bitcoin

The crypto lending platform Nexo has disclosed that the number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC is continuously increasing, indicating that "smart money" is flowing back into the Bitcoin market. Data shows that addresses holding between 10 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated approximately 41,000 BTC over the past two weeks.Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has also surpassed the "True Market Mean" average level of $78,100 for the first time since January this year. Market analysis suggests that the continued accumulation by large on-chain addresses may reflect a rebound in the risk appetite of institutions and long-term holders.

According to Arkham monitoring, the on-chain wallet address of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) under Morgan Stanley increased its holdings by a total of 286.693 BTC through Coinbase yesterday, worth $22.48 million. As of now, the total Bitcoin holdings of MSBT have reached 2,620 BTC, valued at approximately $204 million.

Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that retail investors have significantly exited the current crypto market, and institutions are becoming the market bottom and supporting Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin is being viewed as a mature asset with sustained growth potential over the next 15 to 20 years, while altcoins need to have a clear narrative to attract retail attention again.He also mentioned that the core of the crypto industry still revolves around money and financial scenarios, with areas such as DeFi, stablecoins, exchanges, and RWA having strong user stickiness. With the involvement of AI technology, future agents may take on intermediary roles in trading, thereby enhancing overall adoption, and low-risk preference users may become the main source of incremental growth.

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: "The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices, while the apparent demand for spot continues to shrink. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to maintain an upward trend."Moreno stated that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative rather than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin.Moreno also said: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it usually corrects through price pullbacks." CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the bear market in 2022. While this does not mean that the same outcome will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does present significant downside risks.

Bitcoin News posted on the X platform that Eric Trump increased his personal wealth from approximately $190 million to $280 million through American Bitcoin.Meanwhile, the company's stock price, after significant dilution, has fallen about 92% from its peak, resulting in a loss of approximately $500 million for public investors.

According to Cointelegraph, MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated on the X platform that Bitcoin does not need a new narrative or catalyst to return to the psychological threshold of $100,000. He pointed out that "as prices rise, narratives will emerge on their own," believing that the current level is still a good accumulation zone.Van de Poppe also noted that market attention has recently shifted to technology sectors such as AI. As of Friday's close, Nvidia (NVDA) shares have risen 5.08% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has fallen about 10% during the same period. The last time Bitcoin reached $100,000 was on November 13 last year, and it dropped to an annual low of $60,000 in February. At the time of writing, it is at $78,250, having risen 14.49% in the past 30 days.Veteran trader Peter Blandt previously told Cointelegraph that the Clarity Act is a positive development for the industry, but it is unlikely to be the main catalyst for a significant rise in Bitcoin prices. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Faryar Shirzad stated on Friday that after the announcement of new stablecoin yield terms, "it's time" to finalize the Clarity Act. Additionally, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt mentioned this week at the Las Vegas Bitcoin Conference that a "major announcement" regarding the Trump administration's Bitcoin reserves will be released in the coming weeks.

This week, the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs was $162.8 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $136.6 million, ARKB had a net inflow of $5.01 million, and FBTC had a net inflow of $4.85 million.

Paradigm general partner Dan Robinson proposed the "Proof of Address Control Timestamp" (PACTs) mechanism, aimed at providing a protection path for Bitcoin addresses against potential threats from quantum computing.This solution allows holders to generate address control proofs through BIP-322 and create on-chain commitments using a random salt value, completing time anchoring with OpenTimestamps to establish ownership proof without disclosing wallet information. If quantum-vulnerable addresses are frozen in the future through a soft fork, users can submit STARK zero-knowledge proofs to unlock their assets when spending. This mechanism also provides a potential recovery path for wallets derived from BIP-32, but its implementation still relies on Bitcoin introducing STARK verification capabilities and gaining community consensus.

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin may not need a new story or catalyst to drive it back to $100,000—Bitcoin has not reached that price for nearly five months. In a post on X on Friday, van de Poppe posed the question, "What kind of narrative can push Bitcoin to $100,000?" He then stated, "No narrative is needed to push the price." He added, "Prices rise, and narratives will emerge. That’s why relying solely on math, statistics, and logic is enough to win, and why the current ranges of Bitcoin are still good accumulation zones."Many participants in the crypto market still believe that Bitcoin needs a strong narrative to drive prices upward. Recently, the market's focus has been on potential catalysts such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, regulatory progress in the U.S., and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some participants also pointed to the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as a factor that could drive Bitcoin upward. However, veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that the CLARITY Act is a positive step for the industry but is unlikely to be the main catalyst for pushing Bitcoin prices higher. Brandt said, "Is this a macro development that shakes the world? No. It's certainly necessary, but it is not an event that should redefine value." Meanwhile, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt stated this week at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas that a "major announcement" regarding President Trump's Bitcoin reserves will be made in a few weeks.

The leader of the Reform Party, Farage, has been accused by the opposition of having a conflict of interest. In 2024, he received a personal donation of £5 million from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne, after which the Reform Party proposed a regulatory draft for the cryptocurrency industry, aiming to reduce the stamp duty on cryptocurrency transactions from 24% to 10%, and proposed the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve and a reduction in capital gains tax on crypto assets.Farage has admitted to receiving the aforementioned donation, and the Reform Party stated that policy-making is unrelated to donors. Additionally, Harborne donated £12 million to the party last year, and cryptocurrency businessman Ben Delo also donated £4 million this year. Farage is currently facing allegations of violating House of Commons rules, which could result in the suspension of his parliamentary status and trigger a by-election in severe cases.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that as May begins, Bitcoin is still oscillating within a narrow range, while order clusters at key price levels are forming, which may become the core area for large-scale liquidations.Upper resistance: $80,000. This position serves as a major psychological and technical resistance, gathering a large amount of short liquidity. If broken, it may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price quickly up to $84,000. Lower support: If $80,000 fails to break, the lower liquidity range includes $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, which may support a pullback. He pointed out that the current market is in a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, and if the price effectively breaks through the $75,000 to $80,000 range on a daily basis, it may determine the overall trend for the month.

