The way to greatness is simplicity. How will Ton open the door to the long tail market of Web3?

Author: Zen, PANews

After more than a decade of development, the blockchain industry seems to have built up momentum and stands at the crossroads of large-scale application. From the summer of DeFi to the NFT craze, from the explosion of P2E games to the rise of Web3 social, and now to the hotly discussed concepts of "DePin" and "Web3+AI," there are countless ecosystems and projects in the industry. However, none have succeeded in promoting to the general public.

Overall, aside from some biases present in mainstream society, the complex concepts of blockchain and crypto applications such as smart contracts, addresses, and private key management are both innovations that distinguish them from traditional systems and shackles that are hard to shed. When trying to enhance users' perception of Web3 elements, it often results in high barriers, costs, and poor experiences, which has become a major reason restricting the widespread adoption of Web3.

However, technological innovation has never been a one-step process from emergence to completely changing the lives of ordinary people. It is certain that any emerging technology is not fully mature when it first enters the market and usually requires a long process of iterative upgrades. The saying "those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it" suggests that by learning from the experiences and practices of related industries or fields, more ideas and creativity can be gained, providing insights for the Web3 industry.

Large-scale applications require low barriers and simplification

Looking back at the exploration and development of the early computer industry, there are many similarities to the current predicament of Web3.

In the 1960s and 70s, computers were mainly used for academic research and government agencies. During this period, computers could only be operated through command lines, which were complex to program and operate, requiring users to possess considerable professional knowledge, resulting in high usage barriers. As the computer industry developed, its applications began to spread to more areas of the social economy. By the late 1970s, the entrepreneurial boom of personal computers emerged, with legendary figures like Jobs and Gates stepping onto the historical stage. What enabled them to establish their respective business empires was the graphical user interface (GUI), a display format that seems quite ordinary today.

The graphical user interface refers to a computer operating user interface that displays information graphically. It was initially developed by the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC). Compared to the command-line interface used in early computers, the graphical interface not only reduced the operational burden on users but was also visually more acceptable, significantly lowering the learning costs for new users.

In 1979, after discovering this technology at PARC, Jobs was immediately captivated by its charm. He quickly determined that this was the future of personal computers and applied this interface to Apple's products, subsequently releasing the Apple Lisa and Macintosh computers (often referred to as Mac). Microsoft followed suit by releasing the Windows 1.0 operating system, which utilized the GUI concept. With the commercialization of GUI, its intuitive, user-friendly, and easy-to-operate characteristics greatly lowered the barriers to computer usage, allowing users to operate computers without extensive professional knowledge. After more than a decade of technological iteration, personal computers became ordinary electronic products suitable for the general public. Steve Jobs and the Macintosh computer, January 1984

In fact, in the business world, there are countless successful cases that embody the principle of Occam's Razor. They all point to a common idea: that low-barrier, simplified products that reduce complexity are indeed suitable for the general public. Besides the graphical user interface as a typical example of user-friendly product transition, grasping the long-tail market in the internet industry is another secret to achieving commercial success.

Can the long-tail market be replicated in Web3?

With the emergence of e-commerce platforms and retail models, cultural and entertainment products began to break the limitations of physical reality, and the economy dominated by flow became a product of the old era. The hallmark theory of Web2.0, the "long-tail theory," thus emerged. This theory was initially used to describe the business and economic models of platforms like Amazon and Netflix. It points out that although the demand and sales of individual niche products are not high, due to their large numbers, their total demand is enormous, and their combined market share can be comparable to or even greater than that of popular products.

Today, the long-tail theory has been widely applied in various fields, and traditional asset management institutions, which were once staunch supporters of the "80/20" rule, have begun to shift their focus to "long-tail" investors beyond mid-to-high-end clients. However, in the current Web3 landscape, no ecosystem has yet been able to truly meet the personalized needs of different retail investors and create market scale through aggregation. Instead, the user PVP under the "Matthew Effect" has repeatedly pointed to the endgame of "80/20," causing retail investors to lose confidence and vitality.

To explore whether the long-tail market can be realized in the Web3 field, it is essential to clarify the basic conditions for leveraging this effect: extremely low costs for storing and disseminating products or resources; a large number of small niche markets and broad regional markets; and a vast network of users who can uncover and meet their personalized needs. Looking at the entire Web3 landscape, the project most capable of integrating conditions and resources to create a long-tail market is undoubtedly the TON ecosystem.

Why is the answer "TON"?

