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first_img AI impacts the job market for junior programmers, but the "non-developer" programming community is on the rise

According to a recent article by npm co-founder Laurie Voss, research from Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab based on ADP payroll data shows that since the end of 2022, the number of employed junior software developers aged 22 to 25 has decreased by 19%, and entry-level software development positions have dropped by 28% from their peak, with the unemployment rate for computer science graduates rising to 6.1%. However, the total number of developers employed in the U.S. has still grown by 4.4% during the same period, with the employment of senior developers aged 41 to 49 increasing by 14%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) further indicates that over the past year, the number of "computer programmer" positions primarily responsible for writing code on demand has decreased by 16%, while positions for data scientists and core software developers that require more architectural judgment have increased by 12% and 2%, respectively.At the same time, the proliferation of AI tools has led to an explosion in software creation. GitHub added a record 36 million accounts and 121 million code repositories last year, and the number of app submissions to the Apple App Store surged by 80% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Data from platforms like Vercel and Lovable indicates that over 60% of new users are "non-traditional developers" such as product managers and analysts. Industry analysts warn that as AI replaces basic coding tasks, the traditional "junior to senior" engineer apprenticeship promotion path has been disrupted, raising concerns about the safety of AI-generated code and challenging the future sources of senior developers. However, the latest hiring data from platforms like Indeed shows that the demand for related entry-level positions hit bottom in May 2025 and has begun to show signs of rebound.

Goldman Sachs CEO discusses the impact of AI: AI is more inclined to enhance productivity rather than directly eliminate jobs

Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon wrote in The New York Times that the market's concerns about AI triggering a "massive wave of unemployment" are exaggerated. The U.S. economy will continue to create more new jobs through technological transformation, just as it did during the past industrial revolution and the internet era. Solomon stated that Goldman Sachs expects AI or automation to affect about 25% of existing work hours over the next decade, with significant impacts on white-collar sectors such as banking, accounting, and law. Research from Stanford shows that entry-level positions in highly automated roles like software engineering and customer service have declined by 16% compared to less automated industries.However, he pointed out that AI is also creating new job demands. For example, since 2022, the construction of data centers in the U.S. has generated over 200,000 construction jobs. Goldman Sachs itself may reduce some compliance and account opening positions but will increase hiring for client-facing roles in banking, trading, and asset management. Solomon believes that AI is more likely to enhance productivity rather than directly eliminate 25% of jobs. He stated, "Technological advancement and cultural change do not occur simultaneously; being replaceable does not mean one will necessarily be replaced." He also called for the government and businesses to jointly promote large-scale job retraining to address the structural changes in the workforce brought about by AI.
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