Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will experience a healthy correction of 20% to 30% in early March
ChainCatcher news, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published an analysis of the current trends and potential risks in the cryptocurrency market. He pointed out that although the cryptocurrency market is in the early stages of a bull market, investors need to remain vigilant about the upcoming market volatility and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Hayes stated that he is focusing on three key variables that will converge in March this year: changes in the balance of the U.S. reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) program, whether the bank financing program (BTFP) will be extended, and whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Hayes expects Bitcoin to experience a healthy correction of 20% to 30% in early March, and if the spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have started trading, the correction could be even larger. He indicated that if hundreds of billions of fiat currency are expected to flow into these ETFs in the future, the price of Bitcoin could rise to $60,000 or even approach its historical high of $70,000 from 2021. However, after reaching this peak, he foresees that Bitcoin may face a correction of 30% to 40% due to a shortage of dollar liquidity. This is why he cannot buy Bitcoin before the decision date in March.
Hayes mentioned that he will attempt to sell at the peak at the end of February and buy a large amount of put options in early March, choosing options that expire on June 28 instead of those that expire on March 29, to reduce the impact of time value on profits. He plans to try to capture the market bottom and close positions during the significant market adjustment period starting around March 12 (between the 12th and the 20th). If his policy judgment is correct but the price of Bitcoin remains stable or rises, Hayes will immediately close the put option positions. By the end of March, the market will return to normal. Therefore, Hayes will resume selling U.S. Treasury bonds and buying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
