The ripening bull market shifts towards narrative and hype; where are the opportunities for ordinary people?
This round of the bull market has catalyzed projects to quickly go public and become mainstream, with narrative and hype becoming key factors for VCs and users to judge whether it is worth investing.How can such a vast crypto space not accommodate a quiet desk?
How difficult is it to earn a return in crypto that belongs to faith and perseverance? Even if you scour the project's white paper and engage in community discussions day and night, what is it that you ultimately cannot escape? On a larger scale, there are risks of war, regulatory policies, and market liquidity; on a smaller scale, there are the project's technical layers, VC investment amounts, and the hardness of user consensus. Whether unexpected events or tomorrow comes first, your investment list could potentially roll back to the awkwardness of having nothing.
Thus, the theory of diversifying investments across eggs and baskets has become a prudent means of hedging against risks in a bull market.
This round of the bull market has catalyzed projects to quickly monetize, becoming mainstream. Narrative and hype have become key factors for VCs and users to judge whether an investment is worthwhile. Let's take a look at the changes in narrative hype since the beginning of this year:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains one of the strongest narratives in the first and second quarters of 2024. In 2023, AI was also a significant dominant narrative, occupying 30-50% of the hype for most of the year. This indicates that with the exponential growth of the entire AI field (not limited to the crypto bubble), AI verticals will continue to exist.
Since January 2024, SocialFi has seen the most significant changes in hype, driven by the revival of friend.tech, the explosive popularity of fantasy.top, and other well-known projects.
It is evident that meme coins have become one of the strongest narratives in the first and second quarters of 2024.
The hype around BRC20 has decreased the most, possibly due to narrative fatigue following the Bitcoin halving and a recent decline in interest in Ordinals/Runes. Notably, BRC20 occupied a significant amount of hype as a vertical field at the end of 2023.
Decentralized social (DeSoc) is also expected to become a strong competitor for dominant hype—projects like Farcaster, friend.tech, and DeSo are gaining attention.
Compared to the beginning of the year, the hype around GameFi narratives has decreased—many discussions suggest that only one breakout game is needed to revive the entire GameFi sector, but so far this year, we have not seen any major game releases.
With the announcement of the EIGEN token, the narratives around LSD and LRT have slightly declined compared to the beginning of the year, while major LRT protocols like Renzo and Etherfi have ended their point programs or first and second phase activities.
Although the situation is constantly changing, the overall trend during the cycle remains largely the same. What you should do is to prepare your shovel and food faster than others, and analyze the level of human greed more keenly. For instance, AI and memes have always been dominant narratives. The question is whether the hype in these two areas can be sustained. For AI, the theory is very clear, as there are many external factors, such as the continuously iterating ChatGPT model from OpenAI, AGI discussions, and NVIDIA, which may positively impact the AI vertical throughout the year. Memes also typically have no upper limit, entirely depending on market trends and culture.
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN), as infrastructure construction, will continue to receive more investment and returns as long as the bull market persists and demand continues to drive DePIN.
The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has played a significant role in the onset of the bull market. Now Bitcoin is also engaging in ecosystem development, especially since the Bitcoin halving has been completed this year, and miners' direct profits are gradually shifting towards the ecosystem, allowing both funds and users to continue having opportunities to play at the table. Similarly, Ethereum, as the king of ecosystems, has no reason to relinquish this aspect. If Ethereum ETFs are approved, Ethereum will also usher in its own shining moment. So please do not forget about Ethereum; although it is currently criticized and scorned, those who believe in Ethereum are surely supporting and paying attention quietly, because it is one of the two pillars of crypto, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are your ballast stones.
