CryptoQuant: The rise in Bitcoin is mainly driven by speculation, and there is a risk of a pullback

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: "The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices, while the apparent demand for spot continues to shrink. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to maintain an upward trend."

Moreno stated that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative rather than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin.

Moreno also said: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it usually corrects through price pullbacks." CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the bear market in 2022. While this does not mean that the same outcome will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does present significant downside risks.