Bitget UEX Daily Report | Inflation pressure rises; Tech earnings reports face scrutiny; BTC approaches institutional cost line (October 26, 2026)

I. Selected Hot News

1. U.S. Economy | Business Expansion Remains Strong, Price Increases Reach Four-Year High

The preliminary value of the U.S. Composite PMI for October fell from 58.4 to 57.6, still within a strong expansion range; the composite price increase for goods and services is the largest since August 2022. Demand growth, supply bottlenecks, and energy costs together constitute the current operating environment for businesses.

Market Impact: Growth resilience supports corporate revenue, but price pressures will compress the space for monetary policy easing. This week's focus is on whether companies can cover costs through revenue growth and price increases, and realize profits and cash flow in their earnings reports.

2. Energy | Supply Concerns Push Up Oil Prices Last Week, Opening Drop on Monday

Last Friday, the settlement price of Brent crude oil rose to $116.72 per barrel, with supply concerns following attacks in Saudi Arabia continuing to affect the market; this morning, December Brent futures fell to $110.32 per barrel. The Friday settlement and Monday intraday prices are at different points in time, and the morning drop does not yet confirm the resolution of supply risks.

Market Impact: High oil prices continue to affect the costs of transportation, chemicals, and consumer goods companies. Next, we will focus on actual production and transportation conditions, as well as whether the decline in oil prices can be sustained, thereby alleviating pressure on corporate profit margins.

3. U.S. Consumption | Confidence Final Value 48.0, Current Situation Clearly Weakening

The final value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence for October is 48.0, slightly lower than September's 48.1; the current economic conditions index fell from 50.9 to 46.7, while the expectations index rose from 46.3 to 48.8. Consumers' judgments about the current situation and future expectations have diverged.

Market Impact: The coexistence of strong business activity and weak consumer sentiment makes the sales structure and pricing power of consumer companies more important. Future assessments of demand should combine actual consumption, sales, and promotional intensity, rather than relying solely on improved expectations to infer a comprehensive recovery in consumption.

II. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

| Item | Reference Price | Data Source | |------|----------------|-------------| | Gold Futures | $4,001.90 per ounce | December contract, October 26, 08:23 | | Silver Futures | $54.035 per ounce | December contract, October 26, 08:23 | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | $101.78 per barrel | December contract, October 26, 08:23 | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | $110.32 per barrel | December contract, October 26, 08:22 | | U.S. Dollar Index DXY | 101.693 | October 26, 08:23 | | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.988% | October 23 close |

This morning, oil prices are below last Friday's settlement level, but energy prices remain high; gold is around $4,000, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is close to 5%. Currently, it is necessary to observe costs, financing conditions, and corporate profits simultaneously; a single asset decline is not sufficient to represent an overall improvement in financial conditions.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: 80,322.15 USDT, down 0.71% in 24 hours. ETH: 2,336.32 USDT, down 0.95% in 24 hours. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.68 trillion, down 4.33% in 24 hours, with the total market capitalization updated at 08:23 Beijing time.

The liquidation distance and cost difference are calculated based on the concurrent U.S. dollar reference price of BTC 80,240.86 and ETH 2,333.96.

BTC liquidation zone: The upper range of approximately $81,100---$81,700 is a significant potential short liquidation area, about 1.07%---1.82% from the current price; the lower range of approximately $79,300---$79,900 is a potential long liquidation area, about 0.42%---1.17% from the current price. The lower end is closer; if it continues to fall, attention should be paid to whether long liquidation amplifies volatility.

ETH liquidation zone: The upper range of approximately $2,360---$2,395 is a significant potential short liquidation area, about 1.12%---2.62% from the current price; the lower range of approximately $2,295---$2,315 is a potential long liquidation area, about 0.81%---1.67% from the current price. The lower end is slightly closer; during a decline, attention should be paid to long liquidation pressure, while during a rebound, observe changes in upper short positions.

BTC institutional cost: Glassnode reported on October 21 that its estimated average cost for BTC held by treasury companies is about $80,200, with holding data as of October 19; the current coin price is about 0.05% above this reference. As of October 18, Strategy held 848,517 BTC, with an overall average cost including fees of $75,446, and the current coin price is about 6.36% above that cost; these ratios only reflect the difference between the coin price and BTC cost.

In summary: BTC is close to the $80,200 treasury cost reference, with the lower liquidation zone of $79,300---$79,900 near that cost position; if it continues to fall, both the disappearance of reference floating profits and the deleveraging should be observed. ETH is also closer to the lower liquidation zone; these positions are used to observe potential volatility and do not constitute definite support.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

| Index | Closing Level | Change | |-------|---------------|--------| | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,215.16 | -1.23% | | S&P 500 Index | 7,623.68 | -0.52% | | Nasdaq Composite Index | 25,955.34 | -0.21% |

All three major indices closed lower, with the Dow experiencing the largest decline, while the Nasdaq's decline eased compared to the previous day. The market has not yet formed a comprehensive rebound; this week's tech earnings reports will further test the relationship between AI investment, revenue growth, and cash flow.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

| Company | Closing Price (USD) | Change | |---------|---------------------|--------| | Nvidia NVDA | 210.96 | -0.59% | | Apple AAPL | 347.73 | -0.14% | | Microsoft MSFT | 524.51 | +0.66% | | Alphabet GOOGL | 320.21 | -1.24% | | Amazon AMZN | 248.00 | -0.95% | | Meta META | 642.62 | -0.96% | | Tesla TSLA | 372.22 | -0.63% |

Among the seven giants, one rose while six fell, with only Microsoft increasing. Microsoft will release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 28, and the market will focus on whether cloud business growth and AI infrastructure investments can simultaneously translate into profit realization.

