Weekly Report | The SEC may make a decision on Bitcoin spot ETFs next week; ETFs, halving, interest rate cuts, what is the next direction for Bitcoin?
The SEC may make a decision on the Bitcoin spot ETF next week; ETF, halving, interest rate cuts, where is Bitcoin heading next; how crypto VCs view 2024, 20 well-known institutions tell you how to seize the market opportunities.整理：Elvin，ChainCatcher
"What Important Events Happened This Week (1.1-1.7)"
1. Insider: The U.S. SEC's Decision on Bitcoin Spot ETF May Be Made Next Week
According to ChainCatcher, FOX Business reporter Charles Gasparino stated on his social platform that, according to an issuer, the SEC's decision on the Bitcoin spot ETF will be made next week. Due to the different submission times of various issuers, the SEC's response times to each ETF may vary slightly.
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2. Matrixport: If the U.S. SEC Rejects the Bitcoin Spot ETF, Bitcoin Will Quickly Drop 20%
According to ChainCatcher, a report released by Matrixport indicates that all current spot Bitcoin ETF applications fail to meet a key requirement, and thus the SEC is expected to reject all proposals in January, which may be realized in the second quarter of 2024.
Since traders began betting on ETF approvals in September 2023, at least $14 billion in additional fiat and leverage has been deployed into the cryptocurrency space. Some of this capital flow may be related to the easing macro environment, as the Federal Reserve has turned dovish. However, of the $14 billion in additional long positions, $10 billion may be related to expectations of ETF approval. If the SEC rejects the ETF approvals, a massive liquidation in the market is expected, with most of the $5.1 billion long positions likely to be closed, and Bitcoin's price could quickly drop 20%, falling back to the $36,000/$38,000 range. Nevertheless, Matrix on Target still expects that even if the SEC vetoes the ETF, Bitcoin's price will remain above $42,000 by the end of 2024.
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3. VanEck Research Director: BlackRock May Have Raised $2 Billion from Existing Bitcoin Holders to Convert to Bitcoin Spot ETF
According to ChainCatcher, VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, stated during a Twitter Space that, according to insiders, BlackRock has raised $2 billion from existing Bitcoin holders, who hope to convert this capital into a Bitcoin spot ETF within the first week.
In response, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that if this is true, $2 billion would break all first-day/weekly trading volume and assets under management records for ETFs. He has also learned from another source that BlackRock is indeed ready to deploy funds into the ETF on the first day.
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4. Binance Launchpool Launches Project Xai (XAI) in its 43rd Phase
According to ChainCatcher, Binance announced in an official announcement that the 43rd project on Binance Launchpool is Xai (XAI), the first Layer 3 game in the Arbitrum ecosystem. Starting from January 5, 2024, 08:00 (UTC+8), users can stake BNB, FDUSD, and TUSD in the XAI mining pool on the Launchpad website to earn XAI rewards, which can be mined for a total of 4 days.
Additionally, Binance will list XAI on January 9, 2024, at 18:00 (UTC+8), and open trading pairs XAI/BTC, XAI/USDT, XAI/BNB, XAI/FDUSD, XAI/TUSD, and XAI/TRY. XAI will be tagged as a seed.
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5. Ethereum Developer Conference Devcon 7 Will Be Held in Bangkok, Thailand from November 12 to 15
According to ChainCatcher, the Ethereum developer conference Devcon 7 will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, from November 12 to 15, 2024, according to an official blog post from Ethereum.
The article notes that Devcon 7 is being prepared to be a more inclusive and regional event, and to reflect this vision, it is referred to as "Devcon Southeast Asia" rather than mentioning the host city's name. The Ethereum community in Southeast Asia has tremendous potential, as evidenced by its rapidly growing cryptocurrency adoption rates. Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are leading in the global cryptocurrency adoption index, highlighting the region's key role in the global Ethereum landscape.
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6. Manta Network Announces Airdrop Plan, Rewarding 5% of Total Supply
According to ChainCatcher, Manta Network announced the launch of the Into the Blue airdrop plan, currently allowing users to check airdrop eligibility based on their contributions to the ecosystem over the past three years.
