inflation

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the sell-off in the bond market has led to an increase in borrowing costs in the Eurozone, which has hindered economic growth and ultimately suppressed inflation. She pointed out that tightening financing conditions and rising long-term interest rates will slow down economic growth and weaken the transmission effect of prices.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasized the importance of maintaining sound public finances, calling it a key pillar of economic stability. She pointed out that countries should ensure that fiscal measures to address energy shocks are temporary and targeted.Lagarde reiterated that the economic outlook for the Eurozone faces downside risks, while inflation risks are tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi Data, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation is close to 2%, marking a policy shift, and the central bank's policy has entered a new phase where inflation cannot be allowed to rise further. Due to core inflation being close to 2% and the financial environment remaining accommodative, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates and adjust its monetary easing policy. The central bank will discuss whether to adjust the assessment of "core inflation close to 2%" at the upcoming meeting.Kazuo Ueda mentioned that the situation in the Middle East, demand for artificial intelligence, and exchange rates will influence the timing of interest rate hikes. The central bank has been monitoring the impact of the weakening yen and the Middle East situation on inflation. He also stated that it is difficult to make a clear statement about Japan's neutral interest rate, and the stability of 2% inflation is becoming increasingly important. The central bank will focus on consolidating the 2% inflation target. Additionally, Ueda noted that the main takeaway from this week's meeting (including the G20) was the communication with other policymakers regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict and demand for artificial intelligence on the global and Japanese economy, and there was nothing heard that deviated from the Bank of Japan's fundamental views. He exchanged opinions with Federal Reserve Chairman Waller but will not disclose specific details; since the meeting in Asheville, he has not contacted U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen.

In September, the U.S. PPI rose by 1.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since March 2022, raising concerns about inflation. U.S. Treasuries surged against the trend due to safe-haven buying, with the ten-year yield falling back to above 5.08%. Gold attempted to reverse the downward trend since August.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that inflation is not unique to the United States.

Jonas Golterman, Chief Market Economist at Caixin Macro, warned that there are increasing signs of a cyclical downturn in the US stock market, and a correction may continue over the next year, with US Treasury yields declining in tandem.He pointed out that despite recent high inflation data, concerns about whether the artificial intelligence boom can be sustained are rising, affecting market performance.

According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with analysts still leaning bullish, but the speculative market is shifting towards defense, putting pressure on risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month; affected by the sell-off in the U.S. stock market's AI sector, risk assets retreated, and the bullish sentiment that the cryptocurrency market was trying to rebuild was once again thwarted.Jeff Anderson, head of STS Digital in the U.S., stated that inflation data will "severely impact risk appetite," and the market is entering a quiet period before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with interest rate expectations still uncertain. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, mentioned that in the past 24 hours, the market's pricing of Bitcoin's probability of rising to $100,000 before Christmas has decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7%; long-term bullish bets have quickly retreated, short-term hedging demand has surged, and institutions are reassessing macro risk exposure as the interest rate outlook becomes unclear again.

Due to the impact of rising energy costs, the U.S. Producer Price Index for September exceeded expectations across the board, indicating that the effects of rising energy prices are being transmitted to various sectors of the U.S. economy. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the Producer Price Index for September rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year.Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. The report indicated that while fuel prices are rising, underlying inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain stubborn. With only a few weeks left until the midterm elections in November, the burden of living costs has become a central issue in the election.This data may also prompt Federal Reserve officials to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, especially as another report released on Wednesday showed that a key consumer price index in the U.S. for September rose more than expected. The report also indicated that price pressures are expected to remain high in the coming months. An indicator measuring input price expectations for the next six months rose to its highest level since 2022.

Bai Xue, Deputy Director of Research at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that U.S. inflation rebounded significantly in September, with the CPI rising 3.7% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.6% year-on-year. The rebound in inflation has strengthened the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year, with an increased probability of holding steady in October and raising rates by 25 basis points in December.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 15. Oxford Economics expects the September PPI to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.5% and August's 0.4%. In August, U.S. diesel prices increased by 24% month-on-month and 77% year-on-year. According to the American Automobile Association, the retail price of diesel reached a historic high of $6.528 per gallon on September 22.As of Wednesday, the U.S. retail price of diesel remained at $6.30 per gallon, over 70% higher than the same period last year. Analysts say that diesel is an important input for road freight, rail transport, and agricultural production. Rising prices will first push up production and transportation costs for businesses, and then gradually transmit through fuel surcharges, transportation contracts, and retail pricing, with cost pass-through potentially lagging. The Trump administration has temporarily relaxed some restrictions on agricultural fuel use and stated that Russia will supply diesel to the global market. Industry insiders believe these measures are unlikely to resolve refining capacity and finished oil supply bottlenecks in the short term.

The U.S. September CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, raising concerns about inflation. The U.S. bond market initially saw yields surge after the data was released, but then fell back to a three-week low due to safe-haven buying.Tonight, PPI and retail sales data will be released, and market volatility may increase.

Surrounding the unexpected rebound of the U.S. September CPI, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that inflation is spreading from energy to core prices. The U.S. September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% in a single month, contributing to more than half of the overall increase, but prices for housing, healthcare, and airline services also rose, indicating that this rebound cannot be fully explained by energy shocks.The data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" policy logic. The economy has not yet shown significant signs of recession, and the Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons to shift to easing, needing to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. After the CPI announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar quickly rose, with the market raising expectations for subsequent interest rate hikes, leading to increased uncertainty in the interest rate path.For the cryptocurrency market, this change is slightly bearish in the short term. The market first trades on real interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity; high inflation does not automatically favor Bitcoin. After the CPI announcement, Bitcoin weakened and fell below $82,000. In the medium term, it is necessary to distinguish between "energy-driven inflation" and "demand-driven inflation": if energy prices decline and core inflation no longer accelerates, the September data is more likely to be a temporary supply shock; if core service inflation continues to rise, then the high interest rate level may be maintained longer than expected. The direction of Bitcoin depends on whether inflation, employment, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields can jointly confirm a new policy path.

Analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that as of October 15, 2026, Bitcoin has fallen to around $81,000 on October 9, 12, and 15, repeatedly testing the same support area. The latest round of declines, combined with U.S. inflation exceeding expectations, rising market concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy further, and weakening U.S. stocks, has put overall pressure on risk assets.Murphy noted that from the on-chain adjusted realized loss data, the scale of losses corresponding to the three dips shows a decreasing trend: the loss on October 12 was less than that on October 9, and while the loss on October 15 was larger than on October 12, it was still lower than on October 9. October 9 appears to be a peak where short-term price-sensitive chips concentrated their exit; during the second dip, market sentiment was more cautious, and the willingness to sell was not strong; the third decline, under macroeconomic negative influences, again forced some swing chips to stop-loss and exit. Therefore, the current market is closer to a gradual clearing of swing chips rather than a full-blown panic sell-off. If the proportion of short-term holders' losses remains around 31%, below the historical cumulative average of 42.7%, it indicates that the clearing of chips may not be sufficient, and further volatility and selling pressure may still occur. Next, it should be observed whether the scale of realized losses continues to converge: if the price maintains near the current support area and the release of losses gradually weakens, it indicates that passive selling is decreasing, and a phase adjustment may be nearing its end; if the scale of losses expands significantly again, it indicates that the market still needs to undergo a more thorough turnover of chips.