The leader of the Reform Party, Farage, has been accused by the opposition of having a conflict of interest. In 2024, he received a personal donation of £5 million from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne, after which the Reform Party proposed a regulatory draft for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, aiming to reduce the stamp duty on cryptocurrency transactions from 24% to 10%, and proposed the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve and a reduction in capital gains tax on crypto assets.Farage has admitted to receiving the aforementioned donation, and the Reform Party stated that policy-making is unrelated to donors. Additionally, Harborne donated £12 million to the party last year, and cryptocurrency businessman Ben Delo also donated £4 million this year. Farage is currently facing allegations of violating House of Commons rules, which could result in his suspension from parliamentary duties and trigger a by-election in severe cases.

Bitcoin has returned above $78,000, and overall market risk appetite has rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising to a record high on Friday. Although Bitcoin has risen 15% in the past 30 days, the options market is pricing in only a 25% chance of Bitcoin rising above $84,000 by the end of May. The derivatives market remains skeptical about further increases, but institutional spot demand remains robust.The price of Bitcoin call options (buy) expiring on May 29 with a strike price of $84,000 is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days until expiration, this data implies a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising 8% in May. Bitcoin put options (sell) have been trading at a premium for the past month, indicating an increased demand for downside price protection. The lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions can be partly explained by Bitcoin's 12% decline so far in 2026. Despite derivatives traders' lack of confidence in Bitcoin reaching $84,000, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has sent different signals, with a cumulative net inflow of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $10 billion. This metric is often used as a proxy for institutional investor demand.Additionally, in the past 30 days, several publicly listed companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin reserves, including 56,235 BTC from Strategy and 5,075 BTC from Metaplanet. These companies' increases have surpassed the equivalent of Bitcoin mining output for the next five months, significantly reducing potential selling pressure. The insufficient demand for bullish derivatives exposure does not negate the probability of BTC prices rising to $84,000 or higher by the end of May. As long as institutional buying remains strong, bullish momentum should continue.

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time May 1), the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $630 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was the Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a net inflow of $284 million for the day, bringing IBIT's total historical net inflow to $327 million.Next was the Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of $213 million for the day, bringing FBTC's total historical net inflow to $11.082 billion.As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $10.3785 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total Bitcoin market value) of 6.66%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $5.8718 billion.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has turned positive after 4 days of negative premium, currently reported at 0.0037%, indicating that buying sentiment in the U.S. market is starting to warm up.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

The Bitcoin mining difficulty experienced an adjustment at block height 947,520, with the mining difficulty decreased by 2.3% to 132.47 T; currently, the average network hash rate over the past seven days is 965.99 EH/s.

The report shows that as of the end of March, the value of gold in the USDT reserves is $19.8 billion, which is approximately 132 metric tons based on market prices at that time, an increase from 126 tons at the end of December last year, but gold only accounts for 10% of the reserves.The USDT reserves are mainly composed of $117 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, with Bitcoin accounting for $7 billion. The current circulation of USDT is $189.5 billion.

Multiple data points indicate that $80,000 is the next target for Bitcoin. Bitcoin rose 2.52% on Friday after holding support at the 100-day exponential moving average (100-EMA). Meanwhile, buying volume in the spot market increased, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) reaching 11,500 BTC, the highest level since February 17.BTC futures activity is also heating up, with open interest rising 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating new positions are being established. After testing the daily trend over the past two days, Bitcoin rebounded from the 100-day EMA. This pushed the price up 2.52% to $78,800 on Friday, maintaining a solid short-term upward trend. The 100-day EMA, currently acting as dynamic support on the daily chart, suggests that higher time frame charts remain bullish. Spot demand is also strengthening. The CVD tracking net buys and net sells in the spot market reached 11,500 BTC, a new high since February 17, indicating that buyers have absorbed supply during the recent pullback.Derivatives positions are expanding in sync with prices, showing new participants entering the market. Over the past 24 hours, total open interest rose 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating that new positions are being established while Bitcoin consolidates below $80,000. This follows a recent liquidation of about 9,000 BTC in leverage, suggesting that excess positions have been cleared as the leveraged market rebuilds. Futures volume has returned to 98,300 BTC, signaling a return of net buying pressure. However, it remains below the levels seen during the pullback on April 27. Meanwhile, liquidity continues to accumulate in the $78,000 to $80,000 range, with about $2.1 billion in short positions facing risk, which could trigger a short squeeze near this key level.Institutional activity is also leaning supportive. The 30-day change in OTC balances has dropped to about -20,700 BTC, comparable to levels in March 2025, with the decline in balances indicating that BTC is flowing out of over-the-counter markets, reducing the immediately available supply. ETF fund flows show a similar pattern, with ETF inflows in April reaching $1.97 billion.

Researcher Dan Robinson from Paradigm proposed a new scheme called PACT (Verifiable Address Controlled Timestamp), aimed at protecting long-dormant bitcoins, including Satoshi's early addresses, from future quantum computing attacks.This mechanism allows users to prove their control over an address through a timestamp without the need to transfer assets or expose on-chain behavior. Once future quantum attacks occur, assets can be recovered in a quantum-resistant version of the Bitcoin network based on that proof. Compared to mandatory migration schemes (like BIP-361), PACT avoids the privacy exposure issues caused by actively transferring assets, providing long-term holders with a more flexible preemptive protection path.