It is reported that Into the Blue will reward 50 million MANTA, accounting for 5% of the total supply.
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7. Smart Layer: Airdrop Coming Soon
According to ChainCatcher, Smart Layer announced on X platform that an airdrop will be conducted soon, with more details to be released in phases over the coming weeks. Smart Layer serves as a solution to address integration, privacy, and trust challenges in the digital environment.
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8. Better Markets Writes to the U.S. SEC Again to Block Approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF
According to ChainCatcher, the U.S. financial reform group Better Markets has written to the SEC again, hoping to block the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF (the SEC is still collecting public opinions). In the letter, Better Markets stated that allowing a speculative, highly volatile, and socially unbeneficial financial product to be exposed to tens of millions of American investors and retirees would be a historic mistake. The fraud and manipulation in the Bitcoin market mean that approving these products would expose these investors to dangers without SEC protection.
In response, FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that while she does not believe this letter will change the outcome of the SEC's approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it is noteworthy that Better Markets' president and CEO Dennis Kelleher is closely aligned with SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, as they both served on Biden's transition team.
ChainCatcher previously reported that the nonprofit organization Better Markets pointed out in its submitted letter that the U.S. SEC should reject the recent large number of spot Bitcoin ETF applications, as this could harm investors.
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9. Morgan Stanley Strategically Invests in Decentralized AI Project WorldBrain
According to ChainCatcher, Morgan Stanley recently announced a strategic investment in the decentralized AI project WorldBrain, with the specific amount undisclosed. The core of this collaboration is the concept of DePIN, focusing on WorldBrain's WorldModel, Web3 technology applications, and innovations in DePIN facilities.
WorldBrain is an innovative project initiated by the Worldbrains Foundation under OpenAI, combining artificial intelligence, neuroscience, and blockchain technology, aiming to develop a comprehensive, multifunctional, decentralized AI system.
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10. Bitcoin Core Developer Luke Dashjr's Proposal on Limiting Inscriptions Was Not Passed, Opinions on Inscriptions Among Developers Are Mixed
According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr initiated the proposal "datacarriersize: Match more datacarrying #28408," discussing whether to limit inscriptions. After discussions among several Bitcoin Core developers, it was not passed, and the proposal is currently marked as closed.
It is reported that Bitcoin Core developer Ava Chow summarized and closed this PR, stating that it is clear that this proposal is controversial, and it is impossible to reach a conclusion that satisfies everyone at this time, believing there is no need to continue the discussion.
Additionally, another code maintainer of Bitcoin Core, gloria, summarized this PR.
Support for Luke's viewpoint includes:
- Stop inscriptions; they are spam;
- Inscriptions and embedded data could harm the network;
- People want this: there is user demand and specific use cases that Bitcoin Core should provide; another option is for people to write and run patches, but this could be unsafe;
- This is just fixing the data carrier size to make it work as intended;
Opposition to Luke's viewpoint includes:
- This will not stop inscriptions; miners are unlikely to adopt this strategy as it is incompatible with incentives;
- We cannot write code to detect all embedded data;
- This PR changes the default mempool strategy, posing potential harm to individual node operators and the network;
Other opposing viewpoints:
- Generally, using mempool strategies to block usage is ineffective;
- Attempting to "censor" transactions based on usage is inappropriate; the free market determines the use of Bitcoin;
- This also changes the operation of -datacarriersize executed from the underlying users.
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11. Data
- DEX on Arbitrum chain had a trading volume exceeding Ethereum on January 4, ranking first
- ARK Invest reduced its holdings of 26,000 shares of Coinbase stock on January 4, worth approximately $4.16 million
- Lido's market share reached 31.73%
- Bitcoin Deer produced 434 BTC in December 2023
- As of January 6, the total open interest for BTC options across the network was $13.53 billion, and for ETH options, it was $6.21 billion
- Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 1.65% to 73.2 T
- NFT lending platform Blend's total trading volume exceeded $3.7 billion, with over 390,000 loans
- Total issuance of PYUSD exceeded 270 million, with on-chain holding addresses reaching 4,857
- Total locked value in Ethereum Layer 2 reached $19.85 billion, with Base network seeing a 17% increase over 7 days
"What Are Some Must-Read Articles This Week (1.1-1.7)"
1. "Bankless: ETF, Halving, Interest Rate Cuts, Where Is Bitcoin Headed Next?"
