Greeks.live: Short-term IV slightly rises, market expects the highest probability of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in May

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that at 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. According to the rate cut probability table, the market unanimously believes that this time it will remain unchanged.

Options market data shows a slight increase in short to medium-term IV, and there are not many doubts in the market about a rate cut. The key will be to watch Powell's speech to assess the rate cut process in March and May. Currently, the probability of the first rate cut in May is the highest.

Various market indicators are relatively stable, with block trades mainly for closing positions, and the market is readjusting expectations.