ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in July is 24.8%, while the probability of keeping it unchanged is 75.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, JPMorgan analysts stated in a mid-year outlook research report on Wednesday that U.S. tariff policies could weigh on global economic growth and reignite inflation in the U.S. The bank believes there is a 40% chance that the U.S. will fall into recession in the second half of this year. It forecasts a U.S. economic growth rate of 1.3% in 2025, down from an earlier prediction of 2%. "The stagflation effect brought about by tariff increases is the reason we have downgraded our GDP growth expectations for this year," the report said.JPMorgan is bearish on the dollar, citing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, while policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including emerging market currencies. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between December and spring 2026. Analysts stated that if a recession occurs or the economic slowdown exceeds expectations, it would trigger a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. However, the bank remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, arguing that despite policy uncertainties, consumers and the economy still show resilience.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair earlier. Currently, the term of the incumbent chair, Powell, has 11 months remaining. According to informed sources, in recent weeks, Trump has been contemplating whether to select and announce Powell's successor as early as September or October of this year. Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell may even lead him to make this decision earlier this summer. The candidates Trump is considering include former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Hassett.Additionally, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also been recommended by supporters of both as a potential candidate. Other possible nominees include former World Bank President Malpass and current Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Since the new Federal Reserve chair will not officially take office until May next year, announcing a candidate this summer or fall would be far earlier than the usual three to four months transition period. This early announcement could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Trump called Federal Reserve Chairman Powell "terrible" and stated that he knows three or four people who are competitors for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. When asked if he was interviewing candidates to replace Powell, Trump told reporters, "I know who I would pick among three or four people."Reportedly, the main competitors include former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Hassett, current Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates and has suggested firing him or appointing a successor soon, although he often retracts these threats.Some analysts believe this is Trump's effort to influence monetary policy through a "shadow Federal Reserve chairman" before Powell steps down in May 2026.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that they are reviewing and retracting several previous guidelines regarding cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that significant progress has been made towards a stablecoin framework.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that future trade agreements may allow the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Businesslive, since June, the daily trading volume of US dollar stablecoins has exceeded $100 billion, significantly surpassing the trading volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to the quarterly reports of Tether and Circle, it can be inferred that out of the total $250 billion in US dollar stablecoins, US Treasuries account for at least 80% of the reserve assets, which corresponds to an additional demand of $200 billion for US Treasuries.Standard Chartered predicts that by 2028, the stablecoin market size will decrease to $2 trillion, corresponding to a demand for US Treasuries of $1.2 trillion to $1.6 trillion, making stablecoin issuers the second-largest buyers of US Treasuries after the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, according to market news, the dollar rose slightly after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts.During his testimony in Congress on Tuesday, Powell seemed to pour cold water on the prospect of a rate cut in July, rejecting President Trump's call for lower rates.Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown stated in a report that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates until December, with only a 25 basis point cut expected this year. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve does not have or seek the legitimate right to purchase Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures have slightly declined, as traders believe the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early has decreased.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in July is 20.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 79.3%.Previously reported, on June 24 at 2 AM, Fed's Goolsbee stated, "If the trade policy impacts disappear, we should continue to cut rates."

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will head to Capitol Hill this week, where he will face increasing pressure for interest rate cuts from both inside and outside the Federal Reserve. This hearing may rewrite the Fed's tradition of "staying away from politics" for nearly a decade.On Tuesday at 22:00, Powell will submit the semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, and on Wednesday he will move to the Senate Banking Committee. Although such congressional inquiries typically focus on the economic situation and policy direction, the context this time is markedly different: not only is Trump and his administration continuously applying pressure, but there are also key fractures within the Federal Reserve. Fed governors Bowman and Waller have recently expressed support for a rate cut as early as July; both were appointed during Trump's first term and are mentioned as potential candidates to succeed Powell next year. Powell may face a bipartisan onslaught during this hearing: Republicans following Trump's call for immediate monetary policy easing, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is also calling for a rate cut.

ChainCatcher News, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) announced that it will no longer include "reputational risk" as part of its bank regulatory examination program.The Fed has begun to review and remove references to "reputation" and "reputational risk" from regulatory materials, including the examination manual, and will replace these with more specific discussions of financial risks where appropriate. The Board will train examiners to ensure that this change is consistently implemented across all banks supervised by the Board, and will collaborate with other federal banking regulators as needed to promote consistency in regulatory practices.This change does not alter the Board's expectation that banks maintain strong risk management to ensure safety and soundness and compliance with laws and regulations, nor does it affect how the Board-regulated banks may use the concept of "reputational risk" in their own risk management practices.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that if the impact of trade policies disappears, we should continue to cut interest rates. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated: "If inflationary pressures are controlled, I will support lowering the policy interest rate as soon as possible at the next meeting to bring it closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market.""Bowman has been very focused on inflation risks since last year. She mentioned that due to the expectation of more idle capacity in the economy this year, she believes that the price increases caused by tariffs will be 'modest and one-time.' She described the labor market as solid and expected it to be close to full employment levels.However, she also cited evidence of vulnerabilities, including weakened labor market vitality, slowing economic growth, and a narrow concentration of job growth, and therefore believes that the Federal Reserve should 'pay more attention to the downside risks facing the employment goal' in future decisions. This is the first substantive comment on the economic outlook from Bowman since she was nominated by Trump and confirmed by the Senate as the Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve this spring.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that now is the time to consider adjusting the policy interest rate.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, in the face of increasing macroeconomic pressures, BTC has dropped from a high of $106,000 to below $103,000, followed by a slight rebound.Santiment reports that retail investor sentiment is currently at its most pessimistic level since the announcement of tariffs on Trump Liberation Day in early April. However, due to the unusually strong wave of retail pessimism, this may signal a price rebound according to past patterns, as Bitcoin has historically rebounded shortly after similar panic sentiments emerged, with large investors often taking advantage of retail sell-offs to accumulate at more favorable prices. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain stable interest rates has further intensified market pressures. Over the past month, Bitcoin's trading price has remained within a relatively narrow range of $100,000 to $110,000. Meanwhile, on-chain indicators show that the number of open contracts on Binance is declining, indicating that derivatives traders are continuing to deleverage, while whale wallets have been steadily accumulating since 2023, suggesting that despite short-term uncertainties, large holders are still increasing their positions.