About the Certainty of Investment

A reader asked the following question in the comments section:

In a situation where one can invest enough time, has strong execution ability, and sufficient willingness to learn, how can one relatively quickly go from zero to one hundred thousand dollars in the blockchain industry?

Seeing this question, I felt a bit complicated:

First, I thought that sometimes people really need luck. Sometimes the importance of luck may outweigh all other factors.

My entry into this ecosystem was luck.

Looking back to when I first started writing articles in 2019, I set the Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging price at only $8,000 to $10,000, and the Ethereum dollar-cost averaging price at only $400.

In hindsight, conservatively speaking, under the market conditions of that year, it would have taken less than $20,000 in principal to reach $100,000 in two years.

However, time flies, and just a few short years later, such conditions can no longer be replicated.

In today's market conditions, for the new generation entering this ecosystem, although there are still many opportunities, can they still achieve the same returns in two years with the same efforts and sweat we put in back then, like those lucky ones?

I am not sure, and I am afraid it is difficult to give precise advice.

However, there is one perspective that I believe should be applicable in any era, which is an old saying from our ancestors: "Wealth does not enter through a hasty door."

I suggest that new generation investors who wish to enter and cultivate this ecosystem should not be too eager when entering. It is best to approach the various phenomena in this ecosystem with a calm and rational mindset, especially when viewing those "get rich quick" myths with a level head.

When I entered this ecosystem back then, I was also excited and invigorated by those get-rich myths. But as time has passed, I have become very indifferent to those experiences. The only other type of experience that I still find precious, nostalgic, and often motivating is:

When I sought advice from seniors in this ecosystem about certain questions, especially regarding the spirit of blockchain, the values of the blockchain ecosystem, and the value orientation of blockchain project performance, the scene of that senior patiently guiding me.

At that time, the senior often spent hours or even half a day discussing a couple of questions with me, sharing his understanding of values and value orientation through the history of Bitcoin, his experiences, and his insights on how he viewed and understood a project.

As a result, today, whenever I see some of the senior's viewpoints, I don’t need to read his words closely; I can guess why he thinks that way and what his reasoning is.

When discussing issues with seniors, I would forget about the fluctuations in coin prices, market trends, and the myths of getting rich quickly. I would look at a project’s past, present, and future from a fundamental perspective. I would consider whether a project's development aligns with the trends of this ecosystem, whether its characteristics match the values of this ecosystem, and whether it is a genuine blockchain project or a fake one in disguise.

If I can think through these questions, then when we look at a project, we can naturally judge its value, envision its future prospects and potential, and when a good project's price plummets, we won't panic but instead will be delighted to increase our positions. We will still be able to see the infinite brightness ahead even when the entire market is in despair.

However, if someone had asked me back in that era: With your current mindset and operations, how long will it take to earn XXX?

I certainly wouldn't have been able to answer back then because I couldn't predict whether I would have the luck to earn XXX, nor could I know when such luck would appear, even if I had it.

But now, when I encounter such questions, I firmly believe: If one can truly invest enough time, exert strong execution, and have a great willingness to learn, although I cannot predict when the opportunity to earn XXX will arise, such opportunities will definitely come.