wintermute

According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute plans to invest approximately $1 billion over the next five years in high-frequency trading and AI data center infrastructure to expand into traditional financial markets such as stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange. The related expenditures are expected to be funded by retained earnings.Currently, the non-crypto market contributes about 10% of the company's revenue, with a goal of increasing this proportion to over 50% by the end of 2027. Wintermute's average daily trading volume this year has decreased from about $15 billion last year to $10 billion.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

Wintermute released a report stating that the upcoming U.S. CPI data to be announced on Wednesday will be key in testing whether the recent interest rate repricing can be sustained. The cryptocurrency market has joined the ranks of rising risk appetite. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, totaling $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April; the Ethereum ETF has also seen a net inflow for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by $244.9 million, with BlackRock accounting for over 80% of the combined inflow of $1.1 billion for both.These inflows occurred against a backdrop of relatively low trading volume, more characteristic of institutional planned allocations rather than aggressive momentum buying, and reversed the narrative of fund rotation away from Bitcoin over the past two weeks, indicating that ETF demand is being matched by supply from elsewhere.On the institutional front, Wells Fargo announced it will launch a tokenized deposit business this fall, starting with the USD-GBP corridor and operating on its own chain, joining the ranks of JPMorgan and Citigroup to bring settlement rails on-chain.Meanwhile, the Senate Majority Leader submitted a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act early Saturday morning, which will undergo procedural voting on September 15, requiring support from at least seven non-Republican senators. The improvement in ETF inflows is encouraging but still represents a preliminary signal. A strong weekly performance alone is insufficient to confirm a structural shift; the entire risk asset sector has just been repriced due to one piece of data. If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations and pushes the probability of a rate hike in September back above 50%, it could quickly alter the core logic supporting the current upward trend.Recent key catalysts include the CPI on August 12, the PPI on the 13th, retail sales data on the 14th, followed by the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27-29, and the vote to end debate on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Until ETF inflows and digital asset treasury activities prove their sustainability throughout the remainder of the summer, it is advisable to remain cautious, even as the market increasingly trades on institutional terms.

According to the WSJ, Wintermute's U.S. subsidiary has registered as a broker-dealer, marking the company's official entry into the regulated U.S. financial market. This registration qualifies it to apply to become a designated market maker on securities exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, providing a foundation for its expansion into the traditional financial services sector. The report noted that Wintermute is competing with large market-making institutions such as Jane Street Capital and Citadel Securities.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that the next round of altcoin season may have only a few winners, as market funds are further concentrating on leading tokens. Wintermute's data shows that in the first half of 2026, institutional clients accounted for 72% of its over-the-counter trading spot volume, a record high. Institutional funds typically reduce activity about a day after a significant price increase, while retail funds maintain activity for an average of about three days, indicating that institutional capital tends to concentrate on a few tokens and exit trades more quickly.From an overall market perspective, CryptoQuant data shows that the trading volume of altcoins priced in Bitcoin has approached its lowest level since 2021. Currently, the top ten non-stablecoin altcoins account for approximately 80.5% of the market capitalization of non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin crypto assets. Additionally, Kaiko data shows that the top ten altcoins now account for 63% of the overall altcoin trading volume.

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

Wintermute announced on platform X that it has executed its first power forward trade, referencing the pricing of NVIDIA H100.The market maker stated that computing power is becoming an independent market, and tools for pricing and hedging are now beginning to emerge.

According to Decrypt, market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin's recent nearly 10% rebound is a "textbook rebound," rather than a structural change in the market, and the company remains cautious.Wintermute pointed out that the three driving factors behind the rebound are the easing macro environment, the Federal Reserve's dovish tone, and positive news regarding Ethereum and institutional adoption, which are sufficient to explain the current market without seeking a larger narrative. The company believes the market may continue to "rise slightly." However, Wintermute stated that a single data point does not constitute a trend, and more sustained inflows are needed to confirm a structural change; until broader capital flows genuinely shift, the current situation is merely a corrective rally.

