ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that he still believes there may be one rate cut this year, depending on economic conditions. It is difficult to assert whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates if there is a lack of trade uncertainty.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Federal Reserve is actively exploring artificial intelligence technology in a safe manner.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that some moderately sized tariff policies will not be passed on to consumers, but tariffs may lead to a one-time price increase, and the Federal Reserve can take a tolerant attitude towards this. The prospect of interest rate cuts depends on the slowdown of inflation and whether tariff measures remain at the lower end of the range. In addition, strong economic performance continued until April, providing the Federal Reserve with time to observe changes in the trade situation.However, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the outlook for trade policy. Tariff measures will raise unemployment rates, and this impact may persist, while there are downside risks to the economy and labor market, and inflation faces upside risks. The "good news" is that there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts later this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, here are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 08:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference;Tuesday 00:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session;Tuesday 01:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event;Wednesday 00:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session;Wednesday 20:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, along with Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, will attend the "Fed Listens" event;Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;Friday 00:00, Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak at the New York Economic Club;Friday 01:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on the economic outlook;Friday 20:30, the U.S. will announce the May unemployment rate, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May, and the year-on-year/month-on-month data for average hourly earnings in May.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that today's "top-notch" inflation report needs to pay attention to two potential issues:Analysts expect that with the "Liberation Day" tariffs taking effect, the increase in commodity prices will accelerate in May (especially in June).Given that inflation has cooled somewhat by mid-2024, the year-on-year base itself is no longer advantageous (Note: The U.S. April core PCE price index recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders are still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpern pointed out in a report that the Federal Reserve may need to support the economy by cutting interest rates later this year, which could lead to a weaker dollar.He stated that the Fed's pause in rate cuts may last until summer, and the market does not expect another rate cut before September. This means that the Fed may significantly lag behind other G10 central banks in restoring interest rates to a neutral level that neither stimulates nor hinders economic growth. This suggests that the Fed will need to take more accommodative measures, which we believe will become a factor suppressing the dollar later this year.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. will announce the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator tonight------the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The market expects that the PCE price index for April may only increase by 0.1% month-on-month, while the year-on-year growth rate is expected to drop from 2.3% to 2.2%, approaching pre-pandemic levels.On the core side, the month-on-month growth rate of the core PCE, which excludes the volatility of food and energy prices, is expected to be 0.1%, but the year-on-year growth rate will remain high at 2.6%. Currently, the importance of the PCE lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve prefers to use it to measure the underlying trends in inflation.Analysts point out that the inflation effects of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have just begun to permeate the U.S. economy. Most economists predict that even if Trump relaxes some tariffs, inflation may rebound to 3% in a few months. With the U.S. core PCE stuck in the 2.8%-2.6% range for six consecutive months, the Federal Reserve's window for rate cuts is closing.Although some Federal Reserve officials still hold a positive attitude towards rate cuts, the interest rate futures market shows that traders' predictions for the probability of a rate cut in September have plummeted from 68% a week ago to 47%. They also expect that the U.S. economy is at a crossroads of a new inflation cycle.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Logan stated: "Tariffs may push up inflation, at least temporarily, while stimulative fiscal policy may boost demand. At the same time, uncertainty and market volatility may lead consumers to reduce spending."Logan also pointed out that high inflation expectations have become entrenched, and correcting them is costly. However, current monetary policy is in good shape, the risks to employment and inflation targets are "roughly balanced," and the labor market is strong, with inflation trends gradually approaching 2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Daly stated on Thursday that although policymakers may still cut interest rates twice this year, current rates should remain stable to ensure that the inflation rate can reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target.Daly emphasized that as long as the inflation rate is above the target and there is uncertainty, inflation will be the focus of attention, given the robust state of the labor market. In addition, the U.S. trade court's ruling to block Trump's tariff measures was overturned by the appeals court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy, which has caused concern among many businesses and the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, the minutes released by the Federal Reserve indicate an increasing uncertainty regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy, leading to a significant drop in U.S. cryptocurrency mining stocks at the close on May 28. Despite the decline in mining stocks, the cryptocurrency market remained unaffected.According to Google Finance data, Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed down 8.32% on May 28, Clean Spark (CLSK) fell 7.61%, and Mara Holdings closed down 9.61%. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) also dropped by 4.55%.

According to CCTV News, on May 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6-7. The minutes indicate that the Federal Reserve agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Participants unanimously agreed that when considering the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the committee would carefully assess subsequent data, the evolving outlook, and risk balance. The minutes state that in evaluating the appropriate monetary policy stance, the committee will continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. If risks emerge that could hinder the committee's goals, they will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate. Participants noted that their assessment would consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as developments in financial and international situations.The committee's assessment indicated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has further intensified, with rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation. Participants pointed out that if inflation persists while economic growth and employment prospects weaken, the committee may face difficult trade-offs. The ultimate adjustment of government policies and their impact on the economy are highly uncertain. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% is appropriate. In considering the monetary policy outlook, participants unanimously agreed that given the robust economic growth and labor market, the committee is fully capable of waiting for a clearer outlook on inflation and economic activity. It is appropriate to adopt a cautious approach until the net economic effects of a series of government policy adjustments become clearer.Additionally, according to Jinshi News, the Federal Reserve minutes noted that the benchmark policy path implied by option prices (representing the mainstream market expectations) slightly shifted downward during this period, suggesting a potential rate cut of 1 to 2 times (25 basis points each) by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes mentioned that staff forecasts for actual GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 are lower than the predictions made at the March meeting, as the announced trade policies imply that actual economic activity will be more significantly hampered compared to the policies assumed in previous forecasts.It is expected that trade policies will also lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, thereby reducing potential GDP growth in the coming years. Due to the anticipated earlier onset of demand drag, which is expected to be greater than the response of supply, the output gap is expected to widen significantly over the forecast period. The labor market is expected to weaken substantially, with the unemployment rate projected to be higher than staff estimates of the natural rate of unemployment by the end of this year, and to remain above the natural rate until 2027.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that almost all officials believe that inflation may last longer than expected. Staff noted that the drag of tariff policy on economic activity is greater than they had previously assumed in their forecasts.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that participants unanimously believe that the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased, and that a cautious monetary policy is appropriate.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari reiterated the necessity of maintaining caution amid the uncertainty of trade conflicts, emphasizing that defending inflation expectations is "crucial." On Tuesday, he stated at a Bank of Japan event in Tokyo that there is a "beneficial debate" among policymakers—whether to view the inflation impact of U.S. President Trump's tariffs as a temporary shock or as a long-term condition.In his speech, Kashkari pointed out that tariff negotiations may take months or years to fully resolve, that the taxation of intermediate goods takes time to transmit, and that the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored may increase over time. He stated, "I will prioritize defending long-term inflation expectations."The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged in all three meetings so far this year, and it is expected to do the same at the next meeting in June. Prior to this, the Fed cut rates by one percentage point in the last three months of last year.Economists generally expect tariffs to lead to inflation, but the extent of this is dependent on the scale of the tariffs and the level of retaliation from other countries. Tariffs could weigh on economic growth and lead to layoffs, potentially resulting in what is known as "stagflation," putting the Fed in a dilemma: whether to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation or to cut rates to support a struggling economy.