We all misjudged the layout of the land and Otherside

Author: @26x14eth (Twitter ID is the same)

Original link: (We All Misjudged the Landscape of Land and Otherside)

1. Disney's 2022 forecast predicts a net profit of about $3.5 billion, accounting for approximately 5% of total revenue, with a current market value exceeding $200 billion, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of about 57 times the 2022 net profit forecast. Yuga Labs' 2022 forecast predicts a net profit of $455 million, accounting for about 84.4% of projected revenue. If we apply the same price-to-earnings ratio as Disney, the market value would be nearly $26 billion, while the current market value of the token $APE is just over $14 billion. Considering Yuga is in a high growth phase, with a projected year-on-year net profit growth rate of 258%, a price-to-earnings ratio of 100 is not unreasonable, which would imply a market value of around $45 billion.

2. In the forecast of $539 million in revenue and $455 million in net profit this year, what does the revenue composition look like?

According to the above chart from Yuga's white paper, the forecasted after-tax revenue of $539 million includes approximately $100 million from secondary trading of BAYC+MAYC, $66 million from the upcoming MechaDog and MechaApe launching in September, and a total of $375 million from two land sales (primary + secondary), with secondary trading revenue from Koda being around $2 million.

3. In this first batch of land sales, Yuga clearly felt the market's extreme enthusiasm. The purchase price of 305 $APE tokens at the moment of design already indicated that it would undoubtedly exceed the forecasted $178 million in primary revenue from the first batch of land distribution. The 305 $APE corresponds to 55,000 public sale lands (30,000 for BAYC+MAYC, 15,000 for partners), totaling 16.775 million $APE, which will be unlocked a year later after flowing back to Yuga.

Why don't I want to calculate the revenue from the first batch of land sales in ETH or USD? Because the price of $APE against the dollar is volatile; during the first batch of land sales, it was above $19. Considering that it has not yet been unlocked by the end of this year, if the financial report audit is based on December 31, Yuga has sufficient operational means to raise the price of $APE. It is important to note that $APE, as a governance token with a limited supply and the only token in the Metaverse ecosystem, has many potential consumption scenarios, making it easy to inflate.

Assuming the white paper's forecast of $178 million in revenue from the first batch of land, the price of a single $APE would be $10.6, which might be a very strong support price before the end of this year. According to the white paper's plan, the Play to Earn game model will launch in October this year, so before the end of the year, due to enthusiasm and token consumption, the price of $APE is logically expected to show significant appreciation. If we apply the market value of $26 billion to Yuga as mentioned at the beginning, the corresponding price of $APE should be $26, meaning the revenue from the first batch of land sales has already exceeded $430 million.

4. With Koda's land price, the floor price has now reached 30 ETH, which, at an ETH exchange rate of $2,750, exceeds $80,000. However, from Yuga's official perspective, Koda's value may not be that high, at least not as high as Yuga's dog BAKC. The official forecast indicates that Koda's secondary trading revenue is only $2 million. Assuming Yuga receives a 5% royalty on each secondary transaction, the transaction volume would be $40 million, which, at the same ETH exchange rate of $2,750, translates to about 14,500 ETH in secondary trading volume; if the royalty is only 2.5%, the corresponding secondary trading volume would be close to 30,000 ETH, which does not stand out compared to 10,000 airdropped Koda in ordinary PFP projects.

If Yuga assigns Koda a very special value, would it be so outrageous as predicted in the white paper? Trezor Hunt might be the biggest function assigned to Koda. In summary, Yuga does not place Koda's position above the community-consolidated IP images of BAYC, MAYC, and BAKC, nor will it make Koda a disruptor in game mechanics.

5. How will Otherside actually be played? From the Road Map in the white paper, there will be a Play to Earn NPC invasion mode, and further commercialization of BAYC and BAKC. But if it's just such a Gamefi, we might be underestimating Yuga's vision. Whether from the official rapid map opening speed within 24 hours or from the Improbable CEO revealing that Otherside has completed tests for 15,000 simultaneous online interactions, Yuga is not delivering a futures product to users but rather a well-thought-out, long-developed mature product, with the launch rhythm being intentionally controlled.

Even if they want to create their own public chain, it has been planned for a long time. The congestion and Gas War on Ethereum are merely a narrative device Yuga is using to "make a name for themselves." In fact, Yuga has repeatedly emphasized in the white paper that they are not creating a Metaverse similar to those on the market but an Interoperable Gaming Metaverse.

How to understand Interoperable? The first dimension is the character design level; Otherside will open a 3D character design editor to third-party developers, who can be issuers of different PFP NFTs. The second dimension is the gameplay level; different game developers can become partners of Otherside, developing gameplay based on a unified worldview and land resources created by Otherside. Yuga only needs to keep selling land and taking a cut. This also confirms that Yuga does not reflect any Play to Earn revenue in their financial report forecasts.

This is similar to early Facebook, which, during the era of defining SNS and web 2.0 concepts, only opened its relationship chain to attract third-party developers to create various social games on the platform. Today, Zynga, with a market value of $10 billion, was born alongside Facebook's platform. In fact, Yuga is not making games themselves. Some gameplay coming soon to Otherside is from collaborations with a series of game companies like Animoca, Nway, and PeopleFun. Is it fair to say that, in some sense, Otherside resembles a Web 3 version of Facebook, while the entire Yuga is like Disney?

6. Don't underestimate the remote lands. Otherside aims to create a Decentralized and Interoperable Meta platform, which will consider the balance of land and the user experience in the game. The inner ring, close to the yacht club, has commercial meme sentiment and eye-catching effects, attracting traditional brands to settle in. However, Yuga will place more resource-rich lands in the distance.

If we consider the vitality and long cycle of open worlds and gameplay, land management beyond social interaction and combat is essential. These gameplay elements will resemble farming themes, relying on resource transactions from the land, which will generate $APE for players. In addition to resources, some specific areas may also have "portals" to facilitate quick access for users; the lands where these "portals" are located also possess certain traffic value. Maintaining mystery and not explaining is a style of Yuga's. Under the asymmetric cognition and meme sentiment before the land sale, do not blindly follow, and do not easily abandon the land in hand. Perhaps, one can also buy the dip.