According to CoinDesk, the market maker Wintermute's over-the-counter trading department pointed out in a report that, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and geopolitical news, Bitcoin and Ethereum are falling towards the lower end of their recent range. Wintermute's options pricing indicates that Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $61,242 and $63,563 in the next 24 hours, while Ethereum is expected to fluctuate between $1,606 and $1,694.The report also noted that the correlation among various tokens is rising, liquidity is shrinking with the arrival of summer, and there are no signs of new institutional buying in ETF inflows. Wintermute has marked $59,000 as a key observation point; if the current pressure continues, this level may become a support for the bear market low. Three catalysts will dominate the market direction for the remainder of the week: the sustainability of the peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the PCE inflation data to be released on Thursday, and the end-of-month quarterly options expiration, which may amplify market volatility due to traders rolling over or closing positions.

Wintermute announced that it has completed its first OTC options trade for SpaceX (SPCX).

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.

Wintermute stated in its latest market report that there was a significant rebound in the market last week, driven by two main factors: first, the May CPI data met expectations (year-on-year 4.2%), and there was no unexpected overheating as previously feared by the market; second, the end of the Iran conflict led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices.Wintermute believes that since October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced three pullbacks of over 20%, and the current drop from $83,000 to $60,000 is considered a "bear market false breakout." Currently, there has been no structural reversal in the inflows of ETFs, stablecoins, and digital asset treasury (DAT), and liquidity remains a key factor limiting the sustainability of the rebound.The report pointed out that the risk-reward ratio for BTC around $60,000 is attractive, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed, and the possibility of further probing down to the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.

On-chain capital and prediction market infrastructure project Nova Markets announced the completion of a new round of financing, with participation from Wintermute Ventures, Robot Ventures, Big Brain VC, Cumberland, GSR, Greenfield Capital, Hash3, Bodhi Ventures, and Kairos Research.This round of financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets on-chain.Nova stated that the actual number of existing on-chain capital markets is far below the expected level, and the financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets on-chain, reshaping the generation and trading structure of related markets.

According to Cointelegraph, Wintermute stated that it is expanding its institutional trading business into prediction markets. Wintermute will provide two-way market liquidity for event contracts at major venues to reduce spreads, support larger trades, and improve the reliability of market implied probabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, stated that prediction markets possess data characteristics of major asset classes, but liquidity is still in the early stages. Continuous two-way liquidity can not only narrow spreads but also support larger trading volumes, thereby improving the signals contained in market prices.

According to The Block, quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market sector, providing two-way quote liquidity services for several mainstream event contract platforms, marking the official expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market at the intersection of crypto and traditional assets.The company stated that it has been continuously providing buy and sell bilateral quotes on multiple "leading platforms," with the total monthly trading volume of these prediction markets exceeding $20 billion this year, indicating that this sector is growing rapidly but still in the early stages of liquidity. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at the company, stated that prediction markets have a demand structure similar to traditional major asset classes, but liquidity is still insufficient, requiring continuous bilateral quotes to enhance price discovery efficiency and trading depth. He pointed out that tighter spreads and greater trading capacity will improve the quality of market probability signals.In the industry, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered this field, with some platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having a cumulative trading volume exceeding $150 billion. Analysts believe that Wintermute's entry further promotes the integration of prediction markets and crypto infrastructure, especially in terms of stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems, as these markets gradually approach a derivatives-level institutional development structure.

Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.5%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach a historic high, alleviating inflationary pressures driven by energy.However, consumer-level concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation.The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that "if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur," and the market has not fully priced in the hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported "explosive" earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback and a 25-fold increase in dividends.More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reacted unusually coldly, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfect pricing" phase, where simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to drive the market.This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will re-dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged. BTC hovers around $76,000, and ETH has fallen to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets.In the past two weeks, over $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, with institutional funds noticeably cooling, and marginal risk appetite has shifted back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, hitting a new 10-month low, while the few assets that have remained strong against the trend are HYPE, which saw a single-day ETF inflow record of $25.5 million and signs of large institutional wallets continuously accumulating.The current market structure has not completely deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the capital flow that determines short-term prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if it falls below this range, the market may quickly test the $70,000 to $72,000 area; if it holds, there is still a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a giant whale deposited 17.566 million ENA (approximately 1.78 million USD) into Wintermute, while that address had previously withdrawn the same batch of ENA from Wintermute and Binance, with a cost of about 5.38 million USD. This operation resulted in a total loss of approximately 3.6 million USD.

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.