Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: April 22-28, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

This week, the overall cryptocurrency market showed signs of recovery, entering a period of fluctuating upward movement after the BTC halving. BTC hovered between $62000 and $66000, while ETH stayed around $3100 to $3300. With the Hong Kong Stock Exchange set to begin trading the spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum from April 30, there was a slight surge in the market over the weekend. In terms of altcoins: most altcoins experienced a decline of 10-20%, with new popular projects including SAFE and MANEKI, and popular projects in the Rune track such as Satoshi, DOG, and LOBO.

Weekly Major Events Review

1. Analysis: Justin Sun's address may have increased holdings by nearly 300,000 ETH in the past two months;

2. Galxe initiated a vote to change the "token name GAL to G" and suggested a 1:60 split ratio;

3. CoinShares: Some Bitcoin mining companies may shift focus to the AI sector after the halving;

4. The SHIB team completed a $12 million financing round, with participation from Polygon Ventures and others;

5. Data: EigenLayer's TVL surpassed $15 billion;

6. Asset management giant Bitwise: Bitcoin is expected to continue testing new highs in the next 12 months;

7. Possibly incentivized by related activities, Linea network's TVL exceeded $700 million, reaching a historical high with a weekly increase of 19.88%;

8. U.S. Department of Justice lawyers seek a 36-month prison sentence and a $50 million fine for CZ;

9. FDUSD issued approximately 500 million tokens within 24 hours, with 80% of the total participating in Binance's new coin mining;

10. Since its launch, Rune trading has accounted for 68% of all Bitcoin transactions;

11. Sui's semi-annual report: Daily average DEX trading volume increased by 3689%, and TVL grew by 1459%;

12. Arthur Hayes: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen may launch a massive liquidity injection plan to accelerate the return of the crypto bull market;

13. Vitalik: PoW is also quite centralized; PoW is merely a temporary phase before transitioning to PoS;

14. ConsenSys founder: Any DEGEN tips received will be used to defend the Ethereum ecosystem.

Macroeconomics

1. On April 24, Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong), Harvest International, and Bosera International announced that the first batch of Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF products applied by the three fund subsidiaries have been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, scheduled for issuance on April 29 and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 30. This is the first time such products have been launched in the Asian market, aiming to provide investment returns anchored to the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum (before fees and expenses).

2. On April 26, CICC's research report indicated that the U.S. real GDP annualized growth rate for Q1 2024 was 1.6%, below the market expectation of 2.4% and lower than the 3.4% in Q4 of last year. The elasticity of inflation will raise the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, keeping the dollar interest rates high for a longer period. The institution reiterated its previous judgment that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year, likely in the fourth quarter.

3. On April 26, asset management company Vanguard stated in a report that it expects the European Central Bank to start cutting interest rates in June.

4. On April 27, according to DTCC data, the spot Ethereum ETF "FRANKLIN ETHEREUM TR ETHEREUM ETF" (code: EZET) launched by asset management company Franklin Templeton has been listed on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) website, with the Create/Redeem section marked as Y.

ETF

According to statistics: From April 22 to 26, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling $17.185 billion, with net inflows of $12 billion. (This is a decrease compared to the total net inflows of the previous week.)

Event Preview

The Bitcoin Asia Conference 2024 will be held in Hong Kong from May 9 to 10, with participation from Bitcoin ecosystem projects, investment institutions, and issuers of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. The registration deadline for the first phase of the Bitcoin L2 project Bitlayer's ecological incentive program Ready Player is April 29, with total rewards exceeding $50 million for the first phase, mainly targeting ecological projects deployed on the Bitlayer mainnet.

2. Coinbase Institutional will launch DOGE futures trading on April 29.

3. The NFT lending protocol NFTfi plans to open token claims at the end of April. NFTFI is a native ERC-20 token with a total supply of 2 billion tokens, with an expected initial circulation of 220 million tokens. Token distribution details are as follows: 25% of tokens will be allocated to the community and rewards; 23.3% will be used for the foundation and ecosystem; 35.6% will be allocated to early strategic supporters; and 16.1% will be allocated to core contributors.

4. OKX has shut down its services in India and requires Indian users to close their accounts and redeem funds by April 30.

5. The social platform UXLINK announced that it will soon launch its first quarter airdrop event, expected to cover 10% of active users. The airdrop will be distributed through NFT vouchers, with minting expected to start on May 3. Users can obtain NFTs by inviting friends, engaging in on-chain interactions, and connecting wallet assets.

6. The verification date for the Avail token airdrop continues until May 5, with the Avail token airdrop plan distributing 600 million AVAIL tokens to 354,605 wallet addresses.

7. Approximately 1.39 million unclaimed DMAIL tokens from Dmail Network's first quarter airdrop will be used for the next round of airdrops, with the second quarter of the DMAIL airdrop scheduled for May or July 2024.

Important Events

1. The deadline for submitting withdrawal requests for BlockFi's initial bankruptcy assets is April 29 at 7:59, and user identity verification requests must be submitted by May 4 at 7:59.

2. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will begin trading Harvest Fund's Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs on April 30.

3. The sentencing hearing for Binance founder and former CEO Zhao Changpeng has been postponed to April 30, originally scheduled for February 23, 2024, at 9:00 AM Pacific Time (February 24, 1:00 AM Beijing Time).

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