Bitcoin remains the main narrative for the new year, with market sentiment rising as the deadline for the Bitcoin spot ETF decision approaches, leading to over $450 million in liquidations across the network due to a report from Matrixport.
As the deadline for the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF approaches next Wednesday, industry insiders are optimistic about the introduction of these tools, believing it will pave the way for hundreds of billions of dollars to flow into Bitcoin in the coming years. Additionally, market participants are optimistic about the upcoming Bitcoin halving, an event in April that will reduce the inflation of Bitcoin block subsidies by 50%, which historically has led to reduced miner sales and driven Bitcoin prices up. Although just two obvious Bitcoin catalysts are enough to create conditions for a price increase, the anticipated interest rate cuts next year have traders eagerly awaiting a more favorable macro environment that will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Nevertheless, the recent bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin is not lacking. However, before unhesitatingly following Bitcoin to enjoy the potential massive gains that may come in 2024, there are some important considerations to keep in mind.
2. "A $450 Million Bitcoin Report?"
Since the end of last year, the expectation that the Bitcoin spot ETF will soon be approved has driven the cryptocurrency market upwards, with dazzling narrative targets such as Bitcoin ecosystem inscriptions and Solana ecosystem memes also rising sharply, as the market seems to climb upwards without hesitation, leaving those expecting a "pullback to buy the dip" far behind.
Entering January, expectations for the "approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10" have become clearer and stronger, but at the same time, profit-taking investors from the past few months are also preparing to "sell the news." On the first trading day of the new year in 2024, market enthusiasm peaked after Bitcoin powerfully broke through $45,000. But just one day later, the industry suddenly faced a long-awaited "bull market correction," with Bitcoin's price rapidly dropping below $42,000, leading to an increase of $451 million in liquidations across the network in just one hour, leaving many newly invested traders "in tears."
However, looking back at the 312 before the last crypto bull market and the 519 during the bull market, the crypto industry has not been short of significant drops during active market periods. The current price fluctuations in the market further prove that the crypto market is on the path to a new bull market.
3. "Binance's New Launchpool Project XAI: The Most Anticipated Chain Game Layer 3 on Arbitrum"
On January 3, Binance launched the 43rd project on Launchpool, XAI, while opening the BNB, FDUSD, and TUSD reward pools, with mining starting from January 5 at 00:00 (UTC). XAI will be listed on Binance on January 9, 2024, at 10:00 (UTC), and trading pairs XAI/BTC, XAI/USDT, XAI/BNB, XAI/FDUSD, XAI/TUSD, and XAI/TRY will also be opened simultaneously.
Xai (XAI) is built on Arbitrum, a blockchain network custom-developed to meet the demands of large-scale Web3 gaming, developed by Offchain Labs. What are the characteristics of Xai compared to other networks as a network tailored for chain games? How is the gaming ecosystem on it developing? BlockBeats will introduce this in the article.
4. "The Wealth Game at the Top: Exploring New Flywheels and Governance Models in Web3 Games"
With the recent market recovery, some interesting projects have come to our attention. It also presents practical cases following web3 game design theories such as IAT (In-app Taxation) and BLOG.
This article aims to accomplish two things:
1) Using Gas Hero and Lumiterra as examples, it clarifies the new flywheel of web3 games under the business model of IAT, namely the wealth game at the top. 2) Using Gas Hero, Lumiterra, and Crypto Raiders as examples, it analyzes governance models in web3 games.
