macroeconomics

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that attention should be paid to the macro situation and the inflation target should be lowered to 2%; a large number of fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be introduced in 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts say that due to the Middle East conflict potentially triggering a demand for immediate liquidity, the dollar strengthened against most currencies during the Asian trading session. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Securities, stated that due to the "cash is king" mentality, the dollar may maintain buying advantages, which could be further solidified by the greater disadvantages of the euro and most other non-oil currencies.

According to DL News, Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, stated that cryptocurrency traders are expected to drive Bitcoin prices back to $100,000. Shawn Young said, "Although buyers are not purchasing digital assets on a large scale like they did a few months ago, the amount of Bitcoin they buy daily still exceeds the daily mining output. This creates a net positive supply dynamic that could trigger a short-term rebound." Some analysts warn that the situation could worsen.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone even predicts that Bitcoin prices could evaporate by 85%, eventually falling to $10,000. His reasoning is that the soaring stock market has siphoned off market volatility, while gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Additionally, the industry seems to have lost confidence in President Trump's push for cryptocurrency, which will drive prices lower.Researchers like Ben Harvey from crypto investment firm Keyrock believe that Bitcoin's next move will not be determined by internal crypto factors but will depend on macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and institutional investors buying Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg data shows that concerns over an AI spending bubble have triggered a surge in credit default swap trading—these complex financial contracts were almost ignored a year ago. These contracts are similar to insurance, paying out when companies cannot repay their debts.Currently, Alphabet's nearly $900 million debt and Meta's nearly $700 million debt are linked to these contracts. This means that hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge against downside risks. In other words, investors are hedging against a significant market sell-off that could drag down Bitcoin prices.Tech stocks, referred to as "AI panic trades," have been under pressure since January. The BlackRock flagship tech ETF (which tracks industry leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir) has seen a decline of just over 23% year-to-date.Analysts expect that large tech companies will increase their borrowing from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion this year to invest in AI data centers, which could total trillions of dollars in investment costs—if AI projects fail to generate returns, investor risks will increase. Young stated that Bitcoin trading trends are aligning with tech stocks, thus "being the first to bear the impact of liquidity or capital shifts."

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the current macroeconomic situation is very favorable for risk assets.

According to The Block, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $708.7 million yesterday, marking the largest single-day outflow in nearly two months, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $286.9 million. In the context of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional investors are further reducing their risk exposure.BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Wednesday's outflows resemble typical "de-risking" behavior. She noted that when the macro environment turns unfavorable, such as rising interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, or sudden increases in market volatility, institutional investors tend to withdraw funds from high-beta assets first.This is not a signal of structural weakness, but rather a tightening of risk exposure by institutions before uncertainty arises, and it does not imply a abandonment of the cryptocurrency asset class.

According to CoinDesk, veteran trader Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, forecasts that Bitcoin could drop to the range of $58,000 to $62,000 within two weeks. Several market analysts have warned that the current macroeconomic conditions, including the risk of escalating tariffs in Europe and the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, have paved the way for Bitcoin's decline.Brandt pointed out on social media that Bitcoin's key resistance level is around $102,300 and remains in a bearish trend. Analyst Jason Fernandes believes that this target could technically be achieved, but the driving factors are rooted in the macro environment rather than purely chart patterns. He emphasized that although U.S. inflation has fallen below 2%, central bank policies remain cautious, and any escalation in tariffs or geopolitical friction could raise inflation again and delay interest rate cuts. As long as interest rates remain restrictive and liquidity is constrained, the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the mid-$55,000 range still exists.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, also agrees with Brandt's assessment of the probabilities and points out that after years of Federal Reserve liquidity tightening and the worst economic environment in decades, the impact of macro conditions may outweigh any single chart pattern. Options market data shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before June is about 30%.

Renowned crypto analyst @IamCryptoWolf posted on the X platform, stating that the weekly RSI indicator for the BTC/GOLD ratio is currently at an oversold level of about 27.54, which historically has led to strong rebounds of BTC relative to gold.The chart shows that since 2013, similar key reversal points (such as in 2015 and 2018) have led to the BTC/GOLD ratio rising over 100% multiple times. Market data by the end of 2025 indicates that this ratio has reached a three-year low, and analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment may drive BTC to outperform gold further in 2026.@IamCryptoWolf published his analytical views on the Tradingview platform in 2014 and has 113,000 followers on the X platform. The analyst mentioned earlier in November that "Ethereum will still have adjustments in November, and if it falls below $3100, a bear market will begin."

According to Finbold, macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg posted on the X platform that the Federal Reserve has over 400 PhD economists but still missed obvious and insightful economic patterns. He stated that we are heading towards a massive economic recession, and despite the Federal Reserve having ample resources, it remains oblivious to this.Zeberg emphasized that understanding the correct sequence of events in the business cycle is crucial for predicting economic recessions, and the Federal Reserve's current expectations underestimate the severity and timing of the impending economic downturn.The report states that he believes the unemployment rate has already risen before every major economic recession and remains a "never-fail" indicator. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 4.6% in November, the highest level in four years, approaching the recession threshold set by the Sam Rule, and raising the likelihood of an economic recession to about 40%.

