cme

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has suspended its decision to approve the Nasdaq cash-settled Bitcoin index options (QBTC) and will re-examine it in response to a legal challenge raised by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The SEC has frozen the approval until August 24, seeking feedback from all parties. QBTC will remain suspended until the commission completes its review.The SEC conditionally approved the product for listing in May this year, but it requires an exemption from the CFTC. The CME raised objections in June, arguing that Bitcoin is a commodity and its options should fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, not the SEC. If the CME's claim is established, Nasdaq would need to register as a futures platform regulated by the CFTC or redesign the contracts.

Terry Duffy, Chairman and CEO of CME Group, stated that the approval of perpetual futures contracts in the United States may expose traders to tax and regulatory uncertainties, as the related products may ultimately be classified as swaps rather than futures. Duffy noted that the long and short parties in perpetual contracts regularly exchange funding rates, a mechanism that aligns with the statutory definition of swaps under U.S. law.The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currently classifies them as futures, and CME is legally challenging this approval with the CFTC. Duffy pointed out that if perpetual contracts are treated as futures, some institutional traders may be subject to the mixed tax treatment under Section 1256 of the U.S. tax code; if classified as swaps, they may be taxed under ordinary tax rules. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has yet to issue specific guidance on the tax treatment of perpetual futures. Legal experts indicate that perpetual futures are structurally similar to swaps but economically function like futures, and the court's interpretation of the relevant definitions will be crucial. Even if litigation clarifies the product classification, the IRS may still need to issue separate guidance on tax treatment.

K33 Research stated that Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range between $60,000 and $66,000 over the past week. The average daily spot trading volume in July was only about $2.2 billion, with CME open interest close to multi-year lows, and the open interest for perpetual contracts stagnating at around 300,000 Bitcoins.Bitcoin's trading volume in July set the lowest record since November 2023.

According to Bloomberg, CME Group will launch single stock futures covering over 50 U.S. companies, including Nvidia and SpaceX, on July 27. The contracts will be cash-settled based on the closing price of the underlying stocks, trading 5 days a week for 23 hours each day. CME has partnered with over 35 retail brokers and plans to promote the product to institutional investors.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 34.7%. By September, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 22%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 54.9%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 23%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 15.5%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged drops to 36%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 55.1%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 8.9%.

According to The Block, Bernstein pointed out in its latest research report that the perpetual contract structure originating from the cryptocurrency market has first entered the AI computing power market. The Architect AX exchange, registered in Bermuda and not regulated by the CFTC, has launched GPU computing power perpetual contracts, which are anchored to spot prices through funding rates, a mechanism that directly originates from the cryptocurrency market. The cash-settled computing power futures from CME and ICE are still awaiting CFTC review, with a launch expected by the end of 2026.In addition, the CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi has previously launched prediction contracts linked to GPU rental prices and introduced the computing power pricing curves for B200, H200, and A100 chips on July 14, with the B200 quoted at $5.41 and a historical peak of $7.39.Bernstein noted that unused GPU computing power cannot be stored, and hedging is the only way to bear price risk. However, the current market liquidity is still dominated by speculative funds, and the difficulty in constructing computing power benchmark indices is also a major bottleneck in market development.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to block the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from quickly listing a 24x7 oil contract due to concerns that the energy market is not ready to handle a surge of around-the-clock derivative contracts.CME stated in June that it plans to offer around-the-clock trading for a futures contract linked to WTI crude oil, based on 10 barrels, arguing that investors want to manage their positions "whenever news breaks." On Wednesday, CME submitted a self-certification application for this new product, meaning the CFTC has only one day to intervene, or the contract will be available for trading. According to informed sources, the CFTC plans to block CME's self-certification.CFTC Chairman Michael C. Selig has met in recent weeks with executives from energy companies such as Shell, Vitol, BP, and ExxonMobil. Another application submitted by CME for the same product (which requires a 45-day review period) is still under consideration by the regulatory agency.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 23%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 47.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 10.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's new products will include standard contracts and micro contracts for more than 50 leading U.S. stocks, specifically including 55 larger contracts and 22 micro futures contracts.The tradable underlying assets include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, and SpaceX.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated in an interview with Front Office Sports that he does not view Polymarket as a primary competitor, but is more concerned about the threats posed by CME Group, Robinhood, and sports betting operators. According to data from Bank of America analysts, Kalshi holds about 91% of the regulated prediction market share in the U.S., with approximately $1 billion of the $1.6 billion in open contracts in the industry, and has listed about 97% of active markets.In the past 30 days, Kalshi's trading volume was approximately $9.8 billion, close to Polymarket's $9.9 billion. CME launched FanDuel Predicts in partnership with FanDuel last December; Robinhood began shifting some contracts to its Rothera platform in collaboration with Susquehanna after building a prediction market based on the Kalshi exchange in 2025.Mansour called for Polymarket to be included in a regulatory framework, stating that insider trading cases on its offshore platform harm the entire industry. The CFTC released a 267-page rule proposal on June 10, intending to allow most sports contracts but prohibiting in-game betting and college pre-game sports, with a 45-day public comment period.

Terence Duffy, the outgoing CEO of the CME Group, stated that the company will sue the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Thursday because the latter approved the prediction market platform Kalshi to launch Bitcoin perpetual futures products.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at this meeting is 99.6%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 0.4%. By July, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 91%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 8.9%. By December, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 38.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 43%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 16.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 75 basis points is 2.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 100 basis points is 0.1%.

According to market news, CME Group CEO Terry Duffy is about to step down. Possibly influenced by this, CME Group's stock price fell 4% in pre-market trading.CEO Terry Duffy had previously expressed "great concern" about the recently approved perpetual contracts by U.S. regulators, stating that perpetual contracts have almost no practical use for institutional investors while exposing retail traders to excessive risk. Additionally, he expressed that he "completely disagrees" with the CFTC's decision to approve the first batch of crypto perpetual contracts after a rapid review, warning that perpetual contracts and prediction markets are triggering a speculative frenzy among retail investors.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.5%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 92%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 98.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.5%. By July, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.4%.

According to Bloomberg, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is considering whether to block the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) from launching an application for around-the-clock crude oil contracts. A senior CFTC official stated that continuous trading may not be suitable for crude oil, as it could exacerbate already extreme volatility during periods of geopolitical tension. CME announced last Thursday plans to launch crude oil and gold futures contracts that would be available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, which surprised the CFTC. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of the existing micro WTI futures contract and is scheduled to go live on August 30, pending regulatory review. A week ago, the CEO of CME expressed "serious concerns" to the CFTC about clearing the way for cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The CFTC stated it would evaluate perpetual contract applications on a case-by-case basis, noting that certain assets may not be suitable for this product.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.5%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.4%.

On May 29, CME included Cardano futures in 24/7 trading, and ADA subsequently joined the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index on June 8, alongside BTC, ETH, XRP, and Solana. However, ADA has fallen 37% over the past month to about $0.17, marking its lowest level since 2021. Issues at the ecological level continue to worsen: the analytics platform TapTools, which serves over a million users, has shut down due to the departure of key executives; the 2026 Singapore summit has been canceled because the governance vote did not reach the two-thirds absolute majority threshold of 66.67%, with a support rate of 65.21%; founder Charles Hoskinson warned that more DeFi projects will fail in the second half of 2026.According to DefiLlama data, the Cardano DeFi ecosystem's TVL has dropped from about $905 million at the end of 2024 to currently less than $140 million, a decrease of 85%. The only node worth paying attention to is the launch of the Ouroboros Leios testnet on June 23, which focuses on speed and throughput, with the mainnet deployment target set for the end of 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 98.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.5%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.4%.