Data: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has fallen to 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged until March is 44.7%

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year has fallen below 20%, currently reported at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a rate cut in January rose to 31%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 46.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.8%.

The dates for the next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.