kalshi

Polymarket, which has long dominated the prediction market trading volume, is facing multiple challenges. According to Dune Analytics, its global trading volume has been surpassed by major competitor Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi announced a new round of financing last month, reaching a valuation of $22 billion, while Polymarket's valuation is $15 billion after receiving a $600 million investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).Polymarket's biggest bottleneck is the inability to officially launch in the U.S. market, as its U.S. application is still in the testing phase, with March trading volume being only one-twentieth of Kalshi's. Technical challenges brought by the blockchain architecture, repeated delays in product launches, recent fee adjustments causing user dissatisfaction, and issues such as the exchange being down for over an hour continue to plague the platform.Additionally, Polymarket has faced scrutiny for allowing users to bet on controversial topics such as war and nuclear explosions, leading Democratic lawmakers in Congress to send a letter to the CFTC requesting intervention. ICE CEO Sprecher remains optimistic but admits it could either be a total failure or a home run.

According to the official announcement, the prediction market Kalshi, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has integrated Pyth as the contract settlement data source for its newly launched commodity center, covering markets such as gold, silver, Brent crude oil, natural gas, copper, corn, soybeans, and wheat.At the same time, Pyth Pro will provide direct market data access to Kalshi's market makers. Kalshi stated that this move aims to support the continuous trading and reliable settlement of commodity-related event contracts; Pyth Pro will subsequently expand to asset classes such as indices, stocks, and foreign exchange.

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market platform Kalshi is preparing to launch cryptocurrency trading in the United States, expanding beyond its core prediction market business. According to insiders, the platform plans to initially introduce perpetual contracts linked to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.This move will put Kalshi in more direct competition with cryptocurrency platforms like Coinbase. Coinbase currently does not offer true perpetual contracts in the U.S., but has launched "perpetual-like" futures contracts with long durations and has expressed intentions to introduce more advanced derivatives products within the U.S.Kalshi holds several licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and has recently been approved to offer margin trading, positioning it to enter the derivatives market. Insiders say the company expects to start with cryptocurrency-linked perpetual contracts and may expand this model to other asset classes in the future.Kalshi's competitor Polymarket also announced on X plans to launch perpetual futures on its platform, but did not disclose further details. A video in the tweet shows that users will be allowed to trade leveraged long and short positions on assets like gold, NVIDIA, BTC, AAPL, and indicates that registration will provide early access.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments from lawyers representing the prediction market platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities regarding Nevada's ban on the platform's event contracts. This appeal stems from a lower court ruling that prohibited Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts in Nevada based on the claim that Kalshi requires a license.The appellate court judges responsible for Thursday's oral arguments and Kalshi's lawyers acknowledged that there have been several state-level enforcement actions against Kalshi and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, a federal court last week blocked Arizona authorities from enforcing the state's gambling laws against Kalshi's event contracts."I believe existing case law does indicate that what we want to avoid here is state courts and federal courts simultaneously considering the exact same issue and potentially reaching different conclusions," said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.The core argument of Kalshi's debate is that the platform's event contracts fall under "swap" transactions and should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than state gambling regulators. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig supported this position in the case involving Crypto.com's prediction market and Nevada authorities.Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal predicted that this case may be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. "The questions in the oral arguments are not a reliable signal of the court's leanings; nonetheless, I stand by my long-standing prediction that the Supreme Court will rule on whether sports contracts on designated contract markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC as swap transactions."

According to Cointelegraph, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company plans to launch a "parent portal" feature that allows parents to submit identification information to verify whether their children are using the platform under their identity.In addition, Kalshi will also introduce a selfie verification mechanism to further confirm user identity through facial recognition, strengthening age restrictions and compliance management to prevent minors from using related services.

The prediction platform Kalshi released a video teaser announcing a new product to be launched on April 27. The video shows a green spiral forming a perpetual loop, ultimately displaying the word "Timeless."The community speculates that this update may introduce a perpetual prediction market with no expiration date, breaking through the original time limits of Kalshi's event contracts and enhancing trading flexibility.

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed a motion in federal court on Tuesday evening, seeking to block Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against the prediction market operator Kalshi. The two departments argue that the contracts offered by Kalshi, which are linked to real-world events such as sports events and elections, essentially fall under financial derivatives (swaps) and should be governed by the Commodity Exchange Act and federal regulatory framework, rather than state gambling regulations.Arizona had previously filed criminal charges against Kalshi, with a court date set for April 13. Currently, there are conflicting rulings from courts across the country—while the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in New Jersey has leaned towards supporting the federal regulatory stance, other regional courts have taken an open attitude towards the state’s claims.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice submitted documents to a federal court on Tuesday, requesting to block Arizona from applying its gambling laws to the prediction market operator Kalshi.Federal regulators argue that contracts linked to sports events, elections, and other real-world events fall under a financial derivative known as "swaps," which should be subject to federal regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, rather than governed by state gambling laws. Arizona had previously filed criminal charges against Kalshi under state gambling laws, with a hearing scheduled for April 13.The federal appeals court in New Jersey had previously ruled in favor of Kalshi, determining that its sports contracts are presumed legal under federal law in the absence of CFTC intervention, but courts in other jurisdictions have allowed state-level enforcement actions to proceed. If the court ultimately accepts the CFTC's position, prediction markets could operate nationwide under a unified federal framework.

According to The Block, Fox Corporation has announced a data partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi, with Kalshi's real-time data to be integrated into Fox News, Fox Business Network, Fox Weather, and the streaming platform Fox One, excluding Fox Sports for now, but Kalshi indicated that it may be included in the future. Previously, Kalshi had reached similar partnerships with CNN and CNBC.

According to The Block, the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Kalshi's provision of sports-related event contracts in New Jersey is not subject to state gambling regulations, confirming the priority of federal oversight.The court ruled 2-1 that trading on designated contract markets (DCM) regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) falls under federal exclusive jurisdiction, and New Jersey does not have the authority to block the provision of related products.This case originated from Kalshi's lawsuit after receiving "cease and desist" orders from multiple states. New Jersey claimed that it violated state gambling laws, but the court found that the Commodity Exchange Act clearly grants the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over related trading. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called the ruling a "significant victory" and stated that prediction markets offer greater transparency and fairness.

A judge in Nevada, USA, ruled that the sports prediction market products offered by Kalshi are "substantially indistinguishable" from gambling activities and decided to extend a previously issued temporary ban while also approving a preliminary injunction requested by the state gambling regulatory agency, prohibiting it from continuing to offer related contract services locally until the case is further heard.The ban was initially issued on March 20 and covers prediction markets related to sports, entertainment, and elections. Regulators believe that the relevant products should be subject to state gambling regulations, while Kalshi argues that they fall under the federally regulated derivatives market. The current jurisdiction over the relevant regulation remains disputed.

According to market news, former President Obama's campaign manager Stephanie Cutter has joined Kalshi as a policy advisor.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, reiterating its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and prediction markets under the Commodity Exchange Act. It accuses the three states of attempting to prohibit, restrict, or regulate registered designated contract markets through other state-level regulatory measures, including platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.The CFTC seeks a federal court declaration that state actions are invalid and prohibits the states from intervening in prediction market activities that comply with federal regulations.