inflation

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas has publicly expressed his support for Bitcoin, stating that "Bitcoin changes a fundamental rule: no one can print more money just because they want to." He characterized fiat currency inflation as an "invisible tax" and called on the public to learn relevant knowledge, purchase, and hold Bitcoin to protect savings and defend freedom.It is worth noting that Salinas is currently under investigation for tax fraud in Mexico and the United States.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not decline.He warned that the inflation rate has remained above target for more than 5 years, and there is a risk of entrenched price pressures. Barr indicated that if upcoming data shows inflation is cooling, policymakers can afford to be patient.In a speech at an event in Washington on Tuesday, Barr said, "If the data trends give me confidence that inflation is easing and moving toward the 2% target, then I think we can take a little more time to assess the policy stance. But if inflation does not appear to be cooling sufficiently, then I think we should take decisive action to raise interest rates."

The revenue from fees priced in SOL on Solana reached a seven-day average of nearly 9,200 SOL on August 27, an increase of over 80% compared to three months ago; the non-voting transaction volume also set a new seven-day high of 191 million transactions, compared to only 88 million transactions a year ago. Jito validator tips averaged 2,073 SOL daily over the past week, a 26% increase week-on-week, directly reflecting the increase in on-chain activity.Meanwhile, the SGP-0002 "Dual Deflation" proposal passed last Friday with just over 67% support (the threshold was 66.67%), with a voting participation rate of 60.7%, covering 1,326 validators, setting a historical high for governance participation on the Solana chain. This proposal will double the annual deflation rate from 15% to 30%, expected to reduce the planned issuance by approximately 18.9 million SOL over six years.This means that the new SOL supply entering the market each year will decrease, and the rewards for validators completing the same amount of work will also decline. Staking rewards will drop from about 5.25% to 2.25% in the third year, which will squeeze validators that rely on inflation revenue rather than transaction fees, and many validators may face losses within three years. However, this impact will mainly affect small independent operators, and ordinary users are not expected to experience significant changes in the speed and costs of using the Solana network.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

In Solana's first binding on-chain governance vote, the SGP-0002 proposal aimed at accelerating the downward pace of SOL inflation passed with a support rate of 67%. This proposal, driven by the infrastructure service provider Helius, plans to increase the annual inflation adjustment rate of Solana from 15% to 30%, accelerating the network to reach a terminal inflation level of 1.5% and reducing the scale of new SOL issuance in the medium to long term.On the eve of the voting deadline, the proposal's support rate had not reached the two-thirds statutory threshold. Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz contacted major validator nodes and institutions in the final stages, and Kraken's validator node Kraken2 changed its voting position from opposition to support just before the deadline. Ultimately, the proposal received a support rate of 67%, with 25% opposed and 7.84% abstaining, and a staking participation rate of 60.7%, meeting the required number of voters. Mert Mumtaz stated that after hundreds of communications, the proposal gained crucial votes and passed in the final stages.

Bitcoin fell back on Friday afternoon, ending a strong rally driven by ETF inflows. As of Friday afternoon New York time, Bitcoin was at $77,379, down more than 3% in 24 hours, having reached a high of $81,281 earlier this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated in his first major speech since taking office that there is "more work to be done" in combating inflation, which cooled market sentiment.The previous rally was mainly driven by liquidity. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.14 billion this week, with over $3 billion accumulated in the past 9 days, of which BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust received the largest share. Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the size of its liquidity support repurchase operations, further boosting Bitcoin's rally.Analysts believe this round of market activity is closely related to "currency devaluation trades"—investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation and excessive government spending. The total amount of U.S. Treasury debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time this month, further reinforcing market concerns about the dilution of fiat currency purchasing power.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin failed to effectively break through the $80,000 mark, with BTC/USD dropping to $78,442 on the Bitstamp platform, a decline of about 1% for the day, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a cautiously toned speech in Jackson Hole. In his speech, Walsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target and downplayed the significance of the recent decline in CPI and PCE data.Walsh stated that although these broad inflation indicators have significantly retreated from their highs a few years ago, the progress over the past two years has been relatively modest. The better-than-expected PCE and CPI readings this summer do not indicate that the underlying trend has materially improved. He also noted that the forward guidance, a conventional practice introduced during the financial crisis, "is now outdated" and will not return in the future. U.S. stocks were not weighed down by his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both rising by about 0.5%.On-chain data shows that there is a dense resistance zone between the current spot price and $86,000, which suppresses upward momentum. QCP Capital analysis pointed out that even if the price breaks through, the derivatives market needs to support it by controlling funding rates and the growth rate of open interest. The key is whether the subsequent market movement is driven by spot participation or leveraged positions. As of the time of writing, BTC/USD has risen 26.35% this month, marking the best August performance since 2017.