According to Jinshi News, next week will welcome the Christmas market, with U.S. stocks closing early on Wednesday and remaining closed all day on Thursday. The market is focused on whether Trump will announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair during the Christmas period. Currently, Kevin Hasset, the Director of the National Economic Council, has a significantly higher probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair at about 54%. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has a nomination probability of about 21%, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has a nomination probability of about 14%. Important macro events and data for next week are as follows:Tuesday:U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary;U.S. Q3 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate preliminary;U.S. Q3 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary;Wednesday:Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes;U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20;Thursday:Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivers a speech at the Japan Business Federation;Japan's November unemployment rate;Market Closure Reminder: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will have a half-day session on Wednesday, and the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 02:00 Beijing time on the 25th; U.S. stocks will be closed on Thursday for Christmas.

The latest report from Delphi Digital, "2026 Market Outlook," points out that despite the subdued sentiment in the crypto market, the macroeconomic environment is shifting from divergence to convergence, with global central banks beginning a rate-cutting cycle. The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening, and it is expected that the federal funds rate will drop below 3% by the end of 2026, which is likely to enhance global liquidity.The report emphasizes that the surge in gold prices reflects an accelerating trend of currency depreciation, with central banks having purchased over 600 tons of gold in 2025 and expected to continue increasing their holdings at a rate of 70 tons per month in 2026. Meanwhile, the massive fiscal deficit in the U.S. (ranging from $1.5 to $2 trillion annually) is squeezing liquidity in the funding markets and putting pressure on the U.S. Treasury market. Analysts believe that as the liquidity environment improves, inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin will find a favorable environment, but the market will not see a repeat of the "liquidity fire hydrant" level of easing experienced in 2020-2021.

According to Jin Ten, UBS pointed out that historically, when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates during non-recession periods, the stock market performs the best. Based on data since 1970, when the economy is not in recession and the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the average annualized return of the S&P 500 index is 15%. UBS stated that the macro environment may continue to be in the most favorable state at the beginning of next year, supporting the next round of stock market gains.

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr, combining on-chain signal indicators for Bitcoin, states that the current market has entered a deep adjustment phase, which lasted for a year in the previous cycle. The current maximum drawdown for Bitcoin from its historical high is -32%, placing it in the middle area between deep correction and market bottom. If there is no improvement in macroeconomic conditions and on-chain signals, the market still faces the risk of continued decline.In summary, the current signal combination indicates that the market has entered a structural adjustment phase: the profit and loss score corresponds to historical bear market areas, and the -32% drawdown has exceeded typical cyclical adjustments. As long as there are no signs of improvement in on-chain and macro indicators, the likelihood of continued decline remains high, and recovery will take time, requiring a shift in the internal sentiment of the network's profit and loss structure.

Wintermute released a report indicating that over the past week, the market primarily digested a sharp adjustment in interest rate cut expectations— the probability of a rate cut plummeted from 70% to 42% within a week, during which the vacuum of macro data amplified volatility. Powell's ambiguous statements on rate cuts forced the market to reassess the divergences among FOMC members, revealing that there is far from a consensus on rate cuts. Risk assets weakened in response, with the cryptocurrency market, as a barometer of sentiment, being the hardest hit.In cross-asset performance, digital assets continued to lag behind. This weakness is not a new phenomenon: since early summer, crypto assets have consistently underperformed the stock market, partly due to their negative bias relative to the stock market. Interestingly, in this round of decline, BTC and ETH actually underperformed the overall altcoin market, which can be attributed to: altcoins have been in a prolonged downtrend; segments like privacy coins and fee switches still exhibit some local resilience. Some of the pressure comes from adjustments in whale positions.Although there is a seasonal pattern of profit-taking from the fourth quarter to January of the following year, this year it has clearly been advanced, as many traders expect the four-year cycle theory to suggest that next year will enter a period of stagnation. This consensus becomes self-fulfilling: preemptive risk control behavior exacerbates volatility. It should be noted that the current selling pressure is not supported by any deterioration in fundamentals; it is purely a macro-driven adjustment led by the U.S.Currently, the macro backdrop remains favorable, with global easing continuing, U.S. QT nearing its end, fiscal stimulus channels active, and Q1 liquidity expected to improve. The key signal missing from the market is the stabilization of leading assets—unless BTC returns to the upper bound of its volatility range, market breadth is unlikely to expand, and the narrative logic will remain short-lived. The current macro environment does not align with the characteristics of a prolonged bear market; as policies and interest rate expectations become the main catalysts, once leading assets regain momentum, the market will have a broad foundation for recovery.