macroeconomics

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that after Bitcoin's failure to break above $82,000, it faced selling pressure and is once again testing the $76,000 level. In four days, the scale of long position liquidations reached $400 million, with prices dropping about 7% from recent highs. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the conditions for Bitcoin to return to $80,000 are accumulating, with three potential catalysts worth noting.First, Strategy (MSTR) invested $2 billion in Bitcoin over the past week, providing effective support amid market pressure. At the same time, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of convertible bonds maturing in 2029, and repaying part of its senior debt in advance helps reduce future dilution risks for existing MSTR shareholders, creating space for subsequent new stock issuance and continued Bitcoin purchases.Second, on a macro level, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.6%, a 16-month high, as investor confidence gradually shifts towards scarce assets. In 2026, $2 trillion in long-term debt will mature, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue purchasing bonds, which will further weaken the dollar's attractiveness. Gold saw a significant rise this January but has since given back most of its gains, while Bitcoin rebounded from $65,000 to $76,500 during the same period, indicating an increasing recognition of its safe-haven properties in the market.Third, if the situation in Iran sees a turnaround, risk appetite is expected to recover quickly. On Monday, Brent crude oil prices rose to $113, with negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz experiencing fluctuations; since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have cumulatively risen over 50%. If an agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, a drop in energy prices will alleviate inflationary pressures, and Bitcoin is expected to return above $80,000. Currently, U.S. stocks are close to historical highs, while Bitcoin is still down about 39% from its peak.

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that Bitcoin rapidly fell back after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The movement is highly synchronized with the U.S. small-cap stock index, indicating that macro factors are the main driving force behind this round of decline. The Russell 2000 index, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises, has a higher capital cost and is more sensitive to interest rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently characterizes Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool.The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts briefly turned deeply negative on Thursday and remained close to 0% on Friday, with continued absence of long leverage demand—this indicator has been below the neutral threshold of 6% for several weeks. Multiple attempts to breach $82,000 have failed to boost market confidence. Macro pressures have been piling up: the outcome of the U.S.-China summit disappointed the market, with no specific tariff agreements reached aside from a commitment to accelerate U.S. agricultural exports over the next three years; meanwhile, the ongoing war in Iran continues to weigh on market sentiment, with Brent crude oil prices jumping from $99 to $106 in the past week, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Additionally, the inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio shows that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% lower than its peak during the internet bubble in January 2000, indicating a significant contraction in overall market risk appetite. However, the massive sell-off in the fixed income market may provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in over 20 years, while the yield on the Eurozone's 10-year government bonds has also surged to 3.18%, a 15-year high. Analysts believe that in response to recession risks, central banks may be forced to inject liquidity, and funds flowing out of fixed income may ultimately seek other asset allocations, with Bitcoin likely to benefit from this.

According to QCP analysis, this week is packed with macro events, and the market focus is on three main lines: first, Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing this week, with topics covering tariffs, rare earth supply chains, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is concerned about whether substantial progress can be made in trade; second, the April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released successively. If inflation stabilizes, real yields are expected to decline, historically providing support for the crypto market; conversely, it will strengthen tightening expectations; third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the CLARITY Act, and legislative progress may further drive institutional funds into the market.Currently, despite BTC facing ETF fund outflows last week, it has still maintained the $80,000 level. Crypto volatility remains at a low for the year, with the VIX around 18. In the short term, BTC is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with $84,000 as a key resistance level.

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, following a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, as the market's rebound momentum from February's lows showed signs of cooling. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data added 115,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Although the overall data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty; instead, it reinforced expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the space for interest rate cuts."In terms of capital flow, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous cumulative inflow of $1.69 billion; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated again, prompting the market to reprice the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, which partially offset the support that previous risk assets received from the decline in oil prices.The derivatives market shows a more long-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 50% probability of rate hikes beyond 2027, suggesting that the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028. On-chain data indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining relatively low, and funding rates maintaining a moderate level, resulting in a weak market momentum structure. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of testing the support range of $75,000 to $78,000.

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor posted on social media, "Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against chaos," accompanied by the "$BTC" tag, once again positioning Bitcoin as a core asset tool to address macro and financial uncertainties.

