is still suppressed by macro and interest rate environments, Adrian Fritz believes that ETF inflows have shifted from being driven by speculation to structural demand. He expects that with improvements in geopolitical conditions, continued inflows, and short covering, Bitcoin is likely to challenge the $100,000 mark within the year. Meanwhile, the differentiation among altcoins is intensifying, and the market is shifting towards a logic of asset selection that emphasizes fundamentals and cash flow.

Blockstream CEO: The inflow of institutional funds into Bitcoin is slower than expected, and building positions may take 12 to 18 months

Some observers view Morgan Stanley's entry into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month as a catalyst to end the current crypto bear market, citing the large distribution capability of the Wall Street giant's $8 trillion wealth advisory network. However, Blockstream CEO and early Bitcoin community contributor Adam Back stated that "it won't happen that quickly."Back was recently speculated by The New York Times to be the anonymous Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, which he denied. Back indicated that from a positive market signal perspective, the Bitcoin ETF could be the most significant development in recent times, even more important than a pro-crypto U.S. government, but this process is slower than most people realize.Back stated, "I think one thing people might be miscalculating is that institutional adoption is very slow. So the ETF has been bought, but when BlackRock suggested allocating 2% to 4% in its general stock portfolio, fund managers had not done that yet. They will, but slower than people expect." He mentioned that investors will not rush in overnight, and the accumulation process could take a year or even 18 months.Regarding prices, Back noted that the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle needs to be considered. He pointed out that even if some commentators believe the four-year cycle is breaking down, "people expect it to happen, so they sell to make it actually happen," and a decline could still occur. This logic will only change when people see the market strengthen, which is currently manifesting in the form of institutional capital inflows.Back stated that regarding recent comments about the accelerated development of quantum computing hardware potentially threatening Bitcoin's cryptography, institutions are more systematic in risk management and will focus on tail risks, while retail investors view it as a distant future risk.

Bitcoin ETF ends nine consecutive days of net inflow, market turns cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting

Bitcoin fell below $77,000, with the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recording a net outflow of $263.2 million, ending a nine-day streak of net inflows. This coincided with the eve of this week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, adding a touch of caution to the already resilient April rebound.Bitcoin declined today, but it has still risen about 15% over the past month, reaching a high of $79,000 in April. The interruption of ETF fund momentum is significant because it occurs just before a week of major macroeconomic events. The market is currently digesting the Federal Reserve's decisions, new inflation concerns, GDP data, a series of earnings reports from major tech companies, and another round of interest rate decisions from central banks in Europe and Asia.Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, stated that the crypto market entered this week with inspiring momentum, but there are too many cross factors to determine a clean risk appetite trend. In his view, investors are showing signs of "war fatigue" regarding the situation in the Middle East, while central banks are forced to find a balance between supply-driven inflation and weakening confidence along with mixed data.Glassnode expressed a similar view in its latest weekly pulse report. Analysts noted that Bitcoin still exhibits a "mix of bullish momentum, cautious sentiment, and consolidation," with strong buying pressure offset by weaker speculative participation and lower trading activity.QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin had a significant rebound in April, maintaining an overall constructive pattern. However, the firm believes that $82,000 remains a key level, with the nearby CME gap constituting the next real test.Andy Baehr, managing director at GSR Asset Management, mentioned that prices are "gradually rising," and $80,000 remains a key psychological level.
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