fomc

According to on-chain analyst Ali's monitoring, in the 8 FOMC meetings of 2025, there were significant pullbacks in BTC after 7 of the meetings, with an average decline of 14%. Only after one meeting was there a brief upward reaction.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating that it is expanding at a "robust" pace.

According to Jin Ten's report, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement removed the wording regarding the increased downside risks to employment.

According to Jinshi, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the inflation level remains slightly elevated.

According to Jinshi News, Charles Schwab's Chief Strategist Kathy Jones stated that the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement may make some adjustments regarding inflation, as the current financial conditions are relatively loose.

According to Jinshi News, U.S. President Trump stated in a speech in Iowa: "I will soon announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chairman."Market analyst Ghiles Guezout pointed out that this announcement could come as early as today. Trump has made a decision regarding Powell's successor.Financial website Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan believes that Trump may announce this nominee during the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting to influence the direction of policy. The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision at 03:00 Beijing time on Thursday.

QCP published a daily market analysis stating, "Bitcoin has rebounded above the key level of $88,000. Recently, a drop below this level often triggers a rapid downward move dominated by liquidations; however, if it can quickly recover, it will pull the price back into the consolidation range. Next, the market will face a series of intense U.S. macro events: the FOMC interest rate decision; the government funding deadline, which keeps the risk of a shutdown alive; and the Senate rescheduling discussions on cryptocurrency market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains controlled, and the term structure maintains a positive spread, so the baseline scenario remains consolidation rather than a crash.In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can successfully resolve the funding issue. If a temporary solution can be passed in time, short-term risk premiums are expected to compress, and crypto assets will resemble pure Beta trades; if there is a brief misstep, the market may initially fluctuate but will rebound after an agreement is reached; if the deadlock continues, it could tighten liquidity and force the market to undergo broader de-risking. A closer key point is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged interest rates, with market focus on when rate cuts will resume. Inflation is still above 2%, while employment is starting to weaken, causing the committee to remain cautious and data-dependent.Against the backdrop of concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, it is expected to emphasize its independence and reiterate the statement of "waiting for more data"; if there is a hawkish pause, it may trigger a rebound in the dollar and lead to short-term volatility in risk assets."

According to Jinshi News, Christian Hantel, the head of global corporate bonds at Swiss Vontobel, stated that the current outlook for the U.S. economy remains optimistic, with sustained economic growth. The labor market is slightly weak but has stabilized. The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target level, which makes recent rate cuts lack sufficient justification.Investors should pay attention to the FOMC meetings in March and June, viewing them as potential windows for policy adjustments. The market will closely monitor signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding further easing policies.

Analyst Ali Charts posted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its first interest rate meeting in 2026, with the market's expectation for a rate cut at only 2.8%, indicating that the likelihood of recent policy easing is low.Looking back at the data from 2025, after eight FOMC meetings, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback in seven of those meetings, with only one brief increase; after the last meeting, Bitcoin dropped by 9%. Analysis indicates that FOMC meeting weeks are typically accompanied by high volatility and downside risk for Bitcoin, even if the market remains optimistic due to expectations of a rate cut before the meeting, the reactions post-announcement are mostly bearish. Investors need to manage their positions cautiously.

The Federal Reserve announced that due to severe weather, the federal government offices in Washington, D.C. will be closed on January 27 (Tuesday). The Federal Reserve plans to release all announcements, including statistical data, as scheduled. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its monetary policy meeting as planned on January 27 (Tuesday) and January 28 (Wednesday).The FOMC statement will be released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28 (3:00 AM Beijing Time on Thursday), and the press conference with the Fed Chair will begin at 2:30 PM (3:30 AM Beijing Time on Thursday).

According to Jinshi News, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in January to be uneventful, with widespread agreement to maintain interest rates. The bank noted that Governors Waller and Bowman may support this decision, while Stephen Moore will be the only dissenting voice.Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, with the first cut possibly occurring in June.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year has fallen below 20%, currently reported at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a rate cut in January rose to 31%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 46.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.8%.The dates for the next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.

Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that after the Federal Reserve's consecutive interest rate cuts in the past three meetings, she sees no need for any adjustments in the coming months.Hammack opposes the recent rate cuts due to her concerns about persistently high inflation, which outweigh her worries about potential vulnerabilities in the labor market—concerns that have led officials to cut rates by a cumulative 0.75 percentage points over the past few months. Hammack is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year but will gain voting rights next year.Hammack hinted that the Fed does not need to adjust its current benchmark rate, which is in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, at least until next spring. She stated that by then, the Fed will be better able to assess whether recent inflation in commodity prices is subsiding as the impact of tariffs is more fully digested in the supply chain. (Jin Shi)

According to Jin Ten, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that the 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, as the rate cut has long been anticipated, and the economic forecast remains optimistic. He believes this statement reflects a dovish yet cautious stance, noting that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach and is still waiting for more economic data to emerge, especially observing the evolution of the labor market, while inflation levels remain high.

According to Jinshi reports, the FOMC economic projections show that the median interest rate forecast is completely consistent with September, while the GDP expectations for 2025-2028 have been raised, and the PCE and core PCE expectations for 2025-2026 have been lowered.

According to Jin Shi reports, the comparison of the Federal Reserve FOMC statement (compared to October) found that the description of the unemployment rate as "lower" was removed in December, and the statement "considering the degree and timing of further adjustments to interest rates" was added (Jin Shi).

According to Jin Ten's report, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the pace of future reserve management purchases may be "significantly reduced."

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that the initial Treasury bill purchase amount will increase "in a few months."

According to Jinshi reports, the economic forecasts released by the Federal Reserve FOMC show that the median PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.1%, and 2%, respectively. In comparison, the expectations in September were 3%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2%.