Under the strong stimulus of the primary market, the amount of investment and financing in the crypto field remained strong in December compared to the previous third quarter, but showed a decline from November, dropping from $1.2 billion to $910 million. This may largely be influenced by the Christmas holiday in Europe and the U.S., with many financing announcements delayed, and significant financing noticeably decreased.
At the same time, financing events for Bitcoin ecosystem projects have significantly increased, with Bitcoin ecosystem DeFi solution BitSmiley receiving investments from ABCDE Capital and OKX Ventures, and Bitcoin chain game Ordz Games completing seed round financing, while the Ordinals market continues to receive significant attention.
This article will focus on specific financing data, active investors, trending projects, new token projects, and other aspects to present the changing trends in the crypto market.
At the end of 2022, the cryptocurrency industry faced the collapse of FTX, and market sentiment was extremely low. Now, the industry is filled with excitement and positive emotions from cryptocurrency users and developers.
So, what was the situation in 2023 from the on-chain data perspective? This article explores Ethereum's on-chain data to determine which activities and trends influenced Ethereum in 2023.
7. "Interpreting ORC-20: The Enhanced BRC-20 That Caught Binance's Attention, Its Dilemmas and Future"
The Bitcoin ecosystem has become a prominent field, with BRC20/ARC20/SRC20 competing fiercely, and some investors are starting to focus on new potential projects. Do you remember ORC20 from May? On May 13, Binance Academy tweeted about ORC-20, bringing it into the spotlight. In the same month, OKX founder Star also tweeted that he was working on building infrastructure for BRC-20 and ORC-20.
This article will further interpret ORC-20, understanding its past, present, and current status.
8. "What Is the New Token Standard Tiny SPL That Solana's Founder Pinned on Twitter?"
On January 3, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko, who previously popularized Silly, retweeted a post on his social media, bringing significant attention to a protocol called "Tiny SPL." According to the tweet, Tiny SPL is a new token standard protocol on Solana that introduces a "state compression" method, allowing users to hold tokens on Solana without paying storage rent.
9. "Making Ethereum Future-Ready: Expectations for the 2024 Ethereum Roadmap"
On December 31, Vitalik Buterin published an article updating the Ethereum roadmap, stating that as Ethereum's technical path continues to solidify, changes are relatively few. These include: 1. The Merge: The role of single-slot finality (SSF) in the post-Merge PoS improvements is being solidified; 2. The Surge: Significant progress has been made in both EIP-4844 and rollups themselves; 3. The Scourge: After a certain degree of redesign, the current focus is on combating economic centralization in PoS in two key areas: (i) MEV, (ii) general staking pool issues; 4. The Verge: Significant progress has been made; 5. The Purge: "State expiration" has been narrowed to reflect general consensus; 6. The Splurge: Due to existing structural crypto weaknesses, VDF has been narrowed to reflect temporarily reduced focus.
In response, the Ethereum community has engaged in intense discussions regarding the Ethereum roadmap. Crypto researcher FRANCESCO delves into the ERCs and EIPs he is concerned about and analyzes the advantages of each proposal. He believes that although Ethereum's development is generally considered slow and controlled to prioritize security, Ethereum has not remained stagnant, with the implementation of ERC-4337, EIP-4844, EIP-3074, and EIP-5003 playing crucial roles in this evolutionary journey.
In 2023, amid a continuing global economic downturn and tightening cryptocurrency regulations, the crypto industry has shown remarkable resilience. With keywords such as Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, Hong Kong's new crypto policies, lawsuits against major exchanges Binance and Coinbase, the inscription craze, and the anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF serving as a shot in the arm, the overall market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market has steadily rebounded, firmly standing at $1.6 trillion.
With the strong performance at the end of 2023 and the multiple positive news surrounding ETFs, halving, and interest rate cuts, the much-anticipated bull market in 2024 seems no longer distant. In this phase filled with opportunities and risks, hopes and challenges, PANews interviewed 20 well-known crypto institutions, including Animoca Brands, HashKey Capital, Binance Labs, NGC, C Squared Ventures, Cobo, Generative Ventures, and Newman Group, to discuss future market trends, narrative lines, and potential tracks.
