Kalshi permanently banned former Congressman George Santos for manipulating the attendance prediction market for the State of the Union address

The prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Congressman George Santos and fined him $71,356 for manipulating a market related to his attendance at the State of the Union address, profiting nearly $18,000. This is the first time the exchange has imposed a lifetime ban on a former member of Congress.

According to a disciplinary notice issued by Kalshi's compliance department on August 28, Santos conducted multiple large transactions in this market between February 2 and 25. Since he was able to influence the outcome, exchange rules prohibited him from participating in trading. He subsequently issued a series of public statements regarding his attendance, some of which were false or misleading, intending to drive price movements in the "Yes" and "No" contracts. The compliance department determined that these statements did indeed manipulate prices, allowing him to profit $17,839.57 in the relevant market, violating multiple rules regarding market manipulation, influencing trading outcomes, and using deceptive practices, and he faced additional penalties for failing to cooperate with the investigation.

The prediction market allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, sports, and economic data by purchasing "Yes" or "No" contracts. As event contracts have become mainstream, Kalshi and its crypto-native competitor Polymarket have seen a surge in trading volume over the past year, attracting significant institutional interest.