Although abbreviated as "TON," the current "TON" (The Open Network) is not entirely synonymous with the "TON" (Telegram Open Network) initiated by Telegram in 2019, which was canceled in 2020 after a series of legal disputes. The former is the result of continued advancement and output by the community and other developer teams. Even though "TON" has lost its direct connection with Telegram, it can still be seen as a "successor" supported by Telegram's official team and its founder Pavel Durov, being the only public chain officially recognized by Telegram.

As a privacy-focused encrypted communication tool, Telegram's cultural gene naturally aligns with cryptocurrency, and since its inception in 2013, it has been a gathering place for the cryptocurrency community. Today, Telegram has reached 900 million users, with users spread across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. It is also the fastest-growing mainstream instant messaging software, with an annual growth rate of 20%, expected to surpass 1 billion users this year. Therefore, the unique advantage of reaching nearly a billion users is the greatest strength of the TON ecosystem compared to other native crypto ecosystems. Such a vast potential user base makes it hard for other crypto projects to compete.

In addition to the "mass strategy," the simple and open Web3 ecosystem that can be built on Telegram bots is another killer feature of TON. Telegram bots are applications on the Telegram platform that help users execute transactions, provide information, or offer gaming services, among other functions. They require no installation and provide a flexible interactive interface, similar to mini-programs in WeChat, with over 360 million users using them each month. Just as the graphical user interface greatly simplified computer operations, Telegram's mini-programs allow TON ecosystem users to interact smoothly with various applications within the ecosystem while remaining in the chat interface, without having to navigate through multiple web pages repeatedly.

Moreover, the vast and diverse user base from around the world naturally possesses rich needs and interests, providing a potentially huge long-tail market for the TON ecosystem. Additionally, the ease of development and integration of Telegram Bots allows developers to quickly create and publish various bots with different functionalities. This low-cost development and distribution model is conducive to the emergence of the long-tail market. Furthermore, leveraging the natural advantages of Telegram's communication and social features, bots are also extremely convenient for community dissemination and promotion, making it easy to achieve viral marketing within target audiences and their communities.

Creating hit products like Notcoin and Catizen

Low entry barriers + effective social media dissemination = hit products. This formula has been repeatedly validated in Web2. Recent examples include the phenomenon of the WeChat mini-game "Sheep a Sheep" in 2022, as well as earlier games like "Jump Jump" and various mini-games in early QQ Space such as "QQ Farm" and "Parking Wars."

In fact, this formula is still applicable in Web3 and has already shown signs in the TON ecosystem. The Telegram game project Notcoin reached 35 million active users in just a few months this year, with gameplay that simply involves clicking the screen to earn in-game currency. Pavel Durov previously praised it in a post, stating that it demonstrated the strong influence of the Telegram/TON ecosystem on application developers. After Notcoin gained immense popularity and launched on Binance and OKX, its token's excellent performance further attracted users' attention to the TON ecosystem.

The success of Notcoin indicates that the TON ecosystem not only has the potential to integrate niche markets to form a "long tail," but its inherent high traffic advantage also holds promise for creating flagship products. For instance, the cat game Catizen, which combines concepts of the metaverse, GameFi, and AI, maintains a simplified and easy-to-operate style, but does not compromise on the gaming experience like Notcoin.

In terms of incentive mechanisms, Catizen adopts a play-to-airdrop model, aiming to attract players through fun and allow them to gain additional benefits while playing the game. Since the Beta test version launched on March 19, 2024, Catizen has quickly become one of the hottest GameFi mini-programs in the Telegram x TON ecosystem. Currently, Catizen's user base has surpassed 20 million, achieving a user growth of 5 million in just the first week of June, with its on-chain user base also surging to over 1 million and peak daily active users reaching 3.4 million. Additionally, in the second and third seasons of The Open League, Catizen has consistently topped the ecosystem application rankings. This mini-game, which has received strong support from the TON ecosystem, has the potential to become another phenomenon after Notcoin.

Thanks to its vast user base and unique Web3 ecosystem, combined with the ease of development of Telegram bots, user-friendly interfaces, and smooth operational experiences, the still-early-stage TON (The Open Network) is showing immense potential that is gaining wider recognition. Pantera Capital has made a significant investment, marking the largest investment in its history.

Currently, the industry's extensive attention on phenomenon products like Notcoin and Catizen, which have millions of users, has overshadowed TON's influence in launching hit applications and in broader, more sustainable global niche markets. For the reasons mentioned above, the TON ecosystem is undoubtedly becoming a vibrant platform. However, its long-term success still requires time to validate.