inflation

In August, core inflation in the United States rose by 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, but the stock market and cryptocurrency market reacted mildly. After a brief dip, Bitcoin rebounded over 3% to return above $79,000, with the market betting that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to 85%.

The financial blog Zero Hedge pointed out that today's U.S. CPI report shows that core CPI is running hot, while "super core inflation" is exceptionally heated, mainly due to historic price increases in education and communication services, with mobile communication service prices skyrocketing to record levels.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that in the August CPI, core services inflation excluding housing rose by 0.51% month-over-month, the highest level since January, and increased by 3% year-over-year. Core goods inflation rose by 0.11% month-over-month and increased by 0.7% year-over-year. Housing inflation rose by 0.26% month-over-month and increased by 3% year-over-year.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the inflation data was released, as the market increased bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting and maintain this until the end of 2027, despite rising market expectations for a rate hike.Surveys show that only 13 economists anticipate a rate increase this month, while the market believes there is a 70% chance of a rate hike next week. Yelena Shulyatyeva warned that rising inflation could change the current situation.

Eurozone government bond prices fell on Friday, with the global bond market expected to record its worst weekly performance since the outbreak of the Iran war, as soaring energy prices forced central banks worldwide to take swift action against inflation. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points and adjusted its inflation and growth forecasts. The yield on Germany's two-year government bonds rose to 3.208%, the highest since October 2023.

Due to the rebound in gasoline prices, the consumer price increase in the U.S. for August is expected to accelerate, reinforcing market expectations for a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August CPI report on Friday. Economists point out that oil prices returning to over $100 per barrel will keep inflation high.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation will remain above target levels until the first half of 2027.

This week's upcoming release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has become a key point for judging whether inflation is re-accelerating. Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that, against the backdrop of 162,000 new non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, the demand side in the U.S. remains resilient. If core PPI and service prices continue to stay high, companies may pass costs onto consumers, driving up subsequent CPI and prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy path of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period."Lewis Huang further analyzed two scenarios: if PPI exceeds expectations but CPI remains moderate, it indicates that companies lack pricing power and can only compress profit margins to absorb costs; if both PPI and CPI exceed expectations, it signifies that the inflation transmission chain has reopened, potentially serving as a catalyst for a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. From a trading perspective, if PPI exceeds expectations and drives the dollar up, gold and high-valuation tech indices like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if PPI falls short of expectations and the dollar retreats, it would support a rebound in gold and growth stock indices.Lewis Huang reminded traders that they should not only focus on the first wave of market movements following the data release but also observe whether PPI is confirmed by CPI, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields. If the rise in PPI is merely a short-term cost shock, the market impact will be limited; if costs continue to be transmitted to consumers, the market narrative may shift back to "recurring inflation and the continuation of high interest rates."

The European Central Bank is expected to implement its second interest rate hike since the energy prices surged due to the Iran war, as inflation remains persistently above target.Institutional surveys show that, except for one analyst, the rest expect the deposit rate to be raised by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday. Policymakers are responding to last month's consumer price increase that surpassed 3%.

Despite the weakness of the dollar, gold prices still fell as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets stated that gold prices remained above the $4,400 level, indicating that defensive demand was sufficient to offset the pressures from a strong labor market.The market is balancing the strong economic data supporting interest rate hikes with the safe-haven demand brought about by geopolitical uncertainty. The focus is shifting to the U.S. PPI and CPI data to be released later this week.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the inflation data in August performs strongly, he will consider supporting an interest rate hike in September. Communication regarding the reaction function helps the public plan, and a significant acceleration in inflation may not be necessary to support a tighter policy stance.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas has publicly expressed his support for Bitcoin, stating that "Bitcoin changes a fundamental rule: no one can print more money just because they want to." He characterized fiat currency inflation as an "invisible tax" and called on the public to learn relevant knowledge, purchase, and hold Bitcoin to protect savings and defend freedom.It is worth noting that Salinas is currently under investigation for tax fraud in Mexico and the United States.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not decline.He warned that the inflation rate has remained above target for more than 5 years, and there is a risk of entrenched price pressures. Barr indicated that if upcoming data shows inflation is cooling, policymakers can afford to be patient.In a speech at an event in Washington on Tuesday, Barr said, "If the data trends give me confidence that inflation is easing and moving toward the 2% target, then I think we can take a little more time to assess the policy stance. But if inflation does not appear to be cooling sufficiently, then I think we should take decisive action to raise interest rates."

The revenue from fees priced in SOL on Solana reached a seven-day average of nearly 9,200 SOL on August 27, an increase of over 80% compared to three months ago; the non-voting transaction volume also set a new seven-day high of 191 million transactions, compared to only 88 million transactions a year ago. Jito validator tips averaged 2,073 SOL daily over the past week, a 26% increase week-on-week, directly reflecting the increase in on-chain activity.Meanwhile, the SGP-0002 "Dual Deflation" proposal passed last Friday with just over 67% support (the threshold was 66.67%), with a voting participation rate of 60.7%, covering 1,326 validators, setting a historical high for governance participation on the Solana chain. This proposal will double the annual deflation rate from 15% to 30%, expected to reduce the planned issuance by approximately 18.9 million SOL over six years.This means that the new SOL supply entering the market each year will decrease, and the rewards for validators completing the same amount of work will also decline. Staking rewards will drop from about 5.25% to 2.25% in the third year, which will squeeze validators that rely on inflation revenue rather than transaction fees, and many validators may face losses within three years. However, this impact will mainly affect small independent operators, and ordinary users are not expected to experience significant changes in the speed and costs of using the Solana network.