inflation

According to Jinshi News, analysts believe that tonight's U.S. inflation data may bring more positive news. The Dow Jones market expectations indicate that the overall CPI for January in the U.S. is expected to rise to 2.5% year-on-year. If the data meets expectations, it means that the CPI will return to the level of May 2025. The overall CPI in December was 2.7%, and the core CPI is expected to record a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in January.Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, stated that a 2.5% inflation level is close to the average level from 2017 to 2019, suggesting that the Federal Reserve has significant room to cut interest rates.

According to Jin Shi reports, UBS Global Wealth Management pointed out in a report that although the January non-farm payroll report was stronger than expected, evidence of a decline in U.S. inflation in the coming months should allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its plans for further rate cuts. Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele stated that the institution's baseline scenario remains a 25 basis point cut in both June and September, which will create a favorable environment for stocks, bonds, and gold. Data from the London Stock Exchange shows that after the non-farm data was released, the money market adjusted its expectations for the total rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the year from about 60 basis points to about 50 basis points, and pushed back the pricing for the next rate cut from June to July.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve Governor Mester stated, "I believe that if supply increases, inflation will decrease."

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve official Harker stated that the current level of inflation is still "too high."

According to Jinshi reports, Schmid said that Congress and the administration may want to stimulate the economy, but the Federal Reserve needs to maintain a balance between employment and inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, White House Economic Council Director Hassett stated that inflation data will be a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve's Schmid stated that further rate cuts may lead to persistent inflation.

According to Jinshi News, Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh stated that there are some preliminary signs of a tightening labor market, but there is still a long way to go before it is fully tightened.Given the economy's continued performance exceeding expectations, the FOMC's focus will shift to the inflation situation. Goldman Sachs still believes there is room for two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year; however, if the CPI released on Friday unexpectedly rises, it may push the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Logan stated that last year's rate cuts were taken as "insurance" to prevent a cooling labor market, but at the same time, it also increased the risks related to inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that inflation has been above the 2% target level for nearly five consecutive years.

According to Jinshi, Fed's Logan stated that if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the coming months, there will be no need for further rate cuts.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that he is more concerned about inflation stubbornly remaining high.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that there is currently no full confidence that inflation will fall all the way back to 2%.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Harker stated that achieving a 2% inflation rate is crucial before any further adjustments to interest rates.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Harker stated that there are concerns that inflation may be deeply rooted in the economy, but expectations remain controlled so far.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that there is a risk of inflation remaining at 3% this year, while emphasizing that inflation needs to decline further.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that the European Central Bank is unlikely to react to a temporary slowdown in inflation, as the current inflation risks are roughly balanced and the current interest rate level is appropriate.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that the European Central Bank will take appropriate action when medium-term inflation expectations persistently and significantly deviate from 2%.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation fell to 3.09%, down from the previous value of 3.42%.

According to Jinshi News, the New York Fed announced that the one-year three-year expected inflation rate remains unchanged at 3%, and the five-year expected inflation rate also remains unchanged at 3%.