Sector Movement Observations

Oil Services: SLB rose 7.08%, with the company reporting a 6% year-on-year increase in third-quarter revenue; the earnings report provided an operational observation basis independent of oil prices. How oil price increases translate to client capital expenditures and oil service orders still needs to be verified through subsequent contracts and cash flow.

Delivery and Platforms: Instacart rose 9.21%, with potential sale reports becoming the focus. Cryptocurrency-related stocks showed mixed performance, with Coinbase down 2.74% and Strategy up 0.14%; different business models have varying sensitivities to coin prices, trading activity, and financing conditions.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

1. SLB | Revenue Growth and Cash Flow Improvement Support Stock Price

Event Overview: SLB closed at $53.06, up 7.08%. Third-quarter revenue was $9.45 billion, a 6% year-on-year increase; adjusted EPS was $0.64, down 7% year-on-year, and free cash flow was $828 million.

Market Interpretation: Revenue growth has not yet led to year-on-year earnings per share growth, so the operational improvement cannot be explained solely by rising oil prices. Quarterly cash generation capability provides another basis for assessing business quality.

Investment Insight: Focus on tracking client capital expenditures, order execution, and cash recovery. Future improvements in profitability will affect the extent to which revenue growth translates into shareholder returns.

2. Microsoft | Earnings Report Window Tests AI Investment Returns

Event Overview: Microsoft closed at $524.51, up 0.66%, becoming the only company among the seven giants to rise. The company has confirmed it will release its first-quarter fiscal year 2027 results after the U.S. market closes on October 28.

Market Interpretation: This earnings report has not yet been released; the current focus is on the matching degree between cloud demand, AI revenue contribution, and capital expenditures. A single-day increase in stock price only indicates relatively strong performance and cannot be seen as a pre-validation of results.

Investment Insight: Pay attention to Azure growth, AI capacity constraints, and the impact of capital expenditures on free cash flow. More valuable signals are the sustained revenue and profits brought by new investments, rather than looking solely at the scale of expenditures.

3. Instacart | Sale Reports Boost Stock Price, Transaction Still Uncertain

Event Overview: Instacart closed at $56.44, up 9.21%. Reports indicate the company is exploring a sale and has contacted Uber and DoorDash, with subsequent Bloomberg reports stating that Uber has withdrawn from related discussions.

Market Interpretation: The stock price begins to reflect expectations of a potential control transaction, but there is currently no signed acquisition agreement. Buyer willingness and regulatory scrutiny remain key variables.

Investment Insight: Future attention should be paid to the company's formal disclosures, buyer identity, and transaction conditions. At this stage, assessments should be based on the potential sale process, and stock price increases should not be taken as proof of transaction completion.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

1. HSBC Launches Hong Kong Dollar Stablecoin RedCoin on PayMe

On October 23, HSBC launched the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin, code RCHKD, gradually providing wallet functions to over 3.3 million users through PayMe for personal transfers and merchant payments. The bank plans to further connect tokenized investment products within the year, with related investment functions still part of future plans.

2. Circle Gateway Expands to cirBTC and EURC

On October 23, Circle announced that Gateway has added support for cirBTC and EURC, expanding unified cross-chain balance capabilities to more assets. Future attention should be paid to actual payment and settlement adoption, as well as the custody and redemption arrangements of asset issuers.

3. Circle Expands Partner Program

On October 22, Circle announced the addition of eight member benefits and an exclusive community platform to its Alliance Program, continuing to expand its partner ecosystem. The commercial value still needs to be observed through product integration, actual usage, and revenue conversion; member benefits themselves cannot be directly equated with new trading volume.

V. Today's Market Calendar

| Beijing Time | Country/Region | Event | Market Attention | |--------------|----------------|-------|------------------| | October 26, 22:30 | U.S. | Dallas Fed October Manufacturing Survey | Medium | | October 27-28 (U.S. Time) | U.S. | FOMC Interest Rate Meeting, Key Focus This Week | High | | October 29 Early Morning (Beijing Time) | U.S. | Microsoft Earnings Report, After Market Close on October 28 | High |

Key Event Preview: Tonight, first observe regional manufacturing demand and cost signals, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting and tech earnings report window this week. Durable goods orders are scheduled according to the official calendar for October 27 in U.S. time and should not be mistaken for tonight's release.

Institutional View: BondBloxx investment strategist JoAnne Bianco pointed out on October 23 that sticky inflation continues to pose a challenge to the market. With long-term yields approaching 5%, attention should be paid to whether corporate profit growth can offset financing and valuation pressures.

This article is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.