According to The Block, the Algorand Foundation announced a 25% staff reduction on March 18, 2026. The foundation stated that this layoff is a measure to respond to global macroeconomic uncertainty and the overall downturn in the cryptocurrency market, and it is not a hasty decision. It is reported that the total number of employees at the foundation is less than 200.Currently, the foundation holds approximately $38 million in dollar-denominated assets and 1.1 million ALGO tokens, with ALGO having a market capitalization of about $805.8 million, ranking 78th globally. The foundation stated that it will continue to focus on the long-term development and ecosystem construction of the Algorand protocol. This layoff is a reflection of the recent wave of layoffs in the cryptocurrency industry, with several projects such as OP Labs, Messari, and Block also announcing layoffs recently.

According to Jinshi News, Guolian Minsheng Macro stated that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts this year. The impact of oil prices is more reflected in the pace and will not change the overall trend of interest rate cuts. Although the rate cut is delayed, it will eventually happen.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

According to CoinDesk, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone reiterated his bearish view that Bitcoin could drop below $10,000, believing that the crypto market is still undergoing a macro-driven long-term adjustment.McGlone pointed out that as institutional participation increases, Bitcoin's correlation with speculative assets has strengthened, undermining its function as a non-correlated hedge against traditional markets. The current market needs to go through a clearing process of excessive speculation. Several analysts have refuted this. The CEO of Quantum Economics stated that for Bitcoin to reach $10,000, extreme events such as a global liquidity crisis, nuclear war, and internet shutdown would be necessary.AdLunam analysts believe that a drop to $28,000 may require a global liquidity contraction or a broader financial stress event. PrimeXBT senior market analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with the next major accumulation zone possibly between $30,000 and $40,000, but the likelihood of reaching $10,000 is very low. Some analysts pointed out that Bitcoin completed a major bear market correction in 2022, and the current price is about 50% down from its historical peak, possibly having reached the bottom.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that attention should be paid to the macro situation and the inflation target should be lowered to 2%; a large number of fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be introduced in 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts say that due to the Middle East conflict potentially triggering a demand for immediate liquidity, the dollar strengthened against most currencies during the Asian trading session. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Securities, stated that due to the "cash is king" mentality, the dollar may maintain buying advantages, which could be further solidified by the greater disadvantages of the euro and most other non-oil currencies.

According to DL News, Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, stated that cryptocurrency traders are expected to drive Bitcoin prices back to $100,000. Shawn Young said, "Although buyers are not purchasing digital assets on a large scale like they did a few months ago, the amount of Bitcoin they buy daily still exceeds the daily mining output. This creates a net positive supply dynamic that could trigger a short-term rebound." Some analysts warn that the situation could worsen.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone even predicts that Bitcoin prices could evaporate by 85%, eventually falling to $10,000. His reasoning is that the soaring stock market has siphoned off market volatility, while gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Additionally, the industry seems to have lost confidence in President Trump's push for cryptocurrency, which will drive prices lower.Researchers like Ben Harvey from crypto investment firm Keyrock believe that Bitcoin's next move will not be determined by internal crypto factors but will depend on macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and institutional investors buying Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg data shows that concerns over an AI spending bubble have triggered a surge in credit default swap trading—these complex financial contracts were almost ignored a year ago. These contracts are similar to insurance, paying out when companies cannot repay their debts.Currently, Alphabet's nearly $900 million debt and Meta's nearly $700 million debt are linked to these contracts. This means that hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge against downside risks. In other words, investors are hedging against a significant market sell-off that could drag down Bitcoin prices.Tech stocks, referred to as "AI panic trades," have been under pressure since January. The BlackRock flagship tech ETF (which tracks industry leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir) has seen a decline of just over 23% year-to-date.Analysts expect that large tech companies will increase their borrowing from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion this year to invest in AI data centers, which could total trillions of dollars in investment costs—if AI projects fail to generate returns, investor risks will increase. Young stated that Bitcoin trading trends are aligning with tech stocks, thus "being the first to bear the impact of liquidity or capital shifts."

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the current macroeconomic situation is very favorable for risk assets.