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated on Friday that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is "declining at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace" back to 2%, the Fed "has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next.Waller made it clear that he still adheres to the Fed's long-standing policy path of managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. This significantly increases the likelihood of the Fed's next step being a rate hike, which could create a divergence between him and President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminated the ambiguity that had been left previously. At the press conference at the end of July, Waller declined to respond extensively to whether a rate hike was needed to address the inflation issue, which has significantly risen this year and has been above the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they did not convince me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." "Market prices reflect that the market believes we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct."Waller then stated that with inflation rates above 2%, the Federal Reserve's "current top priority should be prices." This highly anticipated speech by Waller comes at a time when there is criticism of its streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe that this strategy lacks clear articulation regarding the recent economic and monetary policy outlook.Waller's speech seems to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views regarding the economic situation and the focus of Federal Reserve policy under his leadership. He said, "Let us also clarify another aspect of our goals: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve." It is expected that Waller will not answer questions posed by on-site central bank officials and economists.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing down and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." Waller reiterated that the Federal Reserve will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed goal.Waller said, "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and the pace must be clear enough and fast enough. Otherwise, we have work to do. That is our responsibility."Waller also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the "primary tool" for the Federal Reserve to fulfill its responsibilities.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated in a live broadcast that this week’s U.S. PCE data and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will become the market focus. The market is not only concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates but will also pay close attention to how it responds to inflation remaining above the 2% target, high long-term Treasury yields, and fiscal pressures.Lewis Huang pointed out that if the core PCE is higher than expected and the Federal Reserve signals a continuation of tightening or emphasizes anti-inflation measures, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may receive support, while interest rate-sensitive assets like gold and the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure. Conversely, if inflation data cools and officials express a tendency to retain policy flexibility, the market may re-evaluate future easing space, benefiting gold, non-U.S. currencies, and growth-oriented stock indices. This PCE data is generally in line with expectations, and the market focus has shifted to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.In addition, the situation in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz may still push up oil prices and inflation expectations. Traders should closely observe the U.S. dollar index, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the correlation between gold and oil; after major data releases, it is advisable to wait for further market confirmation of direction to avoid using high leverage to chase the initial wave of trends.

According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," in his latest article, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will face a core issue during his first major speech this week in Jackson Hole: whether the persistently high inflation in the United States is caused by one-time shocks such as tariffs and wars, or if the economy itself is still overheating.This judgment will directly determine the direction of interest rates and is currently the biggest divergence within the Federal Reserve. In the July meeting, three officials supported a rate hike, while other officials indicated the possibility of further tightening policies, but Walsh has not made a clear statement. Since taking office, he has deliberately reduced policy guidance, and now both the market and his Federal Reserve colleagues are waiting for him to systematically explain his judgment for the first time.The key to Walsh's term ultimately depends on how he explains why the previous policies failed to bring inflation back to 2%. If the policies of lowering interest rates and supporting employment over the past two years were fundamentally wrong because the labor market is actually stronger than the Federal Reserve judged, then Walsh needs to push for a reversal of interest rate cuts. However, this would conflict with the previous demands from Trump and Bessenet for further rate cuts.