tariffs

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that Trump has normalized the idea of a 15% to 20% tariff rate, and Trade Representative Lighthizer has done an excellent job in eliminating non-tariff barriers. Trump's views on tariffs are not wrong; he has a higher risk tolerance.

According to Jinshi Data, BNP Paribas pointed out in its 2026 outlook report that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to impose comprehensive tariffs is unconstitutional, the dollar may weaken immediately after the ruling. "This is because a key source of fiscal revenue would be negatively impacted, leading to market doubts about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit," analysts said. This could result in investors demanding a higher premium to hold dollar assets. However, the report also noted that the Trump administration may ultimately compensate for the fiscal gap caused by the loss of tariff revenue by implementing alternative tariff measures.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that it will extend the exemptions for tariffs established under the Section 301 investigation regarding China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026. The existing exemption was originally set to expire on November 29 of this year.

U.S. President Trump posted on social media: "Although the United States has gained huge amounts of money through tariffs imposed on other countries, with hundreds of billions in revenue, the full benefits of the tariffs have not yet been fully calculated, as many buyers of goods and products are 'stockpiling' by purchasing far more than their usage in order to avoid paying tariffs in the short term. However, this large-scale inventory purchasing is now gradually depleting, and soon, tariffs will inevitably apply to all items covered, and the amounts owed to the United States will skyrocket above the already historic high levels. This tariff power will bring unprecedented national security and wealth to the United States." (Jin Shi)

According to Jinshi, the White House is preparing alternative tariff plans before the court ruling.

The White House announced that President Trump has signed an order to modify tariffs on certain agricultural products from Brazil. Trump stated that he signed an executive order in July of this year, deciding to impose an additional 40% ad valorem tariff on specific goods from Brazil.Subsequently, in October, he negotiated with Brazilian President Lula and received supplementary information and suggestions from various officials. According to the officials, due to the preliminary progress in negotiations with the Brazilian government and other related factors, certain agricultural products imported from Brazil should no longer be subject to the additional ad valorem tariff.After considering the information and suggestions provided by these officials, as well as the status of negotiations with the Brazilian government, Trump deemed it necessary and appropriate to modify the scope of products subject to the additional ad valorem tariff imposed by the previous executive order. Therefore, his latest decision states that certain agricultural products will not be affected by the additional ad valorem tariff imposed by the previous executive order, and the new adjustments will apply to goods entering the United States after November 13. (Jin Shi)

Former U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo stated that the tariff policies implemented by Trump are likely to persist after his term ends, as politicians are concerned that removing these protectionist barriers would alienate workers worried about job outsourcing and being replaced by artificial intelligence. Raimondo said that regardless of which party is in power in the future, the political cost of revoking tariffs is too high. "Once tariffs are imposed, they are hard to remove. No one wants to be the president who is blamed for failing American workers. Tariffs protect American workers, and I believe this has become even more politicized in the context of artificial intelligence development." Goldman Sachs President Waldron agreed with this view and added that the labor environment next year is expected to be more complex, which will only further exacerbate this political sensitivity. (Jin Shi)

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that tariffs are a one-time price level shock and that there are no factors that could lead to accelerating inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Harker stated that some inflation may be driven by tariffs, but inflation in the service sector is indeed concerning.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins expects the unemployment rate to rise moderately, and tariffs will keep the inflation rate high until early 2026.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that we cannot "naively assume" that inflationary pressures will quickly dissipate after a one-time price increase caused by tariffs.

According to Jinshi Data, S&P Global stated that U.S. tariffs will impose an additional cost of $1.2 trillion on businesses by 2025, most of which will be passed on to consumers.

美国总统特朗普表示，"如果最高法院裁定关税无效，我会想办法的。"(金十)

特朗普在 Truth Social 发文表示："Opponents of tariffs are fools! We are now the richest and most respected country in the world, with an inflation rate of almost zero and the stock market hitting all-time highs. The balance of 401k retirement accounts has also reached an all-time high.We earn trillions of dollars every year and will soon be able to start repaying our massive debt of up to 37 trillion dollars. Investment in America has reached an all-time high, and factories and businesses are springing up like mushrooms after rain. Everyone will receive at least $2,000 in dividends (except for high-income earners!)"

On Thursday, U.S. President Trump publicly acknowledged for the first time that American consumers "may" bear "some" of the higher prices resulting from the tariffs he has implemented, marking a significant shift from his long-standing assertion that "foreigners pay." This statement comes as the U.S. Supreme Court questions the legality of his use of executive power to set tariffs. Trump had previously warned that any ruling stripping him of his tariff powers would be "catastrophic." He stated that if the ruling is unfavorable, his administration must immediately initiate some sort of "Plan B" to respond, claiming that such a move would have a "devastating impact" on the United States. (Jinshi)

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Musalem stated that tariffs are driving up inflation, but their impact is expected to gradually fade next year.

UBS Group analysts pointed out that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump's tariff policy is illegal, it is expected to force the U.S. government to refund about $140 billion in taxes to importers, equivalent to 7.9% of the estimated federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025. Once the U.S. government loses the case, the massive tax refunds will immediately trigger a fiscal shock, and may lead to the formation of a structurally low-tariff trade environment. If trade partners do not retaliate, this environment will ultimately benefit the U.S. economy and stock market. UBS estimates that the government is likely to use legal tools such as Section 201 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to rebuild tariff barriers, but this process will take several quarters and lead to a decrease in trade policy flexibility.Although refunds will bring unexpected windfalls to import businesses, the impact on the overall market may be limited since tariff costs have not significantly lowered the earnings expectations of the S&P 500 index. UBS believes that the ruling may ultimately lower the overall effective tariff rate, enhance household purchasing power, alleviate inflationary pressures, and provide the Federal Reserve with more room for easing interest rates. As long as trade partners avoid escalating retaliatory measures, this will generally be welcomed by stock market investors.

Recent adjustments to multiple tariff and non-tariff measures have been made by both China and the United States, beginning to implement the consensus reached during the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations. On the 4th local time, the White House issued two presidential executive orders, announcing that starting from November 10, 2025, the 10% so-called fentanyl tariff imposed on Chinese goods will be canceled, and the one-year extension of the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be implemented. On the 5th, two Chinese departments successively released corresponding adjustment measures. Huo Jian Guo, vice president of the China WTO Research Association, stated that currently, both sides are implementing the first aspect of the consensus, which involves the increase of fentanyl tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs imposed on China on March 4 and April 4, with China taking corresponding countermeasures.He indicated that according to the consensus reached by both sides, the future implementation of the results of China-U.S. consultations will involve the U.S. 50% penetration rules and relevant trade restrictions related to the 301 investigations on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, as well as cooperation on fentanyl control and the expansion of agricultural trade between both sides. (Global Times)

According to Jin Shi, the U.S. Supreme Court has officially begun hearing arguments regarding President